nextsnap
About and data sources Suggest an improvement
Has the ball TCU 0
Loading Week 11, 2026
Has the ball Kansas State 0
Field position TCU KANSAS STATE 10 10 20 20 30 30 40 40 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10

 

The situation

Waiting for the first snap

Once the game starts, this shows what each side needs and what it is trying to do on this snap.

Game flow

Points each offense has added, snap by snap. The line sits on the side of the team that has won more of the down-to-down battle.

Points added1st2nd3rd4thGame
TCU0.00.00.00.00.0
Kansas State0.00.00.00.00.0

This is not a win probability. It adds up how much each play changed the points a team could expect from its field position. Kicks and returns are not counted.

Before kickoff

Keys to the game

Model: TCU 59%, by about 3
59% TCUKansas State 41%

What TCU needs to do

64%of throws to him work
With the ball

Get the ball to K. Ashley

J. Craig to K. Ashley works 64% of the time (18 of 28 throws, 21 caught, 10.7 yards a throw). Kansas State lets passes work 35% of the time (all teams 43%).

8%of dropbacks end in a sack
With the ball

Keep J. Craig clean

J. Craig has been sacked on 8% of dropbacks (13 of 157), and Kansas State gets a sack on 10%. All teams: 5%.

78%Kansas State allows 38%
With the ball

Kansas State takes away the run on 3rd and short

TCU's runs on 3rd and short work 78% of the time (7 of 9), and Kansas State holds them to 38% (3 of 8). All teams: 69%.

52%of throws to him work
On defense

Take away J. Tibbs

A. Johnson to J. Tibbs works 52% of the time (13 of 25 throws, 15 caught, 6.4 yards a throw). Everything else through the air works 41%.

33%TCU allows on 2nd and short
On defense

Win 2nd and short against the run

Kansas State's runs on 2nd and short work 62% of the time (10 of 16), and TCU holds them to 33% (4 of 12). All teams: 68%.

Tale of the tape

TCU Kansas State
42%82nd of 138 Plays that work on offense 31st of 13848%
42%94th of 138 Runs that work 5th of 13854%
43%70th of 138 Passes that work 62nd of 13843%
39%78th of 138 Third downs converted 2nd of 13862%
11%95th of 138 Big plays on offense 56th of 13813%
19%105th of 138 Runs stuffed for no gain 40th of 13813%
1.67109th of 138 Points per drive 28th of 1382.82
37%28th of 138 Plays that work against the defense 35th of 13838%
33%35th of 138 Third downs allowed 72nd of 13838%
7%53rd of 138 Sacks by the defense, per dropback 15th of 13810%
8%111th of 138 Sacks allowed, per dropback 1st of 1381%
16%59th of 138 Havoc plays by the defense 33rd of 13817%
1.2116th of 138 Points per drive allowed 83rd of 1382.02

Each key sets one team's offense against the other's defense in the same situation, using TCU's 5 games and Kansas State's 5 so far, garbage time left out. The bold number in the comparison is the better one, and the small number beside it is that team's rank among FBS teams. Havoc plays are losses, sacks, passes broken up and takeaways. The win chance comes from this site's power index, and it is not a betting line.

Plays

    Next play

    Waiting for the snap

    Run–
    Pass–
    No call yet
    Last play

    The game has not started.

    Odds come from how every team calls this situation, shifted for how this team calls its own. This game's plays are left out.

    Passing game

    Passing

    This gameSeason

    Where the ball goes

    Season numbers are the other games this year plus this one so far. Short and deep are the stat crew's labels, so a few throws have neither.

    Team stats

    TCU Kansas State

    Talking points

    This season

    22%of passing downs work
    Offense

    Get out of passing downs

    TCU's plays work only 22% of the time on passing downs (second and 8 or more, third and 5 or more), against 30% for all teams. That ranks 129th of 138.

    64%of throws to him work
    Offense

    Get the ball to K. Ashley

    J. Craig to K. Ashley works 64% of the time (18 of 28 throws, 21 caught, 10.7 yards a throw). Everything else through the air works 38%. He gets 20% of the targets.

    43%of runs gain 4 or more
    Offense

    Give the backs a crease

    Only 43% of TCU's runs gain 4 yards or more, against 49% for all teams. That ranks 116th of 138.

    33%all teams 68%
    Defense

    Stopping the run on 2nd and short

    Small sample

    Opponents' runs on 2nd and short (1-3 yards) work 33% of the time, against 68% for all teams (4 of 12 plays).

    28%all teams 41%
    Defense

    Stopping the run on 1st and long

    Opponents' runs on 1st and long (7 or more) work 28% of the time, against 41% for all teams (16 of 58 plays).

    All of TCU's keys

    "Today" counts every play in this game so far and updates as it goes. "This season" leaves garbage time out. Copy puts the stat on your clipboard.