Not official.These are projections from this site's own model, built on its power index. They are not the playoff committee's rankings or any bowl's actual selections, and early in the season they move a lot from week to week.
Uses only the games played so far, plus any results you set in the what-if section. 453 games are still to be played.
Pick the winner of any game that has not been played. The rankings, the playoff field, the bracket and the bowls on this page are rebuilt around your results. Click a pick again to clear it.
The percentage is each team's chance to win as the model sees it. The small number is this page's ranking. Your results change records and strength of record. They do not change how good the model thinks a team is.
The percentage is each team's chance in that game. The favorite advances. The top four seeds get a first-round bye, and lower seeds play at the higher seed's stadium in the first round. Quarterfinal and semifinal sites are the real ones for the 2026 season, handed out here by region.
| Seed | Team | Record | How they got in | Reach semifinal | Reach final | Win title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alabama | 5-0 | SEC champion | 77% | 50% | 27% |
| 2 | Notre Dame | 6-0 | Ranked in the top 12 | 69% | 37% | 21% |
| 3 | Georgia | 5-0 | At-large | 78% | 45% | 27% |
| 4 | BYU | 5-0 | Big 12 champion | 58% | 26% | 10% |
| 5 | Miami | 5-0 | ACC champion | 40% | 16% | 6% |
| 6 | Indiana | 6-0 | At-large | 16% | 5% | 2% |
| 7 | Ohio State | 6-1 | Big Ten champion | 26% | 10% | 4% |
| 8 | UCLA | 5-0 | At-large | 8% | 2% | <1% |
| 9 | Utah | 4-0 | At-large | 16% | 6% | 2% |
| 10 | Texas | 4-1 | At-large | 5% | 1% | <1% |
| 11 | Missouri | 5-1 | At-large | 6% | 1% | <1% |
| 12 | North Dakota State | 5-0 | Mountain West champion | 2% | <1% | Out |
First four out: Texas Tech (5-0), Mississippi State (4-1), Houston (5-1), LSU (4-1). The four power conference champions and the best champion from the other six conferences are in automatically. Notre Dame is in if it is ranked in the top 12. Seeds follow the ranking straight down.
Pick: Nebraska by 2
Pick: LSU by 12
Pick: Texas Tech in a toss-up
Pick: Houston by 3
Pick: Oklahoma by 4
Pick: Virginia Tech by 5
Pick: Iowa by 3
Pick: Arizona by 8
Pick: Northwestern by 3
Pick: Oregon by 10
Pick: Baylor by 3
Pick: James Madison by 12
Pick: USC by 12
Pick: Michigan by 3
Pick: Florida State by 2
Pick: Memphis by 3
Pick: Kansas by 4
Pick: Florida by 6
Pick: East Carolina by 1
Pick: North Texas by 1
Pick: Kansas State by 5
Pick: New Mexico by 3
Pick: Air Force by 2
Pick: UNLV by 1
Pick: Wisconsin by 6
Pick: Louisiana by 9
Pick: Louisiana Tech by 5
Pick: Minnesota by 3
Pick: App State by 4
Pick: UCF by 12
Pick: Penn State by 4
Pick: Louisville by 5
Pick: Virginia by 4
Pick: Illinois in a toss-up
Pick: NC State by 2
With the season young, a team counts as on pace for a bowl if it has won at least half its games. Each bowl takes the best team left from the conferences it has a deal with. When a conference runs out of teams, the best team left from anywhere fills the spot. Real selections also weigh travel, rematches and ticket sales, which this does not.
| Rank | Team | Record | Projected | Expected wins | Chance of 6 wins | Chance to win out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alabama | 5-0 | 11-1 | 11.0 | >99% | 29% |
| 2 | Notre Dame | 6-0 | 11-1 | 11.1 | >99% | 33% |
| 3 | Georgia | 5-0 | 11-1 | 11.1 | >99% | 30% |
| 4 | BYU | 5-0 | 10-2 | 10.4 | >99% | 13% |
| 5 | Miami | 5-0 | 11-1 | 10.8 | >99% | 16% |
| 6 | Indiana | 6-0 | 11-1 | 10.7 | >99% | 20% |
| 7 | Ohio State | 6-1 | 10-2 | 9.8 | >99% | 22% |
| 8 | UCLA | 5-0 | 11-1 | 10.8 | >99% | 24% |
| 9 | Utah | 4-0 | 10-2 | 10.1 | >99% | 10% |
| 10 | Texas | 4-1 | 9-3 | 8.8 | >99% | 4% |
| 11 | Missouri | 5-1 | 9-3 | 8.9 | >99% | 3% |
| 12 | Texas Tech | 5-0 | 10-2 | 9.5 | >99% | 4% |
| 13 | Mississippi State | 4-1 | 9-3 | 8.6 | >99% | 2% |
| 14 | Houston | 5-1 | 10-2 | 9.5 | >99% | 13% |
| 15 | LSU | 4-1 | 9-3 | 9.3 | >99% | 12% |
| 16 | Nebraska | 5-1 | 9-3 | 9.4 | >99% | 11% |
| 17 | Arizona | 5-1 | 9-3 | 9.1 | >99% | 8% |
| 18 | North Dakota State | 5-0 | 11-1 | 11.0 | >99% | 26% |
| 19 | James Madison | 5-0 | 11-1 | 10.9 | >99% | 29% |
| 20 | Wake Forest | 5-1 | 10-2 | 9.7 | >99% | 20% |
| 21 | Oklahoma | 3-2 | 7-5 | 7.4 | 95% | 2% |
| 22 | Pittsburgh | 5-1 | 9-3 | 9.4 | >99% | 8% |
| 23 | Iowa | 5-1 | 9-3 | 8.9 | >99% | 6% |
| 24 | Ole Miss | 4-1 | 7-5 | 6.8 | 90% | <1% |
| 25 | Boise State | 4-1 | 9-2 | 8.9 | >99% | 26% |
| 26 | Northwestern | 4-1 | 8-4 | 7.9 | 99% | <1% |
| 27 | Baylor | 4-1 | 7-5 | 7.4 | 95% | <1% |
| 28 | Kentucky | 4-1 | 7-5 | 6.7 | 84% | <1% |
| 29 | Oregon | 3-2 | 7-5 | 7.2 | 93% | 1% |
| 30 | New Mexico | 4-1 | 10-2 | 9.8 | >99% | 24% |
| 31 | Liberty | 5-1 | 10-2 | 10.5 | >99% | 57% |
| 32 | Oklahoma State | 4-1 | 8-4 | 7.6 | 96% | <1% |
| 33 | SMU | 4-1 | 8-4 | 8.3 | >99% | <1% |
| 34 | Tennessee | 5-1 | 8-4 | 7.8 | 99% | <1% |
| 35 | USC | 5-2 | 7-5 | 7.4 | 98% | 1% |
| 36 | Georgia State | 4-1 | 9-3 | 9.2 | >99% | 9% |
| 37 | UTSA | 5-1 | 8-4 | 8.4 | >99% | 3% |
| 38 | Memphis | 4-1 | 9-3 | 8.7 | >99% | 5% |
| 39 | Florida | 4-2 | 7-5 | 6.6 | 84% | <1% |
| 40 | Kansas | 2-2 | 7-5 | 6.6 | 81% | <1% |
| 41 | Cincinnati | 4-1 | 6-6 | 6.3 | 76% | <1% |
| 42 | Air Force | 3-1 | 9-3 | 9.2 | >99% | 9% |
| 43 | Michigan | 3-2 | 7-5 | 6.7 | 87% | <1% |
| 44 | Fresno State | 4-1 | 8-3 | 7.9 | >99% | 6% |
| 45 | Wisconsin | 4-2 | 7-5 | 7.0 | 91% | <1% |
| 46 | Louisiana | 4-1 | 9-3 | 9.2 | >99% | 8% |
| 47 | Minnesota | 4-1 | 6-6 | 5.9 | 63% | <1% |
| 48 | Florida Atlantic | 4-1 | 8-4 | 7.8 | 97% | 1% |
| 49 | Oregon State | 4-2 | 7-4 | 7.4 | 99% | 11% |
| 50 | East Carolina | 3-2 | 8-4 | 8.1 | 99% | 9% |
| 51 | Virginia Tech | 4-2 | 8-4 | 7.7 | 99% | 2% |
| 52 | Kansas State | 3-2 | 7-5 | 6.8 | 85% | 1% |
| 53 | Auburn | 3-2 | 6-6 | 5.7 | 58% | <1% |
| 54 | Duke | 4-1 | 7-5 | 7.2 | 94% | <1% |
| 55 | Clemson | 3-2 | 7-5 | 6.6 | 83% | <1% |
| 56 | North Carolina | 3-2 | 5-7 | 5.5 | 49% | <1% |
| 57 | UCF | 3-3 | 6-6 | 5.8 | 61% | <1% |
| 58 | North Texas | 4-2 | 8-4 | 7.8 | 98% | 5% |
| 59 | Louisiana Tech | 2-2 | 8-4 | 7.7 | 96% | 5% |
| 60 | Penn State | 3-2 | 7-5 | 7.2 | 92% | 2% |
| 61 | Jacksonville State | 4-2 | 9-3 | 8.8 | >99% | 25% |
| 62 | Arizona State | 2-2 | 5-7 | 4.8 | 25% | <1% |
| 63 | Florida State | 3-3 | 6-6 | 5.7 | 57% | <1% |
| 64 | Syracuse | 2-2 | 5-7 | 5.5 | 50% | <1% |
| 65 | Louisville | 3-3 | 7-5 | 6.8 | 88% | 5% |
| 66 | Texas A&M | 3-3 | 5-7 | 5.3 | 42% | <1% |
| 67 | South Florida | 4-2 | 8-4 | 7.9 | 99% | 5% |
| 68 | Virginia | 3-2 | 7-5 | 6.5 | 80% | <1% |
| 69 | Iowa State | 3-3 | 5-7 | 4.7 | 23% | <1% |
| 70 | TCU | 2-3 | 4-8 | 4.4 | 17% | <1% |
| 71 | Purdue | 2-3 | 4-8 | 4.4 | 17% | <1% |
| 72 | Troy | 3-2 | 7-5 | 6.6 | 84% | <1% |
| 73 | South Carolina | 3-3 | 5-7 | 5.0 | 30% | <1% |
| 74 | Toledo | 4-2 | 8-4 | 8.4 | >99% | 14% |
| 75 | Vanderbilt | 3-3 | 5-7 | 4.8 | 20% | <1% |
| 76 | UNLV | 3-2 | 7-5 | 7.1 | 95% | <1% |
| 77 | Ohio | 4-2 | 8-4 | 7.7 | 97% | 4% |
| 78 | Colorado | 2-3 | 4-8 | 4.3 | 15% | <1% |
| 79 | Army | 3-2 | 6-6 | 5.6 | 53% | <1% |
| 80 | App State | 3-2 | 7-5 | 6.8 | 88% | <1% |
| 81 | Maryland | 2-4 | 5-7 | 4.9 | 30% | <1% |
| 82 | Texas State | 2-3 | 6-5 | 5.6 | 55% | 2% |
| 83 | Florida International | 3-2 | 7-5 | 6.7 | 86% | <1% |
| 84 | Western Michigan | 4-2 | 8-4 | 7.5 | 97% | 2% |
| 85 | Illinois | 3-3 | 4-8 | 4.2 | 9% | <1% |
| 86 | UAB | 3-2 | 6-6 | 5.7 | 53% | <1% |
| 87 | NC State | 3-3 | 6-6 | 6.3 | 76% | 2% |
| 88 | Michigan State | 2-4 | 4-8 | 4.3 | 12% | <1% |
| 89 | Massachusetts | 4-2 | 8-4 | 8.1 | >99% | 6% |
| 90 | Navy | 2-3 | 6-6 | 5.7 | 58% | <1% |
| 91 | Tulsa | 3-3 | 7-5 | 6.8 | 88% | 5% |
| 92 | Washington | 3-3 | 5-7 | 4.5 | 16% | <1% |
| 93 | Georgia Southern | 2-3 | 5-7 | 5.3 | 42% | <1% |
| 94 | California | 3-3 | 5-7 | 4.6 | 16% | <1% |
| 95 | Marshall | 3-2 | 6-6 | 5.9 | 61% | <1% |
| 96 | Miami (OH) | 3-3 | 7-5 | 7.1 | 93% | 9% |
| 97 | West Virginia | 3-3 | 4-8 | 3.9 | 3% | <1% |
| 98 | Boston College | 2-3 | 3-9 | 3.4 | 2% | <1% |
| 99 | Sam Houston | 1-4 | 6-6 | 6.3 | 81% | 12% |
| 100 | South Alabama | 4-2 | 6-6 | 5.8 | 61% | <1% |
| 101 | UConn | 3-3 | 6-6 | 6.0 | 68% | <1% |
| 102 | Central Michigan | 3-3 | 6-6 | 5.9 | 63% | 1% |
| 103 | Georgia Tech | 2-3 | 4-8 | 3.6 | 3% | <1% |
| 104 | Tulane | 2-3 | 5-7 | 4.8 | 26% | <1% |
| 105 | Stanford | 2-4 | 4-8 | 3.7 | 2% | <1% |
| 106 | Colorado State | 2-3 | 4-7 | 3.8 | 4% | <1% |
| 107 | Eastern Michigan | 4-3 | 6-6 | 6.4 | 80% | 2% |
| 108 | Arkansas | 2-4 | 3-9 | 2.6 | <1% | <1% |
| 109 | San José State | 3-3 | 6-7 | 5.7 | 57% | <1% |
| 110 | Delaware | 2-3 | 5-7 | 5.1 | 36% | <1% |
| 111 | Temple | 2-4 | 5-7 | 4.8 | 24% | <1% |
| 112 | Utah State | 2-4 | 4-7 | 3.5 | 2% | <1% |
| 113 | Rutgers | 2-4 | 3-9 | 2.8 | <1% | <1% |
| 114 | Wyoming | 3-3 | 5-7 | 5.1 | 31% | <1% |
| 115 | Arkansas State | 2-4 | 5-7 | 4.9 | 29% | <1% |
| 116 | Old Dominion | 2-4 | 4-8 | 4.4 | 16% | <1% |
| 117 | Middle Tennessee | 2-3 | 4-8 | 4.1 | 10% | <1% |
| 118 | San Diego State | 2-4 | 4-7 | 3.6 | 2% | <1% |
| 119 | Buffalo | 3-3 | 6-6 | 5.5 | 50% | <1% |
| 120 | Western Kentucky | 2-4 | 3-9 | 3.4 | 2% | <1% |
| 121 | Kennesaw State | 1-4 | 4-8 | 4.3 | 15% | <1% |
| 122 | Rice | 1-5 | 3-9 | 3.0 | 1% | <1% |
| 123 | New Mexico State | 2-4 | 4-8 | 4.1 | 9% | <1% |
| 124 | Nevada | 1-3 | 3-9 | 3.3 | 2% | <1% |
| 125 | Kent State | 2-4 | 4-8 | 3.8 | 6% | <1% |
| 126 | Northern Illinois | 0-4 | 2-10 | 2.4 | <1% | <1% |
| 127 | Southern Miss | 1-4 | 3-9 | 3.2 | 2% | <1% |
| 128 | Coastal Carolina | 1-4 | 3-9 | 2.8 | <1% | <1% |
| 129 | Missouri State | 1-4 | 3-9 | 2.7 | <1% | <1% |
| 130 | Hawai'i | 1-4 | 4-8 | 3.6 | 3% | <1% |
| 131 | Sacramento State | 1-5 | 4-8 | 4.4 | 17% | 3% |
| 132 | Ball State | 1-5 | 3-9 | 3.2 | 2% | <1% |
| 133 | Bowling Green | 2-4 | 3-9 | 3.4 | 2% | <1% |
| 134 | Washington State | 1-5 | 2-9 | 2.2 | <1% | <1% |
| 135 | UTEP | 1-4 | 2-10 | 2.1 | <1% | <1% |
| 136 | Akron | 1-5 | 3-9 | 2.7 | <1% | <1% |
| 137 | UL Monroe | 0-5 | 1-11 | 1.3 | <1% | <1% |
| 138 | Charlotte | 0-6 | 0-12 | 0.4 | <1% | <1% |
No team matches that.
Rank is this page's committee-style ranking: half the power index, half strength of record. Projected is the record a team is most likely to finish near, from its chance in each remaining game. Bowls and playoff games are not counted in these records, and a conference title game counts only once it is on the schedule.
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