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Has the ball Southern Miss 0
Loading Week 12, 2026
Has the ball South Alabama 0
Field position SOUTHERN MISS SOUTH ALABAMA 10 10 20 20 30 30 40 40 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10

 

The situation

Waiting for the first snap

Once the game starts, this shows what each side needs and what it is trying to do on this snap.

Game flow

Points each offense has added, snap by snap. The line sits on the side of the team that has won more of the down-to-down battle.

Points added1st2nd3rd4thGame
Southern Miss0.00.00.00.00.0
South Alabama0.00.00.00.00.0

This is not a win probability. It adds up how much each play changed the points a team could expect from its field position. Kicks and returns are not counted.

Before kickoff

Keys to the game

Model: Southern Miss 53%, by about 1
53% Southern MissSouth Alabama 47%

What Southern Miss needs to do

67%of throws to him work
With the ball

Get the ball to K. Saunders

Small sample

E. Hampton to K. Saunders works 67% of the time (8 of 12 throws, 9 caught, 12.9 yards a throw). South Alabama lets passes work 47% of the time (all teams 43%).

53%South Alabama allows 50%
With the ball

Run on 2nd and long

Southern Miss's runs on 2nd and long work 53% of the time (9 of 17), and South Alabama lets them work 50% (14 of 28). All teams: 31%.

18%South Alabama allows 44%
With the ball

South Alabama takes away the pass on 3rd and medium

Southern Miss's passes on 3rd and medium work 18% of the time (2 of 11), and South Alabama holds them to 44% (4 of 9). All teams: 42%.

58%of throws to him work
On defense

Take away B. Jenkins

J. Hollins to B. Jenkins works 58% of the time (19 of 33 throws, 20 caught, 9.7 yards a throw). Everything else through the air works 41%.

35%Southern Miss allows on 2nd and medium
On defense

Win 2nd and medium against the run

South Alabama's runs on 2nd and medium work 50% of the time (9 of 18), and Southern Miss holds them to 35% (7 of 20). All teams: 50%.

Tale of the tape

Southern Miss South Alabama
44%62nd of 137 Plays that work on offense 76th of 13743%
47%58th of 137 Runs that work 92nd of 13742%
42%78th of 137 Passes that work 47th of 13745%
26%134th of 137 Third downs converted 33rd of 13746%
11%90th of 137 Big plays on offense 83rd of 13712%
13%30th of 137 Runs stuffed for no gain 35th of 13713%
1.9889th of 137 Points per drive 38th of 1372.72
46%114th of 137 Plays that work against the defense 124th of 13747%
46%121st of 137 Third downs allowed 82nd of 13739%
7%60th of 137 Sacks by the defense, per dropback 80th of 1376%
5%64th of 137 Sacks allowed, per dropback 21st of 1373%
10%133rd of 137 Havoc plays by the defense 67th of 13716%
2.83132nd of 137 Points per drive allowed 131st of 1372.81

Each key sets one team's offense against the other's defense in the same situation, using Southern Miss's 5 games and South Alabama's 5 so far, garbage time left out. The bold number in the comparison is the better one, and the small number beside it is that team's rank among FBS teams. Havoc plays are losses, sacks, passes broken up and takeaways. The win chance comes from this site's power index, and it is not a betting line.

Plays

    Next play

    Waiting for the snap

    Run–
    Pass–
    No call yet
    Last play

    The game has not started.

    Odds come from how every team calls this situation, shifted for how this team calls its own. This game's plays are left out.

    Passing game

    Passing

    This gameSeason

    Where the ball goes

    Season numbers are the other games this year plus this one so far. Short and deep are the stat crew's labels, so a few throws have neither.

    Team stats

    Southern Miss South Alabama

    Talking points

    This season

    67%of throws to him work
    Offense

    Get the ball to K. Saunders

    Small sample

    E. Hampton to K. Saunders works 67% of the time (8 of 12 throws, 9 caught, 12.9 yards a throw). Everything else through the air works 40%. He gets 9% of the targets.

    27%of passing downs work
    Offense

    Get out of passing downs

    Southern Miss's plays work only 27% of the time on passing downs (second and 8 or more, third and 5 or more), against 30% for all teams. That ranks 108th of 137.

    5 of 6third and fourth downs converted
    Offense

    M. Sanders on third down

    Small sample

    On third and fourth down, E. Hampton to M. Sanders has moved the chains 5 of 6 times (83%).

    10%of snaps end in a havoc play
    Defense

    Make more plays behind the line

    Southern Miss wrecks 10% of opponents' snaps with a loss, a break-up or a takeaway, against 15% for all teams. That ranks 133rd of 137.

    2.83points per drive allowed
    Defense

    Get stops

    Opponents score 2.83 points per drive against Southern Miss, against 2.07 for all teams. That ranks 132nd of 137.

    All of Southern Miss's keys

    "Today" counts every play in this game so far and updates as it goes. "This season" leaves garbage time out. Copy puts the stat on your clipboard.

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