Not official.These are projections from this site's own model, built on its power index. They are not the playoff committee's rankings or any bowl's actual selections, and early in the season they move a lot from week to week.
Every game left goes to the team the model favors, then each conference's top two meet in a title game. Change any result in the what-if section and the field is rebuilt.
Pick the winner of any game that has not been played. The rankings, the playoff field, the bracket and the bowls on this page are rebuilt around your results. Click a pick again to clear it.
The percentage is each team's chance to win as the model sees it. The small number is this page's ranking. Your results change records and strength of record. They do not change how good the model thinks a team is.
The percentage is each team's chance in that game. The favorite advances. The top four seeds get a first-round bye, and lower seeds play at the higher seed's stadium in the first round. Quarterfinal and semifinal sites are the real ones for the 2026 season, handed out here by region.
| Seed | Team | Record | How they got in | Reach semifinal | Reach final | Win title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alabama | 12-0 | At-large | 72% | 46% | 25% |
| 2 | Georgia | 11-1 | SEC champion | 76% | 44% | 26% |
| 3 | Notre Dame | 11-1 | Ranked in the top 12 | 70% | 37% | 21% |
| 4 | BYU | 11-1 | Big 12 champion | 58% | 25% | 10% |
| 5 | Ohio State | 11-1 | Big Ten champion | 40% | 16% | 6% |
| 6 | Miami | 11-1 | ACC champion | 26% | 10% | 4% |
| 7 | Utah | 11-1 | At-large | 19% | 6% | 2% |
| 8 | LSU | 10-2 | At-large | 20% | 9% | 3% |
| 9 | Indiana | 11-1 | At-large | 9% | 3% | <1% |
| 10 | UCLA | 12-0 | At-large | 5% | 1% | <1% |
| 11 | Missouri | 10-2 | At-large | 5% | 1% | <1% |
| 12 | James Madison | 12-0 | Sun Belt champion | 2% | <1% | Out |
First four out: Texas (9-3), Houston (10-2), Nebraska (10-2), Mississippi State (9-3). The four power conference champions and the best champion from the other six conferences are in automatically. Notre Dame is in if it is ranked in the top 12. Seeds follow the ranking straight down.
Pick: Texas in a toss-up
Pick: Mississippi State in a toss-up
Pick: Houston by 7
Pick: Arizona by 6
Pick: Oklahoma by 2
Pick: Virginia Tech by 1
Pick: Iowa by 6
Pick: Texas Tech by 4
Pick: Oregon by 4
Pick: USC by 3
Pick: Baylor by 3
Pick: Florida State by 2
Pick: Northwestern by 4
Pick: Kansas by 7
Pick: Memphis by 3
Pick: East Carolina by 6
Pick: Liberty by 1
Pick: Kentucky by 4
Pick: Jacksonville State by 4
Pick: Oklahoma State by 6
Pick: UCF by 4
Pick: North Dakota State by 3
Pick: New Mexico by 7
Pick: Air Force by 6
Pick: Toledo by 2
Pick: Louisiana by 12
Pick: Sam Houston by 1
Pick: Troy by 1
Pick: App State by 2
Pick: Navy by 14
Pick: Miami (OH) by 7
Pick: Massachusetts by 5
Pick: Michigan by 10
Pick: Penn State by 9
Pick: Auburn by 4
Teams need six wins to qualify. Each bowl takes the best team left from the conferences it has a deal with. When a conference runs out of teams, the best team left from anywhere fills the spot. Real selections also weigh travel, rematches and ticket sales, which this does not.
| Rank | Team | Record | Projected | Expected wins | Chance of 6 wins | Chance to win out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alabama | 5-0 | 11-1 | 11.0 | >99% | 29% |
| 2 | Georgia | 5-0 | 11-1 | 11.1 | >99% | 30% |
| 3 | Notre Dame | 6-1 | 10-2 | 10.2 | >99% | 36% |
| 4 | BYU | 5-0 | 10-2 | 10.4 | >99% | 13% |
| 5 | Ohio State | 5-1 | 10-2 | 9.6 | >99% | 18% |
| 6 | Miami | 5-0 | 11-1 | 10.8 | >99% | 16% |
| 7 | Utah | 4-0 | 10-2 | 10.1 | >99% | 10% |
| 8 | LSU | 4-1 | 9-3 | 9.3 | >99% | 12% |
| 9 | Indiana | 6-0 | 11-1 | 10.7 | >99% | 20% |
| 10 | UCLA | 5-0 | 11-1 | 10.8 | >99% | 24% |
| 11 | Missouri | 5-1 | 9-3 | 8.9 | >99% | 3% |
| 12 | Texas | 4-1 | 9-3 | 8.8 | >99% | 4% |
| 13 | Houston | 5-1 | 10-2 | 9.5 | >99% | 13% |
| 14 | Nebraska | 5-1 | 9-3 | 9.4 | >99% | 11% |
| 15 | Mississippi State | 4-1 | 9-3 | 8.6 | >99% | 2% |
| 16 | Arizona | 5-1 | 9-3 | 9.1 | >99% | 8% |
| 17 | Pittsburgh | 5-1 | 9-3 | 9.4 | >99% | 8% |
| 18 | James Madison | 5-0 | 11-1 | 10.9 | >99% | 29% |
| 19 | SMU | 5-1 | 9-3 | 9.2 | >99% | 11% |
| 20 | Texas Tech | 5-0 | 10-2 | 9.5 | >99% | 4% |
| 21 | Oklahoma | 3-2 | 7-5 | 7.4 | 95% | 2% |
| 22 | Iowa | 5-1 | 9-3 | 8.9 | >99% | 6% |
| 23 | Boise State | 4-1 | 9-2 | 8.9 | >99% | 26% |
| 24 | Wake Forest | 5-1 | 10-2 | 9.7 | >99% | 20% |
| 25 | North Dakota State | 5-0 | 11-1 | 11.0 | >99% | 26% |
| 26 | New Mexico | 4-1 | 10-2 | 9.8 | >99% | 24% |
| 27 | Oregon | 3-2 | 7-5 | 7.2 | 93% | 1% |
| 28 | Liberty | 5-1 | 10-2 | 10.5 | >99% | 57% |
| 29 | USC | 5-1 | 8-4 | 7.6 | 98% | <1% |
| 30 | Baylor | 4-1 | 7-5 | 7.4 | 95% | <1% |
| 31 | Kansas | 2-3 | 6-6 | 6.0 | 68% | <1% |
| 32 | Tennessee | 5-1 | 8-4 | 7.8 | 99% | <1% |
| 33 | Kansas State | 4-2 | 7-5 | 7.4 | 95% | 3% |
| 34 | Georgia State | 4-1 | 9-3 | 9.2 | >99% | 9% |
| 35 | Northwestern | 4-1 | 8-4 | 7.9 | 99% | <1% |
| 36 | Memphis | 4-1 | 9-3 | 8.7 | >99% | 5% |
| 37 | Oregon State | 4-2 | 7-4 | 7.4 | 99% | 11% |
| 38 | Wisconsin | 4-1 | 8-4 | 7.9 | 98% | <1% |
| 39 | Florida | 4-2 | 7-5 | 6.6 | 84% | <1% |
| 40 | Air Force | 3-1 | 9-3 | 9.2 | >99% | 9% |
| 41 | East Carolina | 3-2 | 8-4 | 8.1 | 99% | 9% |
| 42 | Virginia Tech | 4-2 | 8-4 | 7.7 | 99% | 2% |
| 43 | Louisiana | 4-1 | 9-3 | 9.2 | >99% | 8% |
| 44 | Michigan | 3-2 | 7-5 | 6.7 | 87% | <1% |
| 45 | Ole Miss | 4-1 | 7-5 | 6.8 | 90% | <1% |
| 46 | UTSA | 5-1 | 8-4 | 8.4 | >99% | 3% |
| 47 | Oklahoma State | 4-1 | 8-4 | 7.6 | 96% | <1% |
| 48 | Jacksonville State | 4-2 | 9-3 | 8.8 | >99% | 25% |
| 49 | UCF | 3-3 | 6-6 | 5.8 | 61% | <1% |
| 50 | Penn State | 3-2 | 7-5 | 7.2 | 92% | 2% |
| 51 | Louisville | 3-3 | 7-5 | 6.8 | 88% | 5% |
| 52 | Louisiana Tech | 2-2 | 8-4 | 7.7 | 96% | 5% |
| 53 | Kentucky | 4-1 | 7-5 | 6.7 | 84% | <1% |
| 54 | Toledo | 4-2 | 8-4 | 8.4 | >99% | 14% |
| 55 | Auburn | 3-2 | 6-6 | 5.7 | 58% | <1% |
| 56 | Fresno State | 4-1 | 8-3 | 7.9 | >99% | 6% |
| 57 | North Texas | 4-2 | 8-4 | 7.8 | 98% | 5% |
| 58 | Florida State | 3-3 | 6-6 | 5.7 | 57% | <1% |
| 59 | Florida Atlantic | 4-1 | 8-4 | 7.8 | 97% | 1% |
| 60 | South Florida | 4-2 | 8-4 | 7.9 | 99% | 5% |
| 61 | Cincinnati | 4-1 | 6-6 | 6.3 | 76% | <1% |
| 62 | Virginia | 3-2 | 7-5 | 6.5 | 80% | <1% |
| 63 | Duke | 4-1 | 7-5 | 7.2 | 94% | <1% |
| 64 | Tulsa | 3-3 | 7-5 | 6.8 | 88% | 5% |
| 65 | Texas A&M | 3-3 | 5-7 | 5.3 | 42% | <1% |
| 66 | Texas State | 2-3 | 6-5 | 5.6 | 55% | 2% |
| 67 | Sam Houston | 1-4 | 6-6 | 6.3 | 81% | 12% |
| 68 | NC State | 3-3 | 6-6 | 6.3 | 76% | 2% |
| 69 | Clemson | 3-2 | 7-5 | 6.6 | 83% | <1% |
| 70 | Navy | 2-3 | 6-6 | 5.7 | 58% | <1% |
| 71 | Western Michigan | 4-2 | 8-4 | 7.5 | 97% | 2% |
| 72 | Purdue | 2-3 | 4-8 | 4.4 | 17% | <1% |
| 73 | UNLV | 3-2 | 7-5 | 7.1 | 95% | <1% |
| 74 | Syracuse | 2-2 | 5-7 | 5.5 | 50% | <1% |
| 75 | Troy | 3-2 | 7-5 | 6.6 | 84% | <1% |
| 76 | Ohio | 4-2 | 8-4 | 7.7 | 97% | 4% |
| 77 | Miami (OH) | 3-3 | 7-5 | 7.1 | 93% | 9% |
| 78 | TCU | 2-3 | 4-8 | 4.4 | 17% | <1% |
| 79 | Arizona State | 2-2 | 5-7 | 4.8 | 25% | <1% |
| 80 | Michigan State | 2-4 | 4-8 | 4.3 | 12% | <1% |
| 81 | Massachusetts | 4-2 | 8-4 | 8.1 | >99% | 6% |
| 82 | Iowa State | 3-3 | 5-7 | 4.7 | 23% | <1% |
| 83 | App State | 3-2 | 7-5 | 6.8 | 88% | <1% |
| 84 | Florida International | 3-2 | 7-5 | 6.7 | 86% | <1% |
| 85 | UConn | 3-3 | 6-6 | 6.0 | 68% | <1% |
| 86 | Vanderbilt | 3-3 | 5-7 | 4.8 | 20% | <1% |
| 87 | Minnesota | 4-1 | 6-6 | 5.9 | 63% | <1% |
| 88 | Maryland | 2-4 | 5-7 | 4.9 | 30% | <1% |
| 89 | South Carolina | 3-3 | 5-7 | 5.0 | 30% | <1% |
| 90 | North Carolina | 3-2 | 5-7 | 5.5 | 49% | <1% |
| 91 | Georgia Southern | 2-3 | 5-7 | 5.3 | 42% | <1% |
| 92 | Colorado | 2-3 | 4-8 | 4.3 | 15% | <1% |
| 93 | Illinois | 3-3 | 4-8 | 4.2 | 9% | <1% |
| 94 | Washington | 3-3 | 5-7 | 4.5 | 16% | <1% |
| 95 | Temple | 2-4 | 5-7 | 4.8 | 24% | <1% |
| 96 | California | 3-3 | 5-7 | 4.6 | 16% | <1% |
| 97 | Army | 3-2 | 6-6 | 5.6 | 53% | <1% |
| 98 | Georgia Tech | 2-3 | 4-8 | 3.6 | 3% | <1% |
| 99 | Eastern Michigan | 4-3 | 6-6 | 6.4 | 80% | 2% |
| 100 | West Virginia | 3-3 | 4-8 | 3.9 | 3% | <1% |
| 101 | Arkansas State | 2-4 | 5-7 | 4.9 | 29% | <1% |
| 102 | UAB | 3-2 | 6-6 | 5.7 | 53% | <1% |
| 103 | Utah State | 2-4 | 4-7 | 3.5 | 2% | <1% |
| 104 | Marshall | 3-2 | 6-6 | 5.9 | 61% | <1% |
| 105 | Kennesaw State | 1-4 | 4-8 | 4.3 | 15% | <1% |
| 106 | Boston College | 2-3 | 3-9 | 3.4 | 2% | <1% |
| 107 | Sacramento State | 1-5 | 4-8 | 4.4 | 17% | 3% |
| 108 | Central Michigan | 3-3 | 6-6 | 5.9 | 63% | 1% |
| 109 | San José State | 3-3 | 6-7 | 5.7 | 57% | <1% |
| 110 | New Mexico State | 2-4 | 4-8 | 4.1 | 9% | <1% |
| 111 | Stanford | 2-4 | 4-8 | 3.7 | 2% | <1% |
| 112 | Delaware | 2-3 | 5-7 | 5.1 | 36% | <1% |
| 113 | Arkansas | 2-4 | 3-9 | 2.6 | <1% | <1% |
| 114 | Tulane | 2-3 | 5-7 | 4.8 | 26% | <1% |
| 115 | Old Dominion | 2-4 | 4-8 | 4.4 | 16% | <1% |
| 116 | Colorado State | 2-3 | 4-7 | 3.8 | 4% | <1% |
| 117 | Wyoming | 3-3 | 5-7 | 5.1 | 31% | <1% |
| 118 | San Diego State | 2-4 | 4-7 | 3.6 | 2% | <1% |
| 119 | Rice | 1-5 | 3-9 | 3.0 | 1% | <1% |
| 120 | South Alabama | 4-2 | 6-6 | 5.8 | 61% | <1% |
| 121 | Hawai'i | 1-4 | 4-8 | 3.6 | 3% | <1% |
| 122 | Washington State | 1-5 | 2-9 | 2.2 | <1% | <1% |
| 123 | Rutgers | 1-4 | 2-10 | 1.9 | <1% | <1% |
| 124 | Kent State | 2-4 | 4-8 | 3.8 | 6% | <1% |
| 125 | Southern Miss | 1-4 | 3-9 | 3.2 | 2% | <1% |
| 126 | Buffalo | 3-3 | 6-6 | 5.5 | 50% | <1% |
| 127 | Ball State | 1-5 | 3-9 | 3.2 | 2% | <1% |
| 128 | Coastal Carolina | 1-4 | 3-9 | 2.8 | <1% | <1% |
| 129 | Middle Tennessee | 2-3 | 4-8 | 4.1 | 10% | <1% |
| 130 | Western Kentucky | 2-4 | 3-9 | 3.4 | 2% | <1% |
| 131 | Nevada | 1-3 | 3-9 | 3.3 | 2% | <1% |
| 132 | Northern Illinois | 0-4 | 2-10 | 2.4 | <1% | <1% |
| 133 | Missouri State | 1-4 | 3-9 | 2.7 | <1% | <1% |
| 134 | Akron | 1-5 | 3-9 | 2.7 | <1% | <1% |
| 135 | Bowling Green | 2-4 | 3-9 | 3.4 | 2% | <1% |
| 136 | UL Monroe | 0-5 | 1-11 | 1.3 | <1% | <1% |
| 137 | UTEP | 1-4 | 2-10 | 2.1 | <1% | <1% |
| 138 | Charlotte | 0-6 | 0-12 | 0.4 | <1% | <1% |
No team matches that.
Rank is this page's committee-style ranking: half the power index, half strength of record. Projected is the record a team is most likely to finish near, from its chance in each remaining game. Bowls and playoff games are not counted in these records, and a conference title game counts only once it is on the schedule.
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