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About and data sources Suggest an improvement
Has the ball Virginia 0
Loading Week 8, 2026
Has the ball Duke 0
Field position VIRGINIA DUKE 10 10 20 20 30 30 40 40 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10

 

The situation

Waiting for the first snap

Once the game starts, this shows what each side needs and what it is trying to do on this snap.

Game flow

Points each offense has added, snap by snap. The line sits on the side of the team that has won more of the down-to-down battle.

Points added1st2nd3rd4thGame
Virginia0.00.00.00.00.0
Duke0.00.00.00.00.0

This is not a win probability. It adds up how much each play changed the points a team could expect from its field position. Kicks and returns are not counted.

Before kickoff

Keys to the game

Model: Virginia 55%, by about 2
55% VirginiaDuke 45%

What Virginia needs to do

75%of throws to him work
With the ball

Get the ball to D. Twitty

Small sample

B. Pribula to D. Twitty works 75% of the time (6 of 8 throws, 7 caught, 7.8 yards a throw). Duke lets passes work 39% of the time (all teams 43%).

11%of dropbacks end in a sack
With the ball

Keep B. Pribula clean

B. Pribula has been sacked on 11% of dropbacks (13 of 123), and Duke gets a sack on 5%. All teams: 5%.

5%Duke allows 9%
With the ball

Stay out of 3rd and long

Virginia's passes on 3rd and long work 5% of the time (1 of 19), and Duke holds them to 9% (2 of 22). All teams: 26%.

64%of throws to him work
On defense

Take away N. Sheppard

Small sample

W. Eget to N. Sheppard works 64% of the time (7 of 11 throws, 9 caught, 6.1 yards a throw). Everything else through the air works 44%.

18%Virginia allows on 2nd and long
On defense

Force Duke into 2nd and long

Duke's runs on 2nd and long work 25% of the time (7 of 28), and Virginia holds them to 18% (4 of 22). All teams: 31%.

Tale of the tape

Virginia Duke
48%28th of 137 Plays that work on offense 69th of 13744%
49%28th of 137 Runs that work 94th of 13742%
48%32nd of 137 Passes that work 41st of 13746%
28%132nd of 137 Third downs converted 56th of 13743%
12%68th of 137 Big plays on offense 5th of 13718%
11%13th of 137 Runs stuffed for no gain 84th of 13716%
2.4058th of 137 Points per drive 28th of 1372.87
40%59th of 137 Plays that work against the defense 34th of 13737%
38%77th of 137 Third downs allowed 14th of 13729%
10%18th of 137 Sacks by the defense, per dropback 86th of 1375%
11%131st of 137 Sacks allowed, per dropback 3rd of 1371%
16%69th of 137 Havoc plays by the defense 32nd of 13718%
1.8964th of 137 Points per drive allowed 17th of 1371.19

Each key sets one team's offense against the other's defense in the same situation, using Virginia's 5 games and Duke's 4 so far, garbage time left out. The bold number in the comparison is the better one, and the small number beside it is that team's rank among FBS teams. Havoc plays are losses, sacks, passes broken up and takeaways. The win chance comes from this site's power index, and it is not a betting line.

Plays

    Next play

    Waiting for the snap

    Run–
    Pass–
    No call yet
    Last play

    The game has not started.

    Odds come from how every team calls this situation, shifted for how this team calls its own. This game's plays are left out.

    Passing game

    Passing

    This gameSeason

    Where the ball goes

    Season numbers are the other games this year plus this one so far. Short and deep are the stat crew's labels, so a few throws have neither.

    Team stats

    Virginia Duke

    Talking points

    This season

    21%of passing downs work
    Offense

    Get out of passing downs

    Virginia's plays work only 21% of the time on passing downs (second and 8 or more, third and 5 or more), against 30% for all teams. That ranks 130th of 137.

    11%of dropbacks end in a sack
    Offense

    Protect the quarterback

    B. Pribula has been sacked on 11% of dropbacks (13 of 123), against 5% for all teams.

    7.8yards a carry
    Offense

    More carries for N. Vaughn

    Runs by N. Vaughn work 81% of the time (13 of 16, 7.8 yards a carry). Every other back combined: 46% (43 of 94).

    83%of third and short converted against them
    Defense

    Get off the field on third and short

    Small sample

    Opponents convert third and short 83% of the time (10 of 12), against about 62% for all teams.

    23%all teams 39%
    Defense

    Stopping the pass on 2nd and long

    Opponents' passes on 2nd and long (7 or more) work 23% of the time, against 39% for all teams (6 of 26 plays).

    All of Virginia's keys

    "Today" counts every play in this game so far and updates as it goes. "This season" leaves garbage time out. Copy puts the stat on your clipboard.

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