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Has the ball California 0
Loading Week 3, 2026
Has the ball Wagner 0
Field position CALIFORNIA WAGNER 10 10 20 20 30 30 40 40 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10

 

The situation

Waiting for the first snap

Once the game starts, this shows what each side needs and what it is trying to do on this snap.

Game flow

Points each offense has added, snap by snap. The line sits on the side of the team that has won more of the down-to-down battle.

Points added1st2nd3rd4thGame
California0.00.00.00.00.0
Wagner0.00.00.00.00.0

This is not a win probability. It adds up how much each play changed the points a team could expect from its field position. Kicks and returns are not counted.

Plays

    Next play

    Waiting for the snap

    Run–
    Pass–
    No call yet
    Last play

    The game has not started.

    Odds come from how every team calls this situation, shifted for how this team calls its own. This game's plays are left out.

    Passing game

    Passing

    This gameSeason

    Where the ball goes

    Season numbers are the other games this year plus this one so far. Short and deep are the stat crew's labels, so a few throws have neither.

    Team stats

    California Wagner

    Talking points

    This season

    43%of runs gain 4 or more
    Offense

    Give the backs a crease

    Only 43% of California's runs gain 4 yards or more, against 49% for all teams. That ranks 119th of 138.

    36%of middle eight plays work
    Offense

    Own the middle eight

    In the last four minutes of the first half and the first four of the second, California's plays work 36% of the time, against 43% for all teams. That ranks 118th of 138.

    53%of throws to him work
    Offense

    Get the ball to A. Mohammed

    J. Sagapolutele to A. Mohammed works 53% of the time (10 of 19 throws, 17 caught, 8.8 yards a throw). Everything else through the air works 36%. He gets 10% of the targets.

    11%of opponents' runs stuffed
    Defense

    Win more first contact

    California stuffs only 11% of opponents' runs for no gain, against 16% for all teams. That ranks 128th of 138.

    13%of snaps end in a havoc play
    Defense

    Make more plays behind the line

    California wrecks 13% of opponents' snaps with a loss, a break-up or a takeaway, against 15% for all teams. That ranks 111th of 138.

    All of California's keys

    "Today" counts every play in this game so far and updates as it goes. "This season" leaves garbage time out. Copy puts the stat on your clipboard.

    From the season so far

    Keys to the game

    Model: California 92%, by about 21
    92% CaliforniaWagner 8%

    What California needs to do

    53%of throws to him work
    With the ball

    Get the ball to A. Mohammed

    J. Sagapolutele to A. Mohammed works 53% of the time (10 of 19 throws, 17 caught, 8.8 yards a throw). Wagner lets passes work 60% of the time (all teams 43%).

    33%Wagner allows 55%
    With the ball

    Throw on 2nd and long

    California's passes on 2nd and long work 33% of the time (19 of 57), and Wagner lets them work 55% (6 of 11). All teams: 39%.

    40%of throws to him work
    On defense

    Take away Z. Fowler-El

    Small sample

    B. Newman to Z. Fowler-El works 40% of the time (4 of 10 throws, 6 caught, 5.3 yards a throw). Everything else through the air works 26%.

    35%California allows on 1st and long
    On defense

    Win 1st and long against the run

    Wagner's runs on 1st and long work 0% of the time (0 of 12), and California holds them to 35% (22 of 63). All teams: 41%.

    Tale of the tape

    California Wagner
    38%122nd of 138 Plays that work on offense 24%
    37%119th of 138 Runs that work 12%
    38%110th of 138 Passes that work 29%
    35%104th of 138 Third downs converted 32%
    9%120th of 138 Big plays on offense 6%
    19%111th of 138 Runs stuffed for no gain 17%
    1.9096th of 138 Points per drive 0.71
    36%30th of 138 Plays that work against the defense 58%
    39%83rd of 138 Third downs allowed 60%
    6%67th of 138 Sacks by the defense, per dropback 2%
    4%47th of 138 Sacks allowed, per dropback 2%
    13%111th of 138 Havoc plays by the defense 11%
    2.24103rd of 138 Points per drive allowed 5.15

    Each key sets one team's offense against the other's defense in the same situation, using California's 5 games and Wagner's 2 so far, garbage time left out. The bold number in the comparison is the better one, and the small number beside it is that team's rank among FBS teams. Havoc plays are losses, sacks, passes broken up and takeaways. The win chance comes from this site's power index, and it is not a betting line.

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