Not official.These are projections from this site's own model, built on its power index. They are not the playoff committee's rankings or any bowl's actual selections, and early in the season they move a lot from week to week.
Uses only the games played so far, plus any results you set in the what-if section. 471 games are still to be played.
Pick the winner of any game that has not been played. The rankings, the playoff field, the bracket and the bowls on this page are rebuilt around your results. Click a pick again to clear it.
The percentage is each team's chance to win as the model sees it. The small number is this page's ranking. Your results change records and strength of record. They do not change how good the model thinks a team is.
The percentage is each team's chance in that game. The favorite advances. The top four seeds get a first-round bye, and lower seeds play at the higher seed's stadium in the first round. Quarterfinal and semifinal sites are the real ones for the 2026 season, handed out here by region.
| Seed | Team | Record | How they got in | Reach semifinal | Reach final | Win title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alabama | 5-0 | SEC champion | 68% | 46% | 23% |
| 2 | Georgia | 5-0 | At-large | 82% | 48% | 30% |
| 3 | Notre Dame | 5-0 | Ranked in the top 12 | 70% | 37% | 22% |
| 4 | Texas | 4-0 | At-large | 42% | 13% | 4% |
| 5 | BYU | 5-0 | Big 12 champion | 56% | 24% | 10% |
| 6 | Miami | 5-0 | ACC champion | 29% | 10% | 4% |
| 7 | Indiana | 6-0 | Big Ten champion | 15% | 4% | 1% |
| 8 | Ohio State | 4-1 | At-large | 22% | 12% | 4% |
| 9 | Utah | 4-0 | At-large | 10% | 4% | 1% |
| 10 | Mississippi State | 5-1 | At-large | 3% | <1% | <1% |
| 11 | Texas Tech | 5-0 | At-large | 1% | <1% | Out |
| 12 | James Madison | 5-0 | Sun Belt champion | 2% | <1% | Out |
First four out: Missouri (5-1), UCLA (4-0), LSU (4-1), Houston (4-1). The four power conference champions and the best champion from the other six conferences are in automatically. Notre Dame is in if it is ranked in the top 12. Seeds follow the ranking straight down.
Pick: Missouri in a toss-up
Pick: LSU by 6
Pick: Houston by 7
Pick: Arizona by 3
Pick: Oklahoma in a toss-up
Pick: Duke by 3
Pick: Oregon by 4
Pick: Oklahoma State by 5
Pick: Tennessee by 1
Pick: SMU by 2
Pick: Baylor by 3
Pick: Virginia Tech by 1
Pick: USC by 12
Pick: Kansas State by 1
Pick: UTSA by 3
Pick: Memphis by 2
Pick: Kansas by 4
Pick: Florida by 1
Pick: Auburn by 4
Pick: North Texas by 1
Pick: UCF by 3
Pick: New Mexico by 3
Pick: Air Force by 2
Pick: Tulsa by 2
Pick: Louisiana by 3
Pick: Louisiana Tech by 6
Pick: Troy by 1
Pick: Michigan by 15
Pick: Vanderbilt by 10
Pick: Minnesota by 4
Pick: Penn State by 12
Pick: Syracuse by 1
Pick: Virginia by 2
Pick: Louisville by 7
Pick: Washington by 5
With the season young, a team counts as on pace for a bowl if it has won at least half its games. Each bowl takes the best team left from the conferences it has a deal with. When a conference runs out of teams, the best team left from anywhere fills the spot. Real selections also weigh travel, rematches and ticket sales, which this does not.
| Rank | Team | Record | Projected | Expected wins | Chance of 6 wins | Chance to win out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alabama | 5-0 | 11-1 | 11.0 | >99% | 28% |
| 2 | Georgia | 5-0 | 11-1 | 11.2 | >99% | 34% |
| 3 | Notre Dame | 5-0 | 11-1 | 11.2 | >99% | 36% |
| 4 | Texas | 4-0 | 10-2 | 10.0 | >99% | 7% |
| 5 | BYU | 5-0 | 10-2 | 10.5 | >99% | 14% |
| 6 | Miami | 5-0 | 11-1 | 10.8 | >99% | 16% |
| 7 | Indiana | 6-0 | 11-1 | 10.7 | >99% | 20% |
| 8 | Ohio State | 4-1 | 10-2 | 9.6 | >99% | 19% |
| 9 | Utah | 4-0 | 10-2 | 10.3 | >99% | 11% |
| 10 | Mississippi State | 5-1 | 9-3 | 8.7 | >99% | 2% |
| 11 | Texas Tech | 5-0 | 10-2 | 9.6 | >99% | 4% |
| 12 | Missouri | 5-1 | 9-3 | 8.7 | >99% | 2% |
| 13 | UCLA | 4-0 | 10-2 | 10.4 | >99% | 15% |
| 14 | LSU | 4-1 | 9-3 | 9.4 | >99% | 12% |
| 15 | Houston | 4-1 | 9-3 | 9.3 | >99% | 9% |
| 16 | Nebraska | 5-1 | 9-3 | 9.5 | >99% | 13% |
| 17 | James Madison | 5-0 | 11-1 | 11.0 | >99% | 32% |
| 18 | Arizona | 5-1 | 9-3 | 9.1 | >99% | 7% |
| 19 | Wake Forest | 5-1 | 10-2 | 9.7 | >99% | 20% |
| 20 | Pittsburgh | 5-1 | 9-3 | 9.5 | >99% | 9% |
| 21 | Oregon | 3-1 | 8-4 | 7.6 | 95% | <1% |
| 22 | North Dakota State | 5-0 | 11-1 | 10.8 | >99% | 17% |
| 23 | Oklahoma | 2-2 | 7-5 | 7.2 | 92% | 2% |
| 24 | Iowa | 6-1 | 9-3 | 8.6 | >99% | 3% |
| 25 | Wisconsin | 4-1 | 8-4 | 8.0 | 99% | 1% |
| 26 | USC | 5-1 | 8-4 | 7.7 | 99% | <1% |
| 27 | Boise State | 4-1 | 9-2 | 9.0 | >99% | 31% |
| 28 | Northwestern | 4-1 | 8-4 | 8.0 | 99% | <1% |
| 29 | Duke | 4-0 | 8-4 | 8.5 | >99% | <1% |
| 30 | New Mexico | 4-1 | 10-2 | 10.0 | >99% | 32% |
| 31 | Oklahoma State | 4-1 | 8-4 | 7.9 | 98% | 1% |
| 32 | Baylor | 4-1 | 7-5 | 7.4 | 95% | <1% |
| 33 | Kentucky | 4-1 | 7-5 | 6.5 | 82% | <1% |
| 34 | Tennessee | 4-1 | 8-4 | 7.8 | 98% | <1% |
| 35 | Liberty | 5-1 | 11-1 | 10.6 | >99% | 63% |
| 36 | SMU | 4-1 | 8-4 | 8.4 | >99% | <1% |
| 37 | Virginia Tech | 4-1 | 9-3 | 8.6 | >99% | 1% |
| 38 | Ole Miss | 3-2 | 6-6 | 6.0 | 68% | <1% |
| 39 | UTSA | 5-1 | 8-4 | 8.5 | >99% | 4% |
| 40 | Georgia State | 4-1 | 9-3 | 9.3 | >99% | 9% |
| 41 | Kansas State | 3-1 | 7-5 | 7.1 | 89% | <1% |
| 42 | Memphis | 4-1 | 9-3 | 8.7 | >99% | 5% |
| 43 | Florida | 4-2 | 6-6 | 6.4 | 82% | <1% |
| 44 | Kansas | 2-2 | 7-5 | 6.6 | 81% | <1% |
| 45 | Cincinnati | 4-1 | 6-6 | 6.2 | 73% | <1% |
| 46 | Louisiana | 4-1 | 9-3 | 9.2 | >99% | 9% |
| 47 | Air Force | 3-1 | 9-3 | 9.3 | >99% | 10% |
| 48 | Michigan | 3-2 | 7-5 | 6.7 | 87% | <1% |
| 49 | Fresno State | 4-1 | 8-3 | 7.7 | 99% | 4% |
| 50 | East Carolina | 3-2 | 8-4 | 8.2 | 99% | 11% |
| 51 | Florida Atlantic | 4-1 | 8-4 | 7.8 | 97% | <1% |
| 52 | Oregon State | 3-2 | 7-4 | 7.5 | 98% | 11% |
| 53 | Clemson | 3-2 | 7-5 | 6.6 | 84% | <1% |
| 54 | Auburn | 3-2 | 6-6 | 5.7 | 55% | <1% |
| 55 | North Carolina | 3-2 | 5-7 | 5.3 | 44% | <1% |
| 56 | Toledo | 4-1 | 10-2 | 9.9 | >99% | 28% |
| 57 | UCF | 3-3 | 6-6 | 5.8 | 62% | <1% |
| 58 | North Texas | 3-2 | 8-4 | 7.8 | 98% | 5% |
| 59 | Louisiana Tech | 2-2 | 8-4 | 7.8 | 97% | 6% |
| 60 | Vanderbilt | 3-2 | 5-7 | 5.0 | 29% | <1% |
| 61 | Minnesota | 4-2 | 6-6 | 5.7 | 55% | <1% |
| 62 | Penn State | 3-2 | 7-5 | 7.1 | 91% | 1% |
| 63 | Arizona State | 2-2 | 5-7 | 4.7 | 22% | <1% |
| 64 | Florida State | 3-3 | 6-6 | 5.7 | 58% | <1% |
| 65 | Syracuse | 2-2 | 5-7 | 5.5 | 48% | <1% |
| 66 | Jacksonville State | 4-2 | 9-3 | 8.9 | >99% | 28% |
| 67 | Virginia | 3-2 | 7-5 | 6.6 | 82% | <1% |
| 68 | Texas A&M | 3-3 | 5-7 | 5.2 | 35% | <1% |
| 69 | Michigan State | 2-3 | 5-7 | 4.8 | 26% | <1% |
| 70 | South Florida | 4-2 | 8-4 | 7.9 | >99% | 5% |
| 71 | Louisville | 3-3 | 7-5 | 6.9 | 91% | 6% |
| 72 | Iowa State | 3-3 | 5-7 | 4.7 | 21% | <1% |
| 73 | Purdue | 2-3 | 4-8 | 4.3 | 15% | <1% |
| 74 | Tulsa | 3-2 | 7-5 | 7.2 | 93% | 2% |
| 75 | TCU | 2-3 | 4-8 | 4.4 | 15% | <1% |
| 76 | Troy | 3-2 | 7-5 | 6.6 | 84% | <1% |
| 77 | South Carolina | 3-3 | 5-7 | 4.9 | 27% | <1% |
| 78 | Maryland | 2-3 | 5-7 | 4.9 | 30% | <1% |
| 79 | Ohio | 3-2 | 8-4 | 7.9 | 98% | 6% |
| 80 | UNLV | 3-2 | 7-5 | 7.1 | 96% | <1% |
| 81 | Colorado | 2-3 | 4-8 | 4.2 | 13% | <1% |
| 82 | Texas State | 2-3 | 6-5 | 5.7 | 58% | 2% |
| 83 | Army | 3-2 | 6-6 | 5.6 | 51% | <1% |
| 84 | App State | 3-2 | 7-5 | 6.8 | 88% | <1% |
| 85 | Florida International | 3-2 | 7-5 | 6.7 | 88% | <1% |
| 86 | Central Michigan | 3-2 | 7-5 | 6.7 | 85% | <1% |
| 87 | Washington | 3-3 | 5-7 | 4.9 | 29% | <1% |
| 88 | Western Michigan | 3-2 | 7-5 | 7.5 | 96% | 2% |
| 89 | UAB | 3-2 | 6-6 | 5.6 | 50% | <1% |
| 90 | Illinois | 2-3 | 4-8 | 3.6 | 5% | <1% |
| 91 | NC State | 3-3 | 6-6 | 6.3 | 74% | 2% |
| 92 | Navy | 1-3 | 5-7 | 5.3 | 45% | <1% |
| 93 | Arkansas | 2-3 | 3-9 | 2.7 | <1% | <1% |
| 94 | Georgia Southern | 2-3 | 5-7 | 5.3 | 42% | <1% |
| 95 | Massachusetts | 4-2 | 8-4 | 7.8 | 99% | 3% |
| 96 | West Virginia | 3-3 | 4-8 | 3.9 | 4% | <1% |
| 97 | Marshall | 3-2 | 6-6 | 5.8 | 60% | <1% |
| 98 | Miami (OH) | 3-3 | 7-5 | 7.2 | 94% | 10% |
| 99 | California | 2-3 | 4-8 | 3.7 | 4% | <1% |
| 100 | South Alabama | 4-2 | 6-6 | 5.8 | 58% | <1% |
| 101 | Boston College | 2-3 | 3-9 | 3.4 | 2% | <1% |
| 102 | Stanford | 2-3 | 4-8 | 3.6 | 2% | <1% |
| 103 | Sam Houston | 1-4 | 6-6 | 6.4 | 84% | 12% |
| 104 | Temple | 2-3 | 5-7 | 5.4 | 46% | <1% |
| 105 | Tulane | 2-3 | 5-7 | 4.8 | 27% | <1% |
| 106 | UConn | 2-3 | 6-6 | 5.5 | 51% | <1% |
| 107 | Colorado State | 2-3 | 4-7 | 3.7 | 4% | <1% |
| 108 | San Diego State | 2-3 | 4-7 | 3.6 | 2% | <1% |
| 109 | Georgia Tech | 1-3 | 2-10 | 2.3 | <1% | <1% |
| 110 | Delaware | 2-3 | 5-7 | 5.1 | 36% | <1% |
| 111 | San José State | 3-3 | 6-7 | 5.7 | 59% | <1% |
| 112 | Eastern Michigan | 3-3 | 6-6 | 5.6 | 51% | <1% |
| 113 | Utah State | 2-4 | 4-7 | 3.6 | 2% | <1% |
| 114 | Kent State | 2-3 | 4-8 | 4.5 | 18% | <1% |
| 115 | Middle Tennessee | 2-3 | 4-8 | 4.0 | 8% | <1% |
| 116 | Arkansas State | 2-4 | 5-7 | 4.9 | 27% | <1% |
| 117 | Old Dominion | 2-4 | 4-8 | 4.3 | 14% | <1% |
| 118 | Wyoming | 3-3 | 5-7 | 5.1 | 29% | <1% |
| 119 | Western Kentucky | 2-4 | 3-9 | 3.3 | 1% | <1% |
| 120 | Rutgers | 1-4 | 2-10 | 1.7 | <1% | <1% |
| 121 | Kennesaw State | 1-4 | 4-8 | 4.3 | 14% | <1% |
| 122 | Rice | 1-5 | 3-9 | 2.8 | <1% | <1% |
| 123 | Nevada | 1-3 | 3-9 | 3.3 | 2% | <1% |
| 124 | New Mexico State | 2-4 | 4-8 | 4.1 | 8% | <1% |
| 125 | Buffalo | 2-3 | 4-8 | 4.0 | 8% | <1% |
| 126 | Coastal Carolina | 1-4 | 3-9 | 2.9 | <1% | <1% |
| 127 | Southern Miss | 1-4 | 3-9 | 3.2 | 2% | <1% |
| 128 | Missouri State | 1-4 | 3-9 | 2.6 | <1% | <1% |
| 129 | Northern Illinois | 0-4 | 2-10 | 2.3 | <1% | <1% |
| 130 | Akron | 1-4 | 3-9 | 3.2 | 2% | <1% |
| 131 | Ball State | 1-5 | 4-8 | 3.8 | 5% | <1% |
| 132 | Hawai'i | 1-4 | 4-8 | 4.1 | 6% | <1% |
| 133 | Washington State | 1-5 | 2-9 | 2.2 | <1% | <1% |
| 134 | Bowling Green | 2-4 | 4-8 | 3.5 | 2% | <1% |
| 135 | UTEP | 1-4 | 2-10 | 2.0 | <1% | <1% |
| 136 | UL Monroe | 0-5 | 1-11 | 1.2 | <1% | <1% |
| 137 | Charlotte | 0-5 | 0-12 | 0.3 | <1% | <1% |
No team matches that.
Rank is this page's committee-style ranking: half the power index, half strength of record. Projected is the record a team is most likely to finish near, from its chance in each remaining game. Bowls and playoff games are not counted in these records, and a conference title game counts only once it is on the schedule.
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