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About and data sources Suggest an improvement
Has the ball Wake Forest 0
Loading Week 13, 2026
Has the ball Duke 0
Field position WAKE FOREST DUKE 10 10 20 20 30 30 40 40 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10

 

The situation

Waiting for the first snap

Once the game starts, this shows what each side needs and what it is trying to do on this snap.

Game flow

Points each offense has added, snap by snap. The line sits on the side of the team that has won more of the down-to-down battle.

Points added1st2nd3rd4thGame
Wake Forest0.00.00.00.00.0
Duke0.00.00.00.00.0

This is not a win probability. It adds up how much each play changed the points a team could expect from its field position. Kicks and returns are not counted.

Before kickoff

Keys to the game

Model: Wake Forest 74%, by about 8
74% Wake ForestDuke 26%

What Wake Forest needs to do

59%of throws to him work
With the ball

Get the ball to C. Hernandez

G. Lopez to C. Hernandez works 59% of the time (30 of 51 throws, 37 caught, 11.8 yards a throw). Duke lets passes work 39% of the time (all teams 43%).

36%Duke allows 44%
With the ball

Duke takes away the pass on 2nd and medium

Wake Forest's passes on 2nd and medium work 36% of the time (4 of 11), and Duke holds them to 44% (4 of 9). All teams: 51%.

52%Duke allows 57%
With the ball

Throw on 1st and long

Wake Forest's passes on 1st and long work 52% of the time (35 of 67), and Duke lets them work 57% (17 of 30). All teams: 49%.

64%of throws to him work
On defense

Take away N. Sheppard

Small sample

W. Eget to N. Sheppard works 64% of the time (7 of 11 throws, 9 caught, 6.1 yards a throw). Everything else through the air works 44%.

14%Wake Forest allows on 2nd and long
On defense

Force Duke into 2nd and long

Duke's runs on 2nd and long work 25% of the time (7 of 28), and Wake Forest holds them to 14% (2 of 14). All teams: 31%.

Tale of the tape

Wake Forest Duke
48%31st of 137 Plays that work on offense 70th of 13744%
50%21st of 137 Runs that work 94th of 13742%
47%34th of 137 Passes that work 41st of 13746%
45%37th of 137 Third downs converted 56th of 13743%
12%79th of 137 Big plays on offense 5th of 13718%
12%22nd of 137 Runs stuffed for no gain 84th of 13716%
3.1812th of 137 Points per drive 28th of 1372.87
44%98th of 137 Plays that work against the defense 34th of 13737%
41%98th of 137 Third downs allowed 13th of 13729%
8%42nd of 137 Sacks by the defense, per dropback 86th of 1375%
6%78th of 137 Sacks allowed, per dropback 3rd of 1371%
14%93rd of 137 Havoc plays by the defense 32nd of 13718%
2.0082nd of 137 Points per drive allowed 17th of 1371.19

Each key sets one team's offense against the other's defense in the same situation, using Wake Forest's 5 games and Duke's 4 so far, garbage time left out. The bold number in the comparison is the better one, and the small number beside it is that team's rank among FBS teams. Havoc plays are losses, sacks, passes broken up and takeaways. The win chance comes from this site's power index, and it is not a betting line.

Plays

    Next play

    Waiting for the snap

    Run–
    Pass–
    No call yet
    Last play

    The game has not started.

    Odds come from how every team calls this situation, shifted for how this team calls its own. This game's plays are left out.

    Passing game

    Passing

    This gameSeason

    Where the ball goes

    Season numbers are the other games this year plus this one so far. Short and deep are the stat crew's labels, so a few throws have neither.

    Team stats

    Wake Forest Duke

    Talking points

    This season

    59%of throws to him work
    Offense

    Get the ball to C. Hernandez

    G. Lopez to C. Hernandez works 59% of the time (30 of 51 throws, 37 caught, 11.8 yards a throw). Everything else through the air works 42%. He gets 37% of the targets.

    70%quarterback runs that work
    Offense

    G. Lopez's legs are the run game

    G. Lopez's runs work 70% of the time (26 of 37). Handoffs work 41% (38 of 92).

    4.9yards a carry
    Offense

    More carries for D. Lawrence

    Runs by D. Lawrence work 49% of the time (19 of 39, 4.9 yards a carry). Every other back combined: 36% (19 of 53).

    55%of middle eight plays work against it
    Defense

    Hold the middle eight

    In the last four minutes of the first half and the first four of the second, opponents' plays work 55% of the time against Wake Forest, against 43% for all teams. That ranks 131st of 137.

    49%of opponents' passes work
    Defense

    Tighten up against the pass

    Opponents' passes work 49% of the time (76 of 156), against 43% for all teams.

    All of Wake Forest's keys

    "Today" counts every play in this game so far and updates as it goes. "This season" leaves garbage time out. Copy puts the stat on your clipboard.

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