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Has the ball Illinois 0
Loading Week 2, 2026
Has the ball Duke 0
Field position ILLINOIS DUKE 10 10 20 20 30 30 40 40 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10

 

The situation

Waiting for the first snap

Once the game starts, this shows what each side needs and what it is trying to do on this snap.

Game flow

Points each offense has added, snap by snap. The line sits on the side of the team that has won more of the down-to-down battle.

Points added1st2nd3rd4thGame
Illinois0.00.00.00.00.0
Duke0.00.00.00.00.0

This is not a win probability. It adds up how much each play changed the points a team could expect from its field position. Kicks and returns are not counted.

Plays

    Next play

    Waiting for the snap

    Run–
    Pass–
    No call yet
    Last play

    The game has not started.

    Odds come from how every team calls this situation, shifted for how this team calls its own. This game's plays are left out.

    Passing game

    Passing

    This gameSeason

    Where the ball goes

    Season numbers are the other games this year plus this one so far. Short and deep are the stat crew's labels, so a few throws have neither.

    Team stats

    Illinois Duke

    Talking points

    This season

    33%of red zone plays work
    Offense

    Finish in the red zone

    Inside the 20, Illinois's plays work 33% of the time, against 43% for all teams. That ranks 113th of 132.

    72%quarterback runs that work
    Offense

    K. Houser's legs are the run game

    K. Houser's runs work 72% of the time (13 of 18). Handoffs work 42% (44 of 104).

    73%of throws to him work
    Offense

    Get the ball to T. Robinson

    Small sample

    K. Houser to T. Robinson works 73% of the time (8 of 11 throws, 10 caught, 14.0 yards a throw). Everything else through the air works 51%. He gets 8% of the targets.

    2.67points per drive allowed
    Defense

    Get stops

    Opponents score 2.67 points per drive against Illinois, against 2.07 for all teams. That ranks 127th of 137.

    12%of snaps end in a havoc play
    Defense

    Make more plays behind the line

    Illinois wrecks 12% of opponents' snaps with a loss, a break-up or a takeaway, against 15% for all teams. That ranks 124th of 137.

    All of Illinois's keys

    "Today" counts every play in this game so far and updates as it goes. "This season" leaves garbage time out. Copy puts the stat on your clipboard.

    From the season so far

    Keys to the game

    Model: Duke 63%, by about 4
    37% IllinoisDuke 63%

    What Illinois needs to do

    73%of throws to him work
    With the ball

    Get the ball to T. Robinson

    Small sample

    K. Houser to T. Robinson works 73% of the time (8 of 11 throws, 10 caught, 14.0 yards a throw). Duke lets passes work 39% of the time (all teams 43%).

    31%Duke allows 9%
    With the ball

    Duke takes away the run on 2nd and long

    Illinois's runs on 2nd and long work 31% of the time (5 of 16), and Duke holds them to 9% (1 of 11). All teams: 31%.

    54%Duke allows 57%
    With the ball

    Throw on 1st and long

    Illinois's passes on 1st and long work 54% of the time (32 of 59), and Duke lets them work 57% (17 of 30). All teams: 49%.

    64%of throws to him work
    On defense

    Take away N. Sheppard

    Small sample

    W. Eget to N. Sheppard works 64% of the time (7 of 11 throws, 9 caught, 6.1 yards a throw). Everything else through the air works 44%.

    46%Illinois allows on 2nd and medium
    On defense

    Win 2nd and medium against the run

    Duke's runs on 2nd and medium work 33% of the time (3 of 9), and Illinois holds them to 46% (6 of 13). All teams: 50%.

    Tale of the tape

    Illinois Duke
    50%17th of 137 Plays that work on offense 70th of 13744%
    47%56th of 137 Runs that work 94th of 13742%
    53%14th of 137 Passes that work 41st of 13746%
    45%42nd of 137 Third downs converted 56th of 13743%
    12%82nd of 137 Big plays on offense 5th of 13718%
    11%14th of 137 Runs stuffed for no gain 84th of 13716%
    3.0023rd of 137 Points per drive 28th of 1372.87
    46%118th of 137 Plays that work against the defense 34th of 13737%
    43%113th of 137 Third downs allowed 13th of 13729%
    2%133rd of 137 Sacks by the defense, per dropback 86th of 1375%
    3%26th of 137 Sacks allowed, per dropback 3rd of 1371%
    12%124th of 137 Havoc plays by the defense 32nd of 13718%
    2.67127th of 137 Points per drive allowed 17th of 1371.19

    Each key sets one team's offense against the other's defense in the same situation, using Illinois's 5 games and Duke's 4 so far, garbage time left out. The bold number in the comparison is the better one, and the small number beside it is that team's rank among FBS teams. Havoc plays are losses, sacks, passes broken up and takeaways. The win chance comes from this site's power index, and it is not a betting line.

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