nextsnap
About and data sources Suggest an improvement
Has the ball Troy 0
Loading Week 12, 2026
Has the ball Georgia Southern 0
Field position TROY GEORGIA SOUTHERN 10 10 20 20 30 30 40 40 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10

 

The situation

Waiting for the first snap

Once the game starts, this shows what each side needs and what it is trying to do on this snap.

Game flow

Points each offense has added, snap by snap. The line sits on the side of the team that has won more of the down-to-down battle.

Points added1st2nd3rd4thGame
Troy0.00.00.00.00.0
Georgia Southern0.00.00.00.00.0

This is not a win probability. It adds up how much each play changed the points a team could expect from its field position. Kicks and returns are not counted.

Before kickoff

Keys to the game

Model: Georgia Southern 51%
49% TroyGeorgia Southern 51%

What Troy needs to do

5.6yards a carry
With the ball

More carries for J. Merriweather

Runs by J. Merriweather work 46% of the time (23 of 50, 5.6 yards a carry). Georgia Southern lets runs work 43% of the time (all teams 45%).

6%of dropbacks end in a sack
With the ball

Keep G. Crowder clean

G. Crowder has been sacked on 6% of dropbacks (10 of 166), and Georgia Southern gets a sack on 7%. All teams: 5%.

35%Georgia Southern allows 23%
With the ball

Georgia Southern takes away the pass on 3rd and medium

Troy's passes on 3rd and medium work 35% of the time (6 of 17), and Georgia Southern holds them to 23% (3 of 13). All teams: 42%.

62%of throws to him work
On defense

Take away R. Helms

M. Johnson to R. Helms works 62% of the time (18 of 29 throws, 23 caught, 8.1 yards a throw). Everything else through the air works 41%.

46%Troy allows on 2nd and medium
On defense

Win 2nd and medium against the run

Georgia Southern's runs on 2nd and medium work 29% of the time (4 of 14), and Troy holds them to 46% (6 of 13). All teams: 49%.

Tale of the tape

Troy Georgia Southern
43%78th of 138 Plays that work on offense 64th of 13844%
44%70th of 138 Runs that work 86th of 13843%
40%89th of 138 Passes that work 54th of 13844%
38%83rd of 138 Third downs converted 66th of 13842%
12%74th of 138 Big plays on offense 112th of 13810%
18%99th of 138 Runs stuffed for no gain 64th of 13815%
2.1669th of 138 Points per drive 91st of 1381.97
40%56th of 138 Plays that work against the defense 70th of 13841%
30%18th of 138 Third downs allowed 39th of 13833%
7%66th of 138 Sacks by the defense, per dropback 47th of 1387%
6%83rd of 138 Sacks allowed, per dropback 24th of 1383%
17%34th of 138 Havoc plays by the defense 84th of 13814%
1.8562nd of 138 Points per drive allowed 93rd of 1382.15

Each key sets one team's offense against the other's defense in the same situation, using Troy's 5 games and Georgia Southern's 6 so far, garbage time left out. The bold number in the comparison is the better one, and the small number beside it is that team's rank among FBS teams. Havoc plays are losses, sacks, passes broken up and takeaways. The win chance comes from this site's power index, and it is not a betting line.

Plays

    Next play

    Waiting for the snap

    Run–
    Pass–
    No call yet
    Last play

    The game has not started.

    Odds come from how every team calls this situation, shifted for how this team calls its own. This game's plays are left out.

    Passing game

    Passing

    This gameSeason

    Where the ball goes

    Season numbers are the other games this year plus this one so far. Short and deep are the stat crew's labels, so a few throws have neither.

    Team stats

    Troy Georgia Southern

    Talking points

    This season

    71%passes that work
    Offense

    Throw it more on 2nd & 4-6

    On 2nd & 4-6 they run 60% of the time, but runs work 43% (9 of 21) and passes work 71% (10 of 14).

    62%runs that work
    Offense

    Run it more on 3rd & 4-6

    On 3rd & 4-6 they throw 68% of the time, but passes work 35% (6 of 17) and runs work 62% (5 of 8).

    17%of snaps wrecked by the defense
    Offense

    Keep the defense out of the backfield

    17% of Troy's snaps end in a loss, a pass broken up or a turnover, against 15% for all teams. That ranks 111th of 138.

    25%all teams 38%
    Defense

    Stopping the pass in the red zone

    Opponents' passes in the red zone work 25% of the time, against 38% for all teams (6 of 24 plays).

    35%all teams 48%
    Defense

    Stopping the run in the red zone

    Opponents' runs in the red zone work 35% of the time, against 48% for all teams (6 of 17 plays).

    All of Troy's keys

    "Today" counts every play in this game so far and updates as it goes. "This season" leaves garbage time out. Copy puts the stat on your clipboard.