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Has the ball Miami (OH) 0
Loading Week 10, 2026
Has the ball Buffalo 0
Field position MIAMI (OH) BUFFALO 10 10 20 20 30 30 40 40 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10

 

The situation

Waiting for the first snap

Once the game starts, this shows what each side needs and what it is trying to do on this snap.

Game flow

Points each offense has added, snap by snap. The line sits on the side of the team that has won more of the down-to-down battle.

Points added1st2nd3rd4thGame
Miami (OH)0.00.00.00.00.0
Buffalo0.00.00.00.00.0

This is not a win probability. It adds up how much each play changed the points a team could expect from its field position. Kicks and returns are not counted.

Before kickoff

Keys to the game

Model: Miami (OH) 88%, by about 18
88% Miami (OH)Buffalo 12%

What Miami (OH) needs to do

60%of throws to him work
With the ball

Get the ball to M. Huggins

D. McComb to M. Huggins works 60% of the time (12 of 20 throws, 13 caught, 12.7 yards a throw). Buffalo lets passes work 37% of the time (all teams 43%).

15%Buffalo allows 5%
With the ball

Buffalo takes away the run on 2nd and long

Miami (OH)'s runs on 2nd and long work 15% of the time (3 of 20), and Buffalo holds them to 5% (1 of 22). All teams: 31%.

50%of throws to him work
On defense

Take away T. Wilson

Small sample

J. Wright to T. Wilson works 50% of the time (4 of 8 throws, 5 caught, 6.5 yards a throw). Everything else through the air works 32%.

75%Miami (OH) allows on 2nd and medium
On defense

Shore up the pass defense on 2nd and medium

Buffalo's passes on 2nd and medium work 50% of the time (6 of 12), and Miami (OH) has let them work 75% (9 of 12). All teams: 51%.

Tale of the tape

Miami (OH) Buffalo
43%83rd of 137 Plays that work on offense 131st of 13735%
38%113th of 137 Runs that work 116th of 13738%
46%42nd of 137 Passes that work 130th of 13733%
38%89th of 137 Third downs converted 101st of 13736%
17%12th of 137 Big plays on offense 127th of 1379%
14%53rd of 137 Runs stuffed for no gain 61st of 13715%
2.1672nd of 137 Points per drive 120th of 1371.48
45%112th of 137 Plays that work against the defense 39th of 13738%
44%116th of 137 Third downs allowed 57th of 13736%
5%97th of 137 Sacks by the defense, per dropback 116th of 1374%
9%117th of 137 Sacks allowed, per dropback 89th of 1377%
12%120th of 137 Havoc plays by the defense 51st of 13717%
2.32107th of 137 Points per drive allowed 54th of 1371.79

Each key sets one team's offense against the other's defense in the same situation, using Miami (OH)'s 5 games and Buffalo's 5 so far, garbage time left out. The bold number in the comparison is the better one, and the small number beside it is that team's rank among FBS teams. Havoc plays are losses, sacks, passes broken up and takeaways. The win chance comes from this site's power index, and it is not a betting line.

Plays

    Next play

    Waiting for the snap

    Run–
    Pass–
    No call yet
    Last play

    The game has not started.

    Odds come from how every team calls this situation, shifted for how this team calls its own. This game's plays are left out.

    Passing game

    Passing

    This gameSeason

    Where the ball goes

    Season numbers are the other games this year plus this one so far. Short and deep are the stat crew's labels, so a few throws have neither.

    Team stats

    Miami (OH) Buffalo

    Talking points

    This season

    42%of runs gain 4 or more
    Offense

    Give the backs a crease

    Only 42% of Miami (OH)'s runs gain 4 yards or more, against 49% for all teams. That ranks 126th of 137.

    57%passes that work
    Offense

    Throw it more on 1st & 7+

    On 1st & 7+ they run 49% of the time, but runs work 32% (17 of 53) and passes work 57% (32 of 56).

    36%of middle eight plays work
    Offense

    Own the middle eight

    In the last four minutes of the first half and the first four of the second, Miami (OH)'s plays work 36% of the time, against 43% for all teams. That ranks 117th of 137.

    70%of red zone plays work against it
    Defense

    Tighten up in the red zone

    Inside the 20, opponents' plays work 70% of the time against Miami (OH), against 43% for all teams. That ranks 126th of 126.

    12%of snaps end in a havoc play
    Defense

    Make more plays behind the line

    Miami (OH) wrecks 12% of opponents' snaps with a loss, a break-up or a takeaway, against 15% for all teams. That ranks 120th of 137.

    All of Miami (OH)'s keys

    "Today" counts every play in this game so far and updates as it goes. "This season" leaves garbage time out. Copy puts the stat on your clipboard.

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