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About and data sources Suggest an improvement
Has the ball Duke 0
Loading Week 9, 2026
Has the ball Boston College 0
Field position DUKE BOSTON COLLEGE 10 10 20 20 30 30 40 40 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10

 

The situation

Waiting for the first snap

Once the game starts, this shows what each side needs and what it is trying to do on this snap.

Game flow

Points each offense has added, snap by snap. The line sits on the side of the team that has won more of the down-to-down battle.

Points added1st2nd3rd4thGame
Duke0.00.00.00.00.0
Boston College0.00.00.00.00.0

This is not a win probability. It adds up how much each play changed the points a team could expect from its field position. Kicks and returns are not counted.

Before kickoff

Keys to the game

Model: Duke 84%, by about 13
84% DukeBoston College 16%

What Duke needs to do

64%of throws to him work
With the ball

Get the ball to N. Sheppard

Small sample

W. Eget to N. Sheppard works 64% of the time (7 of 11 throws, 9 caught, 6.1 yards a throw). Boston College lets passes work 42% of the time (all teams 43%).

56%Boston College allows 56%
With the ball

Boston College takes away the run on 3rd and short

Duke's runs on 3rd and short work 56% of the time (5 of 9), and Boston College holds them to 56% (9 of 16). All teams: 69%.

48%Boston College allows 46%
With the ball

Throw on 2nd and long

Duke's passes on 2nd and long work 48% of the time (10 of 21), and Boston College lets them work 46% (19 of 41). All teams: 39%.

64%of throws to him work
On defense

Take away J. Montague Jr.

Small sample

M. McKenzie to J. Montague Jr. works 64% of the time (7 of 11 throws, 7 caught, 10.7 yards a throw). Everything else through the air works 31%.

9%of Boston College dropbacks end in a sack
On defense

Get to the quarterback

Boston College's quarterback has been sacked on 9% of dropbacks (14 of 152). Duke gets a sack on 5%. All teams: 5%.

Tale of the tape

Duke Boston College
44%70th of 137 Plays that work on offense 110th of 13740%
42%94th of 137 Runs that work 62nd of 13746%
46%41st of 137 Passes that work 129th of 13734%
43%56th of 137 Third downs converted 114th of 13734%
18%5th of 137 Big plays on offense 26th of 13715%
16%84th of 137 Runs stuffed for no gain 123rd of 13722%
2.8728th of 137 Points per drive 119th of 1371.52
37%34th of 137 Plays that work against the defense 56th of 13740%
29%13th of 137 Third downs allowed 90th of 13740%
5%86th of 137 Sacks by the defense, per dropback 40th of 1378%
1%3rd of 137 Sacks allowed, per dropback 119th of 1379%
18%32nd of 137 Havoc plays by the defense 42nd of 13717%
1.1917th of 137 Points per drive allowed 71st of 1371.95

Each key sets one team's offense against the other's defense in the same situation, using Duke's 4 games and Boston College's 5 so far, garbage time left out. The bold number in the comparison is the better one, and the small number beside it is that team's rank among FBS teams. Havoc plays are losses, sacks, passes broken up and takeaways. The win chance comes from this site's power index, and it is not a betting line.

Plays

    Next play

    Waiting for the snap

    Run–
    Pass–
    No call yet
    Last play

    The game has not started.

    Odds come from how every team calls this situation, shifted for how this team calls its own. This game's plays are left out.

    Passing game

    Passing

    This gameSeason

    Where the ball goes

    Season numbers are the other games this year plus this one so far. Short and deep are the stat crew's labels, so a few throws have neither.

    Team stats

    Duke Boston College

    Talking points

    This season

    34%of red zone plays work
    Offense

    Finish in the red zone

    Inside the 20, Duke's plays work 34% of the time, against 43% for all teams. That ranks 110th of 132.

    48%passes that work
    Offense

    Throw it more on 2nd & 7+

    On 2nd & 7+ they run 57% of the time, but runs work 25% (7 of 28) and passes work 48% (10 of 21).

    64%of throws to him work
    Offense

    Get the ball to N. Sheppard

    Small sample

    W. Eget to N. Sheppard works 64% of the time (7 of 11 throws, 9 caught, 6.1 yards a throw). Everything else through the air works 44%. He gets 12% of the targets.

    80%of third and short converted against them
    Defense

    Get off the field on third and short

    Small sample

    Opponents convert third and short 80% of the time (8 of 10), against about 62% for all teams.

    9%all teams 26%
    Defense

    Stopping the pass on 3rd and long

    Opponents' passes on 3rd and long (7 or more) work 9% of the time, against 26% for all teams (2 of 22 plays).

    All of Duke's keys

    "Today" counts every play in this game so far and updates as it goes. "This season" leaves garbage time out. Copy puts the stat on your clipboard.

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