nextsnap
About and data sources Suggest an improvement
Has the ball Liberty 0
Loading Week 3, 2026
Has the ball Ball State 0
Field position LIBERTY BALL STATE 10 10 20 20 30 30 40 40 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10

 

The situation

Waiting for the first snap

Once the game starts, this shows what each side needs and what it is trying to do on this snap.

Game flow

Points each offense has added, snap by snap. The line sits on the side of the team that has won more of the down-to-down battle.

Points added1st2nd3rd4thGame
Liberty0.00.00.00.00.0
Ball State0.00.00.00.00.0

This is not a win probability. It adds up how much each play changed the points a team could expect from its field position. Kicks and returns are not counted.

Plays

    Next play

    Waiting for the snap

    Run–
    Pass–
    No call yet
    Last play

    The game has not started.

    Odds come from how every team calls this situation, shifted for how this team calls its own. This game's plays are left out.

    Passing game

    Passing

    This gameSeason

    Where the ball goes

    Season numbers are the other games this year plus this one so far. Short and deep are the stat crew's labels, so a few throws have neither.

    Team stats

    Liberty Ball State

    Talking points

    This season

    10%of dropbacks end in a sack
    Offense

    Protect the quarterback

    D. Purdie has been sacked on 10% of dropbacks (13 of 130), against 5% for all teams.

    88%of throws to him work
    Offense

    Get the ball to Z. Wimbush

    Small sample

    D. Purdie to Z. Wimbush works 88% of the time (7 of 8 throws, 7 caught, 11.0 yards a throw). Everything else through the air works 39%. He gets 7% of the targets.

    7.2yards a carry
    Offense

    More carries for K. Davis

    Runs by K. Davis work 60% of the time (41 of 68, 7.2 yards a carry). Every other back combined: 50% (53 of 107).

    28%all teams 41%
    Defense

    Stopping the run on 1st and long

    Opponents' runs on 1st and long (7 or more) work 28% of the time, against 41% for all teams (20 of 71 plays).

    39%all teams 48%
    Defense

    Stopping the pass on 1st and long

    Opponents' passes on 1st and long (7 or more) work 39% of the time, against 48% for all teams (22 of 56 plays).

    All of Liberty's keys

    "Today" counts every play in this game so far and updates as it goes. "This season" leaves garbage time out. Copy puts the stat on your clipboard.

    From the season so far

    Keys to the game

    Model: Liberty 98%, by about 34
    98% LibertyBall State 2%

    What Liberty needs to do

    88%of throws to him work
    With the ball

    Get the ball to Z. Wimbush

    Small sample

    D. Purdie to Z. Wimbush works 88% of the time (7 of 8 throws, 7 caught, 11.0 yards a throw). Ball State lets passes work 48% of the time (all teams 43%).

    10%of dropbacks end in a sack
    With the ball

    Keep D. Purdie clean

    D. Purdie has been sacked on 10% of dropbacks (13 of 130), and Ball State gets a sack on 4%. All teams: 5%.

    52%Ball State allows 70%
    With the ball

    Run on 2nd and medium

    Liberty's runs on 2nd and medium work 52% of the time (11 of 21), and Ball State lets them work 70% (7 of 10). All teams: 49%.

    75%of throws to him work
    On defense

    Take away J. Smith

    K. Luster to J. Smith works 75% of the time (15 of 20 throws, 18 caught, 9.6 yards a throw). Everything else through the air works 33%.

    39%Liberty allows on 1st and long
    On defense

    Win 1st and long against the pass

    Ball State's passes on 1st and long work 34% of the time (21 of 62), and Liberty holds them to 39% (22 of 56). All teams: 48%.

    Tale of the tape

    Liberty Ball State
    49%25th of 138 Plays that work on offense 128th of 13836%
    53%10th of 138 Runs that work 136th of 13833%
    42%73rd of 138 Passes that work 109th of 13838%
    40%69th of 138 Third downs converted 117th of 13832%
    17%5th of 138 Big plays on offense 111th of 13810%
    10%13th of 138 Runs stuffed for no gain 115th of 13821%
    2.3460th of 138 Points per drive 107th of 1381.69
    34%11th of 138 Plays that work against the defense 109th of 13845%
    28%6th of 138 Third downs allowed 101st of 13841%
    5%97th of 138 Sacks by the defense, per dropback 121st of 1384%
    10%129th of 138 Sacks allowed, per dropback 49th of 1385%
    18%25th of 138 Havoc plays by the defense 89th of 13814%
    1.2720th of 138 Points per drive allowed 134th of 1383.00

    Each key sets one team's offense against the other's defense in the same situation, using Liberty's 6 games and Ball State's 6 so far, garbage time left out. The bold number in the comparison is the better one, and the small number beside it is that team's rank among FBS teams. Havoc plays are losses, sacks, passes broken up and takeaways. The win chance comes from this site's power index, and it is not a betting line.