Not official.These are projections from this site's own model, built on its power index. They are not the playoff committee's rankings or any bowl's actual selections, and early in the season they move a lot from week to week.
Every game left goes to the team the model favors, then each conference's top two meet in a title game. Change any result in the what-if section and the field is rebuilt.
Pick the winner of any game that has not been played. The rankings, the playoff field, the bracket and the bowls on this page are rebuilt around your results. Click a pick again to clear it.
The percentage is each team's chance to win as the model sees it. The small number is this page's ranking. Your results change records and strength of record. They do not change how good the model thinks a team is.
The percentage is each team's chance in that game. The favorite advances. The top four seeds get a first-round bye, and lower seeds play at the higher seed's stadium in the first round. Quarterfinal and semifinal sites are the real ones for the 2026 season, handed out here by region.
| Seed | Team | Record | How they got in | Reach semifinal | Reach final | Win title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Notre Dame | 12-0 | Ranked in the top 12 | 72% | 47% | 24% |
| 2 | Alabama | 11-1 | At-large | 69% | 36% | 21% |
| 3 | Georgia | 11-1 | SEC champion | 79% | 47% | 29% |
| 4 | BYU | 11-1 | Big 12 champion | 58% | 25% | 10% |
| 5 | Ohio State | 11-1 | Big Ten champion | 40% | 16% | 6% |
| 6 | Texas | 11-1 | At-large | 16% | 5% | 2% |
| 7 | Miami | 11-1 | ACC champion | 22% | 8% | 3% |
| 8 | LSU | 10-2 | At-large | 20% | 9% | 3% |
| 9 | Indiana | 11-1 | At-large | 8% | 3% | <1% |
| 10 | Utah | 10-2 | At-large | 10% | 3% | 1% |
| 11 | Houston | 11-1 | At-large | 5% | 1% | <1% |
| 12 | James Madison | 12-0 | Sun Belt champion | 2% | <1% | Out |
First four out: UCLA (12-0), Missouri (9-3), Nebraska (10-2), Mississippi State (9-3). The four power conference champions and the best champion from the other six conferences are in automatically. Notre Dame is in if it is ranked in the top 12. Seeds follow the ranking straight down.
Pick: Missouri in a toss-up
Pick: Nebraska by 3
Pick: Arizona by 4
Pick: Pittsburgh by 2
Pick: Oklahoma by 5
Pick: SMU by 2
Pick: Oregon by 9
Pick: Texas Tech by 4
Pick: USC by 3
Pick: Virginia Tech by 1
Pick: Baylor by 3
Pick: Duke by 3
Pick: Louisville by 1
Pick: Oklahoma State by 3
Pick: Memphis by 2
Pick: East Carolina by 3
Pick: Liberty by 1
Pick: Auburn by 4
Pick: Kentucky by 2
Pick: UCF by 4
Pick: Florida Atlantic by 1
Pick: New Mexico by 3
Pick: North Dakota State by 4
Pick: Air Force by 6
Pick: Toledo by 3
Pick: Louisiana by 11
Pick: Sam Houston by 1
Pick: Troy by 1
Pick: App State by 1
Pick: Navy by 14
Pick: Temple by 1
Pick: Massachusetts by 5
Pick: Michigan by 23
Pick: Penn State by 6
Pick: NC State by 4
Teams need six wins to qualify. Each bowl takes the best team left from the conferences it has a deal with. When a conference runs out of teams, the best team left from anywhere fills the spot. Real selections also weigh travel, rematches and ticket sales, which this does not.
| Rank | Team | Record | Projected | Expected wins | Chance of 6 wins | Chance to win out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Notre Dame | 5-0 | 11-1 | 11.2 | >99% | 36% |
| 2 | Alabama | 5-1 | 10-2 | 10.0 | >99% | 29% |
| 3 | Georgia | 5-0 | 11-1 | 11.2 | >99% | 34% |
| 4 | BYU | 5-0 | 10-2 | 10.5 | >99% | 14% |
| 5 | Ohio State | 4-1 | 10-2 | 9.6 | >99% | 19% |
| 6 | Texas | 4-0 | 10-2 | 10.0 | >99% | 7% |
| 7 | Miami | 5-0 | 11-1 | 10.8 | >99% | 16% |
| 8 | LSU | 4-1 | 9-3 | 9.4 | >99% | 12% |
| 9 | Indiana | 6-0 | 11-1 | 10.7 | >99% | 20% |
| 10 | Utah | 4-1 | 10-2 | 9.6 | >99% | 16% |
| 11 | Houston | 5-1 | 10-2 | 9.9 | >99% | 30% |
| 12 | UCLA | 4-0 | 10-2 | 10.4 | >99% | 15% |
| 13 | Missouri | 5-1 | 9-3 | 8.7 | >99% | 2% |
| 14 | Nebraska | 5-1 | 9-3 | 9.5 | >99% | 13% |
| 15 | Mississippi State | 4-1 | 8-4 | 8.4 | >99% | 1% |
| 16 | Arizona | 5-1 | 9-3 | 9.1 | >99% | 7% |
| 17 | Pittsburgh | 5-1 | 9-3 | 9.5 | >99% | 9% |
| 18 | James Madison | 5-0 | 11-1 | 11.0 | >99% | 32% |
| 19 | Oklahoma | 2-2 | 7-5 | 7.2 | 92% | 2% |
| 20 | Boise State | 4-1 | 9-2 | 9.0 | >99% | 31% |
| 21 | Kansas | 2-2 | 7-5 | 6.6 | 81% | <1% |
| 22 | New Mexico | 4-1 | 10-2 | 10.0 | >99% | 32% |
| 23 | Wake Forest | 5-1 | 10-2 | 9.7 | >99% | 20% |
| 24 | SMU | 4-1 | 8-4 | 8.4 | >99% | <1% |
| 25 | Oregon | 3-1 | 8-4 | 7.6 | 95% | <1% |
| 26 | Texas Tech | 5-0 | 10-2 | 9.6 | >99% | 4% |
| 27 | Liberty | 5-1 | 11-1 | 10.6 | >99% | 63% |
| 28 | USC | 5-1 | 8-4 | 7.7 | 99% | <1% |
| 29 | North Dakota State | 5-0 | 11-1 | 10.8 | >99% | 17% |
| 30 | Baylor | 4-1 | 7-5 | 7.4 | 95% | <1% |
| 31 | Northwestern | 4-1 | 8-4 | 8.0 | 99% | <1% |
| 32 | Tennessee | 4-1 | 8-4 | 7.8 | 98% | <1% |
| 33 | Virginia Tech | 4-1 | 9-3 | 8.6 | >99% | 1% |
| 34 | Iowa | 5-1 | 8-4 | 8.2 | >99% | 2% |
| 35 | Georgia State | 4-1 | 9-3 | 9.3 | >99% | 9% |
| 36 | Oklahoma State | 4-1 | 8-4 | 7.9 | 98% | 1% |
| 37 | Florida | 4-2 | 6-6 | 6.4 | 82% | <1% |
| 38 | Oregon State | 3-2 | 7-4 | 7.5 | 98% | 11% |
| 39 | Memphis | 4-1 | 9-3 | 8.7 | >99% | 5% |
| 40 | East Carolina | 3-2 | 8-4 | 8.2 | 99% | 11% |
| 41 | Wisconsin | 4-1 | 8-4 | 8.0 | 99% | 1% |
| 42 | Kansas State | 3-1 | 7-5 | 7.1 | 89% | <1% |
| 43 | Air Force | 3-1 | 9-3 | 9.3 | >99% | 10% |
| 44 | Duke | 4-0 | 8-4 | 8.5 | >99% | <1% |
| 45 | Ole Miss | 3-1 | 6-6 | 6.3 | 77% | <1% |
| 46 | Louisiana | 4-1 | 9-3 | 9.2 | >99% | 9% |
| 47 | UTSA | 5-1 | 8-4 | 8.5 | >99% | 4% |
| 48 | Michigan | 3-2 | 7-5 | 6.7 | 87% | <1% |
| 49 | Toledo | 4-1 | 10-2 | 9.9 | >99% | 28% |
| 50 | Jacksonville State | 4-2 | 9-3 | 8.9 | >99% | 28% |
| 51 | Auburn | 4-2 | 7-5 | 6.6 | 96% | <1% |
| 52 | UCF | 3-3 | 6-6 | 5.8 | 62% | <1% |
| 53 | Louisville | 3-3 | 7-5 | 6.9 | 91% | 6% |
| 54 | Kentucky | 4-1 | 7-5 | 6.5 | 82% | <1% |
| 55 | Louisiana Tech | 2-2 | 8-4 | 7.8 | 97% | 6% |
| 56 | North Texas | 3-2 | 8-4 | 7.8 | 98% | 5% |
| 57 | Florida State | 3-3 | 6-6 | 5.7 | 58% | <1% |
| 58 | Penn State | 3-2 | 7-5 | 7.1 | 91% | 1% |
| 59 | Florida Atlantic | 4-1 | 8-4 | 7.8 | 97% | <1% |
| 60 | South Florida | 4-2 | 8-4 | 7.9 | >99% | 5% |
| 61 | Fresno State | 4-1 | 8-3 | 7.7 | 99% | 4% |
| 62 | Virginia | 3-2 | 7-5 | 6.6 | 82% | <1% |
| 63 | Cincinnati | 4-1 | 6-6 | 6.2 | 73% | <1% |
| 64 | Texas A&M | 3-3 | 5-7 | 5.2 | 35% | <1% |
| 65 | Texas State | 2-3 | 6-5 | 5.7 | 58% | 2% |
| 66 | Tulsa | 3-2 | 7-5 | 7.2 | 93% | 2% |
| 67 | Sam Houston | 1-4 | 6-6 | 6.4 | 84% | 12% |
| 68 | Michigan State | 2-3 | 5-7 | 4.8 | 26% | <1% |
| 69 | Clemson | 3-2 | 7-5 | 6.6 | 84% | <1% |
| 70 | Washington | 3-3 | 5-7 | 4.9 | 29% | <1% |
| 71 | Navy | 1-3 | 5-7 | 5.3 | 45% | <1% |
| 72 | Minnesota | 4-1 | 6-6 | 6.1 | 69% | <1% |
| 73 | Western Michigan | 3-2 | 7-5 | 7.5 | 96% | 2% |
| 74 | Syracuse | 2-2 | 5-7 | 5.5 | 48% | <1% |
| 75 | Troy | 3-2 | 7-5 | 6.6 | 84% | <1% |
| 76 | UNLV | 3-2 | 7-5 | 7.1 | 96% | <1% |
| 77 | Ohio | 3-2 | 8-4 | 7.9 | 98% | 6% |
| 78 | Miami (OH) | 3-3 | 7-5 | 7.2 | 94% | 10% |
| 79 | TCU | 2-3 | 4-8 | 4.4 | 15% | <1% |
| 80 | NC State | 3-3 | 6-6 | 6.3 | 74% | 2% |
| 81 | Arizona State | 2-2 | 5-7 | 4.7 | 22% | <1% |
| 82 | Iowa State | 3-3 | 5-7 | 4.7 | 21% | <1% |
| 83 | App State | 3-2 | 7-5 | 6.8 | 88% | <1% |
| 84 | Florida International | 3-2 | 7-5 | 6.7 | 88% | <1% |
| 85 | Vanderbilt | 3-2 | 5-7 | 5.0 | 29% | <1% |
| 86 | Maryland | 2-3 | 5-7 | 4.9 | 30% | <1% |
| 87 | South Carolina | 3-3 | 5-7 | 4.9 | 27% | <1% |
| 88 | North Carolina | 3-2 | 5-7 | 5.3 | 44% | <1% |
| 89 | Massachusetts | 4-2 | 8-4 | 7.8 | 99% | 3% |
| 90 | Temple | 2-3 | 5-7 | 5.4 | 46% | <1% |
| 91 | UConn | 2-3 | 6-6 | 5.5 | 51% | <1% |
| 92 | Purdue | 2-3 | 4-8 | 4.3 | 15% | <1% |
| 93 | Georgia Southern | 2-3 | 5-7 | 5.3 | 42% | <1% |
| 94 | Colorado | 2-3 | 4-8 | 4.2 | 13% | <1% |
| 95 | Central Michigan | 3-2 | 7-5 | 6.7 | 85% | <1% |
| 96 | West Virginia | 3-3 | 4-8 | 3.9 | 4% | <1% |
| 97 | Boston College | 2-3 | 3-9 | 3.4 | 2% | <1% |
| 98 | Illinois | 2-3 | 4-8 | 3.6 | 5% | <1% |
| 99 | Army | 3-2 | 6-6 | 5.6 | 51% | <1% |
| 100 | Utah State | 2-4 | 4-7 | 3.6 | 2% | <1% |
| 101 | Arkansas State | 2-4 | 5-7 | 4.9 | 27% | <1% |
| 102 | UAB | 3-2 | 6-6 | 5.6 | 50% | <1% |
| 103 | Marshall | 3-2 | 6-6 | 5.8 | 60% | <1% |
| 104 | California | 2-3 | 4-8 | 3.7 | 4% | <1% |
| 105 | Kennesaw State | 1-4 | 4-8 | 4.3 | 14% | <1% |
| 106 | Stanford | 2-3 | 4-8 | 3.6 | 2% | <1% |
| 107 | New Mexico State | 2-4 | 4-8 | 4.1 | 8% | <1% |
| 108 | San José State | 3-3 | 6-7 | 5.7 | 59% | <1% |
| 109 | Arkansas | 2-3 | 3-9 | 2.7 | <1% | <1% |
| 110 | Delaware | 2-3 | 5-7 | 5.1 | 36% | <1% |
| 111 | Eastern Michigan | 3-3 | 6-6 | 5.6 | 51% | <1% |
| 112 | Tulane | 2-3 | 5-7 | 4.8 | 27% | <1% |
| 113 | Colorado State | 2-3 | 4-7 | 3.7 | 4% | <1% |
| 114 | Old Dominion | 2-4 | 4-8 | 4.3 | 14% | <1% |
| 115 | San Diego State | 2-3 | 4-7 | 3.6 | 2% | <1% |
| 116 | Wyoming | 3-3 | 5-7 | 5.1 | 29% | <1% |
| 117 | Hawai'i | 1-4 | 4-8 | 4.1 | 6% | <1% |
| 118 | Rice | 1-5 | 3-9 | 2.8 | <1% | <1% |
| 119 | South Alabama | 4-2 | 6-6 | 5.8 | 58% | <1% |
| 120 | Kent State | 2-3 | 4-8 | 4.5 | 18% | <1% |
| 121 | Georgia Tech | 1-3 | 2-10 | 2.3 | <1% | <1% |
| 122 | Ball State | 1-5 | 4-8 | 3.8 | 5% | <1% |
| 123 | Washington State | 1-5 | 2-9 | 2.2 | <1% | <1% |
| 124 | Rutgers | 1-4 | 2-10 | 1.7 | <1% | <1% |
| 125 | Southern Miss | 1-4 | 3-9 | 3.2 | 2% | <1% |
| 126 | Coastal Carolina | 1-4 | 3-9 | 2.9 | <1% | <1% |
| 127 | Middle Tennessee | 2-3 | 4-8 | 4.0 | 8% | <1% |
| 128 | Nevada | 1-3 | 3-9 | 3.3 | 2% | <1% |
| 129 | Western Kentucky | 2-4 | 3-9 | 3.3 | 1% | <1% |
| 130 | Buffalo | 2-3 | 4-8 | 4.0 | 8% | <1% |
| 131 | Missouri State | 1-4 | 3-9 | 2.6 | <1% | <1% |
| 132 | Akron | 1-4 | 3-9 | 3.2 | 2% | <1% |
| 133 | Bowling Green | 2-4 | 4-8 | 3.5 | 2% | <1% |
| 134 | Northern Illinois | 0-4 | 2-10 | 2.3 | <1% | <1% |
| 135 | UL Monroe | 0-5 | 1-11 | 1.2 | <1% | <1% |
| 136 | UTEP | 1-4 | 2-10 | 2.0 | <1% | <1% |
| 137 | Charlotte | 0-5 | 0-12 | 0.3 | <1% | <1% |
No team matches that.
Rank is this page's committee-style ranking: half the power index, half strength of record. Projected is the record a team is most likely to finish near, from its chance in each remaining game. Bowls and playoff games are not counted in these records, and a conference title game counts only once it is on the schedule.
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