Not a betting line.Every score, yard total and percentage here is this site's own projection, built from its power index and its game simulator. They are estimates for fun and for talking football, and they will miss.
The site works these out ahead of time, about every 12 hours, not each time the page is opened. A game's projection is locked the moment it kicks off, so the record of picks below is what was said before each game.
Last worked out .
25 of 34 picks right this weekScore margin off by 12.1 a game58 games
Jacksonville State wins 80% of the time by this site's index.
In a thousand simulated games, 33% were decided by 7 or fewer and 26% by 21 or more.
The real game ended Jacksonville State 27, Kennesaw State 26.
How the projection did
RightJacksonville State won
27-26final, projected 29-18
10points off on the margin
6points off on the total (53 scored, 47 projected)
The projected yards and first downs are compared with the real ones once this game's plays are pulled in.
Florida InternationalScores 18.0 a game, allows 14.5
Florida International wins 79% of the time by this site's index.
In a thousand simulated games, 40% were decided by 7 or fewer and 15% by 21 or more.
The real game ended New Mexico State 3, Florida International 22.
How the projection did
RightFlorida International won
3-22final, projected 17-27
9points off on the margin
19points off on the total (25 scored, 44 projected)
The projected yards and first downs are compared with the real ones once this game's plays are pulled in.
Liberty wins 79% of the time by this site's index.
In a thousand simulated games, 34% were decided by 7 or fewer and 25% by 21 or more.
The real game ended Sam Houston 3, Liberty 35.
How the projection did
RightLiberty won
3-35final, projected 20-30
22points off on the margin
12points off on the total (38 scored, 50 projected)
The projected yards and first downs are compared with the real ones once this game's plays are pulled in.
Western Kentucky wins 50% of the time by this site's index.
In a thousand simulated games, 44% were decided by 7 or fewer and 15% by 21 or more.
The real game ended Missouri State 13, Western Kentucky 34.
How the projection did
RightWestern Kentucky won
13-34final, projected 29-30
20points off on the margin
12points off on the total (47 scored, 59 projected)
The projected yards and first downs are compared with the real ones once this game's plays are pulled in.
UTSA wins 53% of the time by this site's index.
In a thousand simulated games, 40% were decided by 7 or fewer and 16% by 21 or more.
The real game ended South Florida 24, UTSA 31.
How the projection did
RightUTSA won
24-31final, projected 24-25
6points off on the margin
6points off on the total (55 scored, 49 projected)
The projected yards and first downs are compared with the real ones once this game's plays are pulled in.
Arkansas State wins 72% of the time by this site's index.
In a thousand simulated games, 44% were decided by 7 or fewer and 18% by 21 or more.
The real game ended South Alabama 56, Arkansas State 49.
How the projection did
WrongSouth Alabama won
56-49final, projected 25-32
14points off on the margin
48points off on the total (105 scored, 57 projected)
The projected yards and first downs are compared with the real ones once this game's plays are pulled in.
Louisville wins 71% of the time by this site's index.
In a thousand simulated games, 39% were decided by 7 or fewer and 22% by 21 or more.
The real game ended Florida State 20, Louisville 44.
How the projection did
RightLouisville won
20-44final, projected 27-34
17points off on the margin
3points off on the total (64 scored, 61 projected)
The projected yards and first downs are compared with the real ones once this game's plays are pulled in.
Iowa wins 54% of the time by this site's index.
In a thousand simulated games, 46% were decided by 7 or fewer and 13% by 21 or more.
The real game ended Iowa 41, Washington 24.
How the projection did
RightIowa won
41-24final, projected 22-21
16points off on the margin
22points off on the total (65 scored, 43 projected)
The projected yards and first downs are compared with the real ones once this game's plays are pulled in.
Utah State wins 66% of the time by this site's index.
In a thousand simulated games, 41% were decided by 7 or fewer and 15% by 21 or more.
The real game ended Washington State 16, Utah State 17.
How the projection did
RightUtah State won
16-17final, projected 18-23
4points off on the margin
8points off on the total (33 scored, 41 projected)
The projected yards and first downs are compared with the real ones once this game's plays are pulled in.
San José State wins 65% of the time by this site's index.
In a thousand simulated games, 45% were decided by 7 or fewer and 15% by 21 or more.
The real game ended Wyoming 16, San José State 13.
How the projection did
WrongWyoming won
16-13final, projected 19-23
7points off on the margin
13points off on the total (29 scored, 42 projected)
The projected yards and first downs are compared with the real ones once this game's plays are pulled in.
BYU wins 98% of the time by this site's index.
In a thousand simulated games, 18% were decided by 7 or fewer and 50% by 21 or more.
The real game ended Iowa State 10, BYU 24.
How the projection did
RightBYU won
10-24final, projected 12-41
15points off on the margin
19points off on the total (34 scored, 53 projected)
The projected yards and first downs are compared with the real ones once this game's plays are pulled in.
Missouri wins 91% of the time by this site's index.
In a thousand simulated games, 38% were decided by 7 or fewer and 21% by 21 or more.
The real game ended Texas A&M 6, Missouri 27.
How the projection did
RightMissouri won
6-27final, projected 18-36
3points off on the margin
21points off on the total (33 scored, 54 projected)
The projected yards and first downs are compared with the real ones once this game's plays are pulled in.
Arizona wins 90% of the time by this site's index.
In a thousand simulated games, 22% were decided by 7 or fewer and 46% by 21 or more.
The real game ended Arizona 52, West Virginia 31.
How the projection did
RightArizona won
52-31final, projected 37-20
4points off on the margin
26points off on the total (83 scored, 57 projected)
The projected yards and first downs are compared with the real ones once this game's plays are pulled in.
Oklahoma State wins 69% of the time by this site's index.
In a thousand simulated games, 40% were decided by 7 or fewer and 14% by 21 or more.
The real game ended UCF 28, Oklahoma State 42.
How the projection did
RightOklahoma State won
28-42final, projected 24-30
8points off on the margin
16points off on the total (70 scored, 54 projected)
The projected yards and first downs are compared with the real ones once this game's plays are pulled in.
Pittsburgh wins 93% of the time by this site's index.
In a thousand simulated games, 26% were decided by 7 or fewer and 38% by 21 or more.
The real game ended North Carolina 21, Pittsburgh 17.
How the projection did
WrongNorth Carolina won
21-17final, projected 14-34
24points off on the margin
10points off on the total (38 scored, 48 projected)
The projected yards and first downs are compared with the real ones once this game's plays are pulled in.
Wake Forest wins 75% of the time by this site's index.
In a thousand simulated games, 48% were decided by 7 or fewer and 15% by 21 or more.
The real game ended Wake Forest 38, NC State 14.
How the projection did
RightWake Forest won
38-14final, projected 35-26
15points off on the margin
9points off on the total (52 scored, 61 projected)
The projected yards and first downs are compared with the real ones once this game's plays are pulled in.
Indiana wins 54% of the time by this site's index.
In a thousand simulated games, 43% were decided by 7 or fewer and 15% by 21 or more.
The real game ended Indiana 20, Nebraska 17.
How the projection did
RightIndiana won
20-17final, projected 29-28
2points off on the margin
20points off on the total (37 scored, 57 projected)
Army wins 69% of the time by this site's index.
In a thousand simulated games, 32% were decided by 7 or fewer and 26% by 21 or more.
The real game ended Tulane 17, Army 20.
How the projection did
RightArmy won
17-20final, projected 21-27
3points off on the margin
11points off on the total (37 scored, 48 projected)
The projected yards and first downs are compared with the real ones once this game's plays are pulled in.
Bowling Green wins 66% of the time by this site's index.
In a thousand simulated games, 40% were decided by 7 or fewer and 18% by 21 or more.
The real game ended Sacramento State 10, Bowling Green 38.
How the projection did
RightBowling Green won
10-38final, projected 20-25
23points off on the margin
3points off on the total (48 scored, 45 projected)
The projected yards and first downs are compared with the real ones once this game's plays are pulled in.
Northwestern wins 98% of the time by this site's index.
In a thousand simulated games, 25% were decided by 7 or fewer and 38% by 21 or more.
The real game ended Ball State 14, Northwestern 45.
How the projection did
RightNorthwestern won
14-45final, projected 12-41
2points off on the margin
6points off on the total (59 scored, 53 projected)
The projected yards and first downs are compared with the real ones once this game's plays are pulled in.
Florida wins 84% of the time by this site's index.
In a thousand simulated games, 39% were decided by 7 or fewer and 23% by 21 or more.
The real game ended South Carolina 38, Florida 19.
How the projection did
WrongSouth Carolina won
38-19final, projected 28-41
32points off on the margin
12points off on the total (57 scored, 69 projected)
The projected yards and first downs are compared with the real ones once this game's plays are pulled in.
App State wins 80% of the time by this site's index.
In a thousand simulated games, 33% were decided by 7 or fewer and 25% by 21 or more.
The real game ended Old Dominion 10, App State 3.
How the projection did
WrongOld Dominion won
10-3final, projected 22-33
18points off on the margin
42points off on the total (13 scored, 55 projected)
The projected yards and first downs are compared with the real ones once this game's plays are pulled in.
Massachusetts wins 53% of the time by this site's index.
In a thousand simulated games, 42% were decided by 7 or fewer and 18% by 21 or more.
The real game ended Miami (OH) 20, Massachusetts 19.
How the projection did
WrongMiami (OH) won
20-19final, projected 26-27
2points off on the margin
14points off on the total (39 scored, 53 projected)
The projected yards and first downs are compared with the real ones once this game's plays are pulled in.
Houston wins 72% of the time by this site's index.
In a thousand simulated games, 39% were decided by 7 or fewer and 20% by 21 or more.
The real game ended Houston 35, Kansas State 16.
How the projection did
RightHouston won
35-16final, projected 33-26
12points off on the margin
8points off on the total (51 scored, 59 projected)
The projected yards and first downs are compared with the real ones once this game's plays are pulled in.
Duke wins 82% of the time by this site's index.
In a thousand simulated games, 35% were decided by 7 or fewer and 26% by 21 or more.
The real game ended Duke 25, Georgia Tech 28.
How the projection did
WrongGeorgia Tech won
25-28final, projected 31-19
15points off on the margin
3points off on the total (53 scored, 50 projected)
The projected yards and first downs are compared with the real ones once this game's plays are pulled in.
Notre Dame wins >99% of the time by this site's index.
In a thousand simulated games, 2% were decided by 7 or fewer and 88% by 21 or more.
The real game ended Stanford 7, Notre Dame 58.
How the projection did
RightNotre Dame won
7-58final, projected 6-49
8points off on the margin
10points off on the total (65 scored, 55 projected)
The projected yards and first downs are compared with the real ones once this game's plays are pulled in.
Virginia Tech wins 83% of the time by this site's index.
In a thousand simulated games, 35% were decided by 7 or fewer and 24% by 21 or more.
The real game ended Virginia Tech 20, California 25.
How the projection did
WrongCalifornia won
20-25final, projected 35-23
17points off on the margin
13points off on the total (45 scored, 58 projected)
The projected yards and first downs are compared with the real ones once this game's plays are pulled in.
North Texas wins 98% of the time by this site's index.
In a thousand simulated games, 13% were decided by 7 or fewer and 62% by 21 or more.
The real game ended Charlotte 10, North Texas 50.
How the projection did
RightNorth Texas won
10-50final, projected 17-49
8points off on the margin
6points off on the total (60 scored, 66 projected)
The projected yards and first downs are compared with the real ones once this game's plays are pulled in.
Navy wins 61% of the time by this site's index.
In a thousand simulated games, 39% were decided by 7 or fewer and 18% by 21 or more.
The real game ended Tulsa 26, Navy 34.
How the projection did
RightNavy won
26-34final, projected 23-26
5points off on the margin
11points off on the total (60 scored, 49 projected)
The projected yards and first downs are compared with the real ones once this game's plays are pulled in.
Eastern Michigan wins 62% of the time by this site's index.
In a thousand simulated games, 36% were decided by 7 or fewer and 22% by 21 or more.
The real game ended Eastern Michigan 25, Akron 23.
How the projection did
RightEastern Michigan won
25-23final, projected 27-23
2points off on the margin
2points off on the total (48 scored, 50 projected)
The projected yards and first downs are compared with the real ones once this game's plays are pulled in.
Toledo wins 96% of the time by this site's index.
In a thousand simulated games, 27% were decided by 7 or fewer and 33% by 21 or more.
The real game ended Buffalo 23, Toledo 8.
How the projection did
WrongBuffalo won
23-8final, projected 17-42
40points off on the margin
28points off on the total (31 scored, 59 projected)
The projected yards and first downs are compared with the real ones once this game's plays are pulled in.
Ohio wins 78% of the time by this site's index.
In a thousand simulated games, 31% were decided by 7 or fewer and 30% by 21 or more.
The real game ended Central Michigan 14, Ohio 31.
How the projection did
RightOhio won
14-31final, projected 19-29
7points off on the margin
3points off on the total (45 scored, 48 projected)
The projected yards and first downs are compared with the real ones once this game's plays are pulled in.
Western Michigan wins 85% of the time by this site's index.
In a thousand simulated games, 35% were decided by 7 or fewer and 26% by 21 or more.
The real game ended Kent State 7, Western Michigan 38.
How the projection did
RightWestern Michigan won
7-38final, projected 16-29
18points off on the margin
0points off on the total (45 scored, 45 projected)
The projected yards and first downs are compared with the real ones once this game's plays are pulled in.
East Carolina wins 92% of the time by this site's index.
In a thousand simulated games, 32% were decided by 7 or fewer and 25% by 21 or more.
The real game ended Rice 12, East Carolina 28.
How the projection did
RightEast Carolina won
12-28final, projected 15-33
2points off on the margin
8points off on the total (40 scored, 48 projected)
The projected yards and first downs are compared with the real ones once this game's plays are pulled in.
How these are made: who wins, how likely and by how much come from the power index, the same model behind the rest of this page. Total points come from what each offense scores and each defense allows a game. Yards, first downs and turnovers are the average of a thousand simulated games between the two teams, so a team's yards and its score do not always line up neatly.
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