Not official.These are projections from this site's own model, built on its power index. They are not the playoff committee's rankings or any bowl's actual selections, and early in the season they move a lot from week to week.
Every game left goes to the team the model favors, then each conference's top two meet in a title game. Change any result in the what-if section and the field is rebuilt.
Pick the winner of any game that has not been played. The rankings, the playoff field, the bracket and the bowls on this page are rebuilt around your results. Click a pick again to clear it.
The percentage is each team's chance to win as the model sees it. The small number is this page's ranking. Your results change records and strength of record. They do not change how good the model thinks a team is.
The percentage is each team's chance in that game. The favorite advances. The top four seeds get a first-round bye, and lower seeds play at the higher seed's stadium in the first round. Quarterfinal and semifinal sites are the real ones for the 2026 season, handed out here by region.
| Seed | Team | Record | How they got in | Reach semifinal | Reach final | Win title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alabama | 12-0 | At-large | 70% | 45% | 23% |
| 2 | Notre Dame | 12-0 | Ranked in the top 12 | 75% | 40% | 24% |
| 3 | Georgia | 11-1 | SEC champion | 72% | 41% | 25% |
| 4 | BYU | 11-1 | Big 12 champion | 58% | 26% | 11% |
| 5 | Ohio State | 11-1 | Big Ten champion | 40% | 16% | 6% |
| 6 | Miami | 11-1 | ACC champion | 24% | 10% | 4% |
| 7 | Utah | 11-1 | At-large | 20% | 6% | 2% |
| 8 | LSU | 10-2 | At-large | 20% | 9% | 3% |
| 9 | Indiana | 11-1 | At-large | 9% | 4% | 1% |
| 10 | UCLA | 12-0 | At-large | 6% | 1% | <1% |
| 11 | Missouri | 10-2 | At-large | 5% | 1% | <1% |
| 12 | James Madison | 12-0 | Sun Belt champion | 2% | <1% | Out |
First four out: Texas (9-3), Houston (10-2), Nebraska (10-2), Mississippi State (9-3). The four power conference champions and the best champion from the other six conferences are in automatically. Notre Dame is in if it is ranked in the top 12. Seeds follow the ranking straight down.
Pick: Texas in a toss-up
Pick: Pittsburgh in a toss-up
Pick: Houston by 7
Pick: Arizona by 3
Pick: Oklahoma by 3
Pick: Virginia Tech by 1
Pick: Iowa by 6
Pick: Kansas by 7
Pick: Oregon by 4
Pick: USC by 6
Pick: Texas Tech by 3
Pick: North Dakota State by 3
Pick: Northwestern by 4
Pick: Baylor by 4
Pick: Memphis by 1
Pick: East Carolina by 7
Pick: Oklahoma State by 1
Pick: Kentucky by 4
Pick: Jacksonville State by 3
Pick: Kansas State by 6
Pick: UCF by 4
Pick: New Mexico by 3
Pick: Air Force by 2
Pick: Tulsa by 1
Pick: Toledo by 13
Pick: Louisiana by 11
Pick: Sam Houston by 1
Pick: Troy by 1
Pick: App State by 1
Pick: Navy by 13
Pick: Massachusetts by 1
Pick: Michigan by 21
Pick: Penn State by 4
Pick: Auburn by 10
Pick: Texas A&M by 1
Teams need six wins to qualify. Each bowl takes the best team left from the conferences it has a deal with. When a conference runs out of teams, the best team left from anywhere fills the spot. Real selections also weigh travel, rematches and ticket sales, which this does not.
| Rank | Team | Record | Projected | Expected wins | Chance of 6 wins | Chance to win out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alabama | 5-0 | 11-1 | 11.0 | >99% | 27% |
| 2 | Notre Dame | 6-0 | 11-1 | 11.1 | >99% | 34% |
| 3 | Georgia | 5-0 | 11-1 | 11.1 | >99% | 31% |
| 4 | BYU | 5-0 | 10-2 | 10.4 | >99% | 13% |
| 5 | Ohio State | 5-1 | 10-2 | 9.6 | >99% | 17% |
| 6 | Miami | 5-0 | 11-1 | 10.7 | >99% | 15% |
| 7 | Utah | 4-0 | 10-2 | 10.1 | >99% | 10% |
| 8 | LSU | 4-1 | 9-3 | 9.4 | >99% | 12% |
| 9 | Indiana | 6-0 | 11-1 | 10.7 | >99% | 20% |
| 10 | UCLA | 5-0 | 11-1 | 10.8 | >99% | 24% |
| 11 | Missouri | 5-1 | 9-3 | 8.9 | >99% | 3% |
| 12 | Texas | 4-1 | 9-3 | 8.8 | >99% | 4% |
| 13 | Houston | 5-1 | 9-3 | 9.5 | >99% | 12% |
| 14 | Nebraska | 5-1 | 9-3 | 9.3 | >99% | 11% |
| 15 | Mississippi State | 4-1 | 9-3 | 8.5 | >99% | 2% |
| 16 | Pittsburgh | 5-1 | 9-3 | 9.4 | >99% | 9% |
| 17 | James Madison | 5-0 | 11-1 | 10.9 | >99% | 28% |
| 18 | Arizona | 5-2 | 8-4 | 8.1 | >99% | 8% |
| 19 | Iowa | 5-1 | 9-3 | 8.8 | >99% | 6% |
| 20 | Oklahoma | 3-2 | 7-5 | 7.4 | 95% | 2% |
| 21 | Boise State | 4-1 | 9-2 | 8.9 | >99% | 26% |
| 22 | Wake Forest | 5-1 | 10-2 | 9.6 | >99% | 19% |
| 23 | Kansas | 2-2 | 7-5 | 6.5 | 79% | <1% |
| 24 | North Dakota State | 5-0 | 11-1 | 11.0 | >99% | 26% |
| 25 | New Mexico | 4-1 | 10-2 | 9.8 | >99% | 24% |
| 26 | SMU | 4-1 | 8-4 | 8.3 | >99% | <1% |
| 27 | Oregon | 3-2 | 7-5 | 7.2 | 93% | 1% |
| 28 | Texas Tech | 5-0 | 10-2 | 9.5 | >99% | 4% |
| 29 | Liberty | 5-1 | 10-2 | 10.5 | >99% | 56% |
| 30 | USC | 5-1 | 8-4 | 7.6 | 98% | <1% |
| 31 | Baylor | 4-1 | 7-5 | 7.3 | 95% | <1% |
| 32 | Tennessee | 5-1 | 8-4 | 7.8 | 99% | <1% |
| 33 | Georgia State | 4-1 | 9-3 | 9.2 | >99% | 8% |
| 34 | Oklahoma State | 4-1 | 8-4 | 7.8 | 97% | 1% |
| 35 | Northwestern | 4-1 | 8-4 | 7.9 | 98% | <1% |
| 36 | Memphis | 4-1 | 9-3 | 8.6 | >99% | 5% |
| 37 | Oregon State | 3-2 | 7-4 | 7.4 | 98% | 10% |
| 38 | Wisconsin | 4-1 | 8-4 | 7.9 | 98% | <1% |
| 39 | East Carolina | 3-2 | 8-4 | 8.1 | 99% | 10% |
| 40 | Florida | 4-2 | 7-5 | 6.6 | 84% | <1% |
| 41 | Kansas State | 3-2 | 7-5 | 6.8 | 84% | 1% |
| 42 | Air Force | 3-1 | 9-3 | 9.2 | >99% | 9% |
| 43 | Virginia Tech | 4-2 | 8-4 | 7.7 | 99% | 2% |
| 44 | Louisiana | 4-1 | 9-3 | 9.2 | >99% | 8% |
| 45 | Michigan | 3-2 | 7-5 | 6.7 | 87% | <1% |
| 46 | Ole Miss | 4-1 | 7-5 | 6.8 | 90% | <1% |
| 47 | UTSA | 5-1 | 8-4 | 8.4 | >99% | 3% |
| 48 | Jacksonville State | 4-2 | 9-3 | 8.8 | >99% | 25% |
| 49 | Fresno State | 4-1 | 8-3 | 8.0 | >99% | 6% |
| 50 | Duke | 4-1 | 8-4 | 7.6 | 97% | <1% |
| 51 | UCF | 3-3 | 6-6 | 5.8 | 61% | <1% |
| 52 | Penn State | 3-2 | 7-5 | 7.2 | 92% | 2% |
| 53 | Louisville | 3-3 | 7-5 | 6.9 | 90% | 5% |
| 54 | Louisiana Tech | 2-2 | 8-4 | 7.7 | 96% | 5% |
| 55 | Kentucky | 4-1 | 7-5 | 6.7 | 84% | <1% |
| 56 | Toledo | 4-2 | 8-4 | 8.4 | >99% | 14% |
| 57 | Auburn | 3-2 | 6-6 | 5.7 | 58% | <1% |
| 58 | North Texas | 4-2 | 8-4 | 7.8 | 98% | 5% |
| 59 | Florida State | 3-3 | 6-6 | 5.7 | 57% | <1% |
| 60 | Florida Atlantic | 4-1 | 8-4 | 7.8 | 97% | 1% |
| 61 | South Florida | 4-2 | 8-4 | 7.8 | 99% | 5% |
| 62 | Virginia | 3-2 | 7-5 | 6.6 | 82% | <1% |
| 63 | Cincinnati | 4-1 | 6-6 | 6.2 | 73% | <1% |
| 64 | Tulsa | 3-3 | 7-5 | 6.8 | 88% | 5% |
| 65 | Texas A&M | 3-3 | 5-7 | 5.3 | 42% | <1% |
| 66 | Sam Houston | 1-4 | 6-6 | 6.3 | 81% | 11% |
| 67 | Iowa State | 4-3 | 6-6 | 5.7 | 56% | <1% |
| 68 | Clemson | 3-2 | 7-5 | 6.6 | 84% | <1% |
| 69 | Navy | 2-3 | 6-6 | 5.7 | 58% | <1% |
| 70 | Western Michigan | 4-2 | 8-4 | 7.5 | 97% | 3% |
| 71 | Texas State | 2-3 | 6-5 | 5.6 | 54% | 2% |
| 72 | Purdue | 2-3 | 4-8 | 4.4 | 18% | <1% |
| 73 | Syracuse | 2-2 | 5-7 | 5.5 | 49% | <1% |
| 74 | UNLV | 3-2 | 7-5 | 7.1 | 95% | <1% |
| 75 | Troy | 3-2 | 7-5 | 6.6 | 84% | <1% |
| 76 | Ohio | 4-2 | 8-4 | 7.7 | 97% | 4% |
| 77 | Miami (OH) | 3-3 | 7-5 | 7.1 | 92% | 9% |
| 78 | NC State | 3-3 | 6-6 | 6.2 | 74% | 2% |
| 79 | TCU | 2-3 | 4-8 | 4.4 | 17% | <1% |
| 80 | Michigan State | 2-4 | 4-8 | 4.3 | 13% | <1% |
| 81 | Arizona State | 2-2 | 5-7 | 4.8 | 25% | <1% |
| 82 | Massachusetts | 4-2 | 8-4 | 8.1 | >99% | 6% |
| 83 | App State | 3-2 | 7-5 | 6.8 | 87% | <1% |
| 84 | Florida International | 3-2 | 7-5 | 6.7 | 86% | <1% |
| 85 | UConn | 3-3 | 6-6 | 6.0 | 68% | <1% |
| 86 | Vanderbilt | 3-3 | 5-7 | 4.8 | 20% | <1% |
| 87 | Minnesota | 4-1 | 6-6 | 6.0 | 64% | <1% |
| 88 | Maryland | 2-4 | 5-7 | 4.9 | 30% | <1% |
| 89 | North Carolina | 3-2 | 5-7 | 5.4 | 46% | <1% |
| 90 | South Carolina | 3-3 | 5-7 | 5.0 | 30% | <1% |
| 91 | Georgia Southern | 2-3 | 5-7 | 5.3 | 42% | <1% |
| 92 | Illinois | 3-3 | 4-8 | 4.3 | 11% | <1% |
| 93 | Colorado | 2-3 | 4-8 | 4.3 | 15% | <1% |
| 94 | Washington | 3-3 | 5-7 | 4.5 | 16% | <1% |
| 95 | Temple | 2-4 | 5-7 | 4.8 | 24% | <1% |
| 96 | West Virginia | 3-3 | 4-8 | 4.0 | 5% | <1% |
| 97 | California | 3-3 | 5-7 | 4.6 | 15% | <1% |
| 98 | Boston College | 2-3 | 4-8 | 3.5 | 3% | <1% |
| 99 | Army | 3-2 | 6-6 | 5.6 | 53% | <1% |
| 100 | Eastern Michigan | 4-3 | 6-6 | 6.3 | 79% | 2% |
| 101 | Arkansas State | 2-4 | 5-7 | 4.9 | 28% | <1% |
| 102 | UAB | 3-2 | 6-6 | 5.7 | 53% | <1% |
| 103 | Utah State | 2-4 | 4-7 | 3.5 | 2% | <1% |
| 104 | Marshall | 3-2 | 6-6 | 5.9 | 61% | <1% |
| 105 | Kennesaw State | 1-4 | 4-8 | 4.3 | 15% | <1% |
| 106 | Sacramento State | 1-5 | 4-8 | 4.4 | 17% | 3% |
| 107 | Central Michigan | 3-3 | 6-6 | 5.9 | 62% | 1% |
| 108 | Stanford | 2-4 | 4-8 | 3.7 | 2% | <1% |
| 109 | San José State | 3-3 | 6-7 | 5.7 | 57% | <1% |
| 110 | New Mexico State | 2-4 | 4-8 | 4.1 | 10% | <1% |
| 111 | Tulane | 2-3 | 5-7 | 4.9 | 30% | <1% |
| 112 | Delaware | 2-3 | 5-7 | 5.1 | 36% | <1% |
| 113 | Arkansas | 2-4 | 3-9 | 2.6 | <1% | <1% |
| 114 | Georgia Tech | 2-3 | 3-9 | 3.2 | <1% | <1% |
| 115 | Colorado State | 2-3 | 4-7 | 3.8 | 4% | <1% |
| 116 | Old Dominion | 2-4 | 4-8 | 4.4 | 15% | <1% |
| 117 | Wyoming | 3-3 | 5-7 | 5.1 | 31% | <1% |
| 118 | San Diego State | 2-3 | 4-7 | 3.7 | 3% | <1% |
| 119 | Rice | 1-5 | 3-9 | 2.9 | 1% | <1% |
| 120 | South Alabama | 4-2 | 6-6 | 5.9 | 61% | <1% |
| 121 | Hawai'i | 1-4 | 4-8 | 3.6 | 4% | <1% |
| 122 | Washington State | 1-5 | 2-9 | 2.2 | <1% | <1% |
| 123 | Rutgers | 1-4 | 2-10 | 1.9 | <1% | <1% |
| 124 | Kent State | 2-4 | 4-8 | 3.8 | 6% | <1% |
| 125 | Southern Miss | 1-4 | 3-9 | 3.2 | 2% | <1% |
| 126 | Buffalo | 3-3 | 6-6 | 5.5 | 50% | <1% |
| 127 | Coastal Carolina | 1-4 | 3-9 | 3.0 | 1% | <1% |
| 128 | Ball State | 1-5 | 3-9 | 3.2 | 2% | <1% |
| 129 | Middle Tennessee | 2-3 | 4-8 | 4.1 | 10% | <1% |
| 130 | Western Kentucky | 2-4 | 3-9 | 3.4 | 2% | <1% |
| 131 | Nevada | 1-3 | 3-9 | 3.3 | 2% | <1% |
| 132 | Northern Illinois | 0-4 | 2-10 | 2.4 | <1% | <1% |
| 133 | Missouri State | 1-4 | 3-9 | 2.7 | <1% | <1% |
| 134 | Akron | 1-5 | 3-9 | 2.7 | <1% | <1% |
| 135 | Bowling Green | 2-4 | 3-9 | 3.5 | 2% | <1% |
| 136 | UL Monroe | 0-5 | 1-11 | 1.3 | <1% | <1% |
| 137 | UTEP | 1-4 | 2-10 | 2.1 | <1% | <1% |
| 138 | Charlotte | 0-6 | 0-12 | 0.4 | <1% | <1% |
No team matches that.
Rank is this page's committee-style ranking: half the power index, half strength of record. Projected is the record a team is most likely to finish near, from its chance in each remaining game. Bowls and playoff games are not counted in these records, and a conference title game counts only once it is on the schedule.
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