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Has the ball Buffalo 0
Loading Week 5, 2026
Has the ball Western Michigan 0
Field position BUFFALO WESTERN MICHIGAN 10 10 20 20 30 30 40 40 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10

 

The situation

Waiting for the first snap

Once the game starts, this shows what each side needs and what it is trying to do on this snap.

Game flow

Points each offense has added, snap by snap. The line sits on the side of the team that has won more of the down-to-down battle.

Points added1st2nd3rd4thGame
Buffalo0.00.00.00.00.0
Western Michigan0.00.00.00.00.0

This is not a win probability. It adds up how much each play changed the points a team could expect from its field position. Kicks and returns are not counted.

Plays

    Next play

    Waiting for the snap

    Run–
    Pass–
    No call yet
    Last play

    The game has not started.

    Odds come from how every team calls this situation, shifted for how this team calls its own. This game's plays are left out.

    Passing game

    Passing

    This gameSeason

    Where the ball goes

    Season numbers are the other games this year plus this one so far. Short and deep are the stat crew's labels, so a few throws have neither.

    Team stats

    Buffalo Western Michigan

    Talking points

    This season

    36%of available yards gained
    Offense

    Finish what the drive starts

    Buffalo gains 36% of the yards between its starting spot and the end zone, against 47% for all teams. That ranks 132nd of 138.

    21%of passing downs work
    Offense

    Get out of passing downs

    Buffalo's plays work only 21% of the time on passing downs (second and 8 or more, third and 5 or more), against 30% for all teams. That ranks 130th of 138.

    50%of throws to him work
    Offense

    Get the ball to D. Early

    J. Wright to D. Early works 50% of the time (8 of 16 throws, 10 caught, 8.4 yards a throw). Everything else through the air works 32%. He gets 9% of the targets.

    71%of third and short converted against them
    Defense

    Get off the field on third and short

    Opponents convert third and short 71% of the time (12 of 17), against about 62% for all teams.

    7%all teams 31%
    Defense

    Stopping the run on 2nd and long

    Opponents' runs on 2nd and long (7 or more) work 7% of the time, against 31% for all teams (2 of 30 plays).

    All of Buffalo's keys

    "Today" counts every play in this game so far and updates as it goes. "This season" leaves garbage time out. Copy puts the stat on your clipboard.

    From the season so far

    Keys to the game

    Model: Western Michigan 68%, by about 7
    32% BuffaloWestern Michigan 68%

    What Buffalo needs to do

    2.8yards a carry
    With the ball

    More carries for N. Hill

    Runs by N. Hill work 42% of the time (21 of 50, 2.8 yards a carry). Western Michigan lets runs work 44% of the time (all teams 45%).

    7%of dropbacks end in a sack
    With the ball

    Keep J. Wright clean

    J. Wright has been sacked on 7% of dropbacks (15 of 203), and Western Michigan gets a sack on 7%. All teams: 5%.

    35%Western Michigan allows 45%
    With the ball

    Western Michigan takes away the run on 2nd and medium

    Buffalo's runs on 2nd and medium work 35% of the time (9 of 26), and Western Michigan holds them to 45% (9 of 20). All teams: 49%.

    52%of throws to him work
    On defense

    Take away A. Chenault

    B. Lowry to A. Chenault works 52% of the time (11 of 21 throws, 17 caught, 12.6 yards a throw). Everything else through the air works 36%.

    7%Buffalo allows on 2nd and long
    On defense

    Force Western Michigan into 2nd and long

    Western Michigan's runs on 2nd and long work 20% of the time (6 of 30), and Buffalo holds them to 7% (2 of 30). All teams: 31%.

    Tale of the tape

    Buffalo Western Michigan
    35%132nd of 138 Plays that work on offense 98th of 13841%
    37%120th of 138 Runs that work 89th of 13843%
    33%131st of 138 Passes that work 95th of 13839%
    37%97th of 138 Third downs converted 70th of 13840%
    8%133rd of 138 Big plays on offense 131st of 1388%
    15%69th of 138 Runs stuffed for no gain 63rd of 13815%
    1.52118th of 138 Points per drive 101st of 1381.81
    37%36th of 138 Plays that work against the defense 97th of 13844%
    34%42nd of 138 Third downs allowed 79th of 13839%
    3%127th of 138 Sacks by the defense, per dropback 51st of 1387%
    7%100th of 138 Sacks allowed, per dropback 90th of 1387%
    16%68th of 138 Havoc plays by the defense 103rd of 13813%
    1.6244th of 138 Points per drive allowed 59th of 1381.84

    Each key sets one team's offense against the other's defense in the same situation, using Buffalo's 6 games and Western Michigan's 5 so far, garbage time left out. The bold number in the comparison is the better one, and the small number beside it is that team's rank among FBS teams. Havoc plays are losses, sacks, passes broken up and takeaways. The win chance comes from this site's power index, and it is not a betting line.

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