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Has the ball Penn State 0
Loading Week 4, 2026
Has the ball Wisconsin 0
Field position PENN STATE WISCONSIN 10 10 20 20 30 30 40 40 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10

 

The situation

Waiting for the first snap

Once the game starts, this shows what each side needs and what it is trying to do on this snap.

Game flow

Points each offense has added, snap by snap. The line sits on the side of the team that has won more of the down-to-down battle.

Points added1st2nd3rd4thGame
Penn State0.00.00.00.00.0
Wisconsin0.00.00.00.00.0

This is not a win probability. It adds up how much each play changed the points a team could expect from its field position. Kicks and returns are not counted.

Plays

    Next play

    Waiting for the snap

    Run–
    Pass–
    No call yet
    Last play

    The game has not started.

    Odds come from how every team calls this situation, shifted for how this team calls its own. This game's plays are left out.

    Passing game

    Passing

    This gameSeason

    Where the ball goes

    Season numbers are the other games this year plus this one so far. Short and deep are the stat crew's labels, so a few throws have neither.

    Team stats

    Penn State Wisconsin

    Talking points

    This season

    59%passes that work
    Offense

    Throw it more on 1st & 7+

    On 1st & 7+ they run 62% of the time, but runs work 38% (25 of 66) and passes work 59% (24 of 41).

    44%of runs gain 4 or more
    Offense

    Give the backs a crease

    Only 44% of Penn State's runs gain 4 yards or more, against 49% for all teams. That ranks 117th of 137.

    64%of throws to him work
    Offense

    Get the ball to K. Howard

    Small sample

    R. Becht to K. Howard works 64% of the time (9 of 14 throws, 10 caught, 21.9 yards a throw). Everything else through the air works 39%. He gets 12% of the targets.

    35%of third and long converted against them
    Defense

    Get off the field on third and long

    Opponents convert third and long 35% of the time (9 of 26), against about 25% for all teams.

    0%all teams 42%
    Defense

    Stopping the pass on 3rd and medium

    Small sample

    Opponents' passes on 3rd and medium (4-6) work 0% of the time, against 42% for all teams (0 of 10 plays).

    All of Penn State's keys

    "Today" counts every play in this game so far and updates as it goes. "This season" leaves garbage time out. Copy puts the stat on your clipboard.

    From the season so far

    Keys to the game

    Model: Penn State 52%, by about 1
    52% Penn StateWisconsin 48%

    What Penn State needs to do

    14%Wisconsin allows 33%
    With the ball

    Wisconsin takes away the run on 2nd and medium

    Penn State's runs on 2nd and medium work 14% of the time (2 of 14), and Wisconsin holds them to 33% (4 of 12). All teams: 50%.

    64%of throws to him work
    With the ball

    Get the ball to K. Howard

    Small sample

    R. Becht to K. Howard works 64% of the time (9 of 14 throws, 10 caught, 21.9 yards a throw). Wisconsin lets passes work 33% of the time (all teams 43%).

    88%Wisconsin allows 78%
    With the ball

    Run on 2nd and short

    Penn State's runs on 2nd and short work 88% of the time (7 of 8), and Wisconsin lets them work 78% (7 of 9). All teams: 68%.

    57%of throws to him work
    On defense

    Take away C. Brooks Jr.

    Small sample

    C. Joseph to C. Brooks Jr. works 57% of the time (8 of 14 throws, 8 caught, 10.1 yards a throw). Everything else through the air works 41%.

    50%Penn State allows on 3rd and short
    On defense

    Win 3rd and short against the run

    Wisconsin's runs on 3rd and short work 38% of the time (3 of 8), and Penn State holds them to 50% (4 of 8). All teams: 69%.

    Tale of the tape

    Penn State Wisconsin
    40%111th of 137 Plays that work on offense 118th of 13738%
    38%114th of 137 Runs that work 128th of 13734%
    42%83rd of 137 Passes that work 73rd of 13743%
    39%86th of 137 Third downs converted 63rd of 13742%
    10%114th of 137 Big plays on offense 78th of 13712%
    13%43rd of 137 Runs stuffed for no gain 46th of 13714%
    1.64109th of 137 Points per drive 91st of 1371.96
    38%43rd of 137 Plays that work against the defense 20th of 13735%
    29%6th of 137 Third downs allowed 21st of 13732%
    5%92nd of 137 Sacks by the defense, per dropback 120th of 1374%
    5%55th of 137 Sacks allowed, per dropback 2nd of 1371%
    18%31st of 137 Havoc plays by the defense 81st of 13715%
    1.2020th of 137 Points per drive allowed 15th of 1371.18

    Each key sets one team's offense against the other's defense in the same situation, using Penn State's 5 games and Wisconsin's 5 so far, garbage time left out. The bold number in the comparison is the better one, and the small number beside it is that team's rank among FBS teams. Havoc plays are losses, sacks, passes broken up and takeaways. The win chance comes from this site's power index, and it is not a betting line.

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