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About and data sources Suggest an improvement
Has the ball Old Dominion 0
Loading Week 13, 2026
Has the ball Southern Miss 0
Field position OLD DOMINION SOUTHERN MISS 10 10 20 20 30 30 40 40 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10

 

The situation

Waiting for the first snap

Once the game starts, this shows what each side needs and what it is trying to do on this snap.

Game flow

Points each offense has added, snap by snap. The line sits on the side of the team that has won more of the down-to-down battle.

Points added1st2nd3rd4thGame
Old Dominion0.00.00.00.00.0
Southern Miss0.00.00.00.00.0

This is not a win probability. It adds up how much each play changed the points a team could expect from its field position. Kicks and returns are not counted.

Before kickoff

Keys to the game

Model: Old Dominion 63%, by about 5
63% Old DominionSouthern Miss 37%

What Old Dominion needs to do

47%of throws to him work
With the ball

Get the ball to T. Johnson

Q. Henicle to T. Johnson works 47% of the time (7 of 15 throws, 10 caught, 9.9 yards a throw). Southern Miss lets passes work 42% of the time (all teams 43%).

17%of dropbacks end in a sack
With the ball

Keep Q. Henicle clean

Q. Henicle has been sacked on 17% of dropbacks (20 of 116), and Southern Miss gets a sack on 7%. All teams: 5%.

33%Southern Miss allows 80%
With the ball

Southern Miss takes away the run on 3rd and short

Old Dominion's runs on 3rd and short work 33% of the time (3 of 9), and Southern Miss holds them to 80% (12 of 15). All teams: 69%.

67%of throws to him work
On defense

Take away K. Saunders

Small sample

E. Hampton to K. Saunders works 67% of the time (8 of 12 throws, 9 caught, 12.9 yards a throw). Everything else through the air works 40%.

36%Old Dominion allows on 3rd and medium
On defense

Win 3rd and medium against the pass

Southern Miss's passes on 3rd and medium work 18% of the time (2 of 11), and Old Dominion holds them to 36% (5 of 14). All teams: 42%.

Tale of the tape

Old Dominion Southern Miss
30%137th of 137 Plays that work on offense 62nd of 13744%
34%132nd of 137 Runs that work 57th of 13747%
27%136th of 137 Passes that work 77th of 13742%
33%111th of 137 Third downs converted 134th of 13726%
14%43rd of 137 Big plays on offense 91st of 13711%
29%137th of 137 Runs stuffed for no gain 30th of 13713%
1.40124th of 137 Points per drive 89th of 1371.98
37%33rd of 137 Plays that work against the defense 114th of 13746%
34%42nd of 137 Third downs allowed 121st of 13746%
7%51st of 137 Sacks by the defense, per dropback 60th of 1377%
17%136th of 137 Sacks allowed, per dropback 64th of 1375%
16%58th of 137 Havoc plays by the defense 133rd of 13710%
1.7652nd of 137 Points per drive allowed 132nd of 1372.83

Each key sets one team's offense against the other's defense in the same situation, using Old Dominion's 5 games and Southern Miss's 5 so far, garbage time left out. The bold number in the comparison is the better one, and the small number beside it is that team's rank among FBS teams. Havoc plays are losses, sacks, passes broken up and takeaways. The win chance comes from this site's power index, and it is not a betting line.

Plays

    Next play

    Waiting for the snap

    Run–
    Pass–
    No call yet
    Last play

    The game has not started.

    Odds come from how every team calls this situation, shifted for how this team calls its own. This game's plays are left out.

    Passing game

    Passing

    This gameSeason

    Where the ball goes

    Season numbers are the other games this year plus this one so far. Short and deep are the stat crew's labels, so a few throws have neither.

    Team stats

    Old Dominion Southern Miss

    Talking points

    This season

    17%of dropbacks end in a sack
    Offense

    Protect the quarterback

    Q. Henicle has been sacked on 17% of dropbacks (20 of 116), against 5% for all teams.

    16%of snaps lose yards
    Offense

    Cut the plays that go backwards

    16% of snaps lose yardage (39 of 240), against 8% for all teams.

    29%of runs stuffed
    Offense

    Too many runs go nowhere

    29% of Old Dominion's runs are stopped for no gain or a loss, against 16% for all teams. That ranks 137th of 137.

    33%all teams 48%
    Defense

    Stopping the run in the red zone

    Opponents' runs in the red zone work 33% of the time, against 48% for all teams (8 of 24 plays).

    39%all teams 49%
    Defense

    Stopping the pass on 1st and long

    Opponents' passes on 1st and long (7 or more) work 39% of the time, against 49% for all teams (19 of 49 plays).

    All of Old Dominion's keys

    "Today" counts every play in this game so far and updates as it goes. "This season" leaves garbage time out. Copy puts the stat on your clipboard.

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