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Has the ball Navy 0
Loading Week 12, 2026
Has the ball Memphis 0
Field position NAVY MEMPHIS 10 10 20 20 30 30 40 40 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10

 

The situation

Waiting for the first snap

Once the game starts, this shows what each side needs and what it is trying to do on this snap.

Game flow

Points each offense has added, snap by snap. The line sits on the side of the team that has won more of the down-to-down battle.

Points added1st2nd3rd4thGame
Navy0.00.00.00.00.0
Memphis0.00.00.00.00.0

This is not a win probability. It adds up how much each play changed the points a team could expect from its field position. Kicks and returns are not counted.

Before kickoff

Keys to the game

Model: Memphis 54%, by about 1
46% NavyMemphis 54%

What Navy needs to do

36%of throws to him work
With the ball

Get the ball to C. Robinson

Small sample

J. Gutierrez to C. Robinson works 36% of the time (4 of 11 throws, 5 caught, 3.2 yards a throw). Memphis lets passes work 36% of the time (all teams 43%).

14%of dropbacks end in a sack
With the ball

Keep J. Gutierrez clean

J. Gutierrez has been sacked on 14% of dropbacks (9 of 65), and Memphis gets a sack on 8%. All teams: 5%.

27%Memphis allows 19%
With the ball

Memphis takes away the pass on 2nd and long

Navy's passes on 2nd and long work 27% of the time (4 of 15), and Memphis holds them to 19% (6 of 32). All teams: 39%.

78%of throws to him work
On defense

Take away J. Davis

Small sample

M. Stokes to J. Davis works 78% of the time (7 of 9 throws, 7 caught, 14.7 yards a throw). Everything else through the air works 50%.

50%Navy allows on 2nd and long
On defense

Shore up the pass defense on 2nd and long

Memphis's passes on 2nd and long work 70% of the time (14 of 20), and Navy has let them work 50% (11 of 22). All teams: 39%.

Tale of the tape

Navy Memphis
46%45th of 138 Plays that work on offense 14th of 13851%
53%9th of 138 Runs that work 26th of 13849%
28%136th of 138 Passes that work 15th of 13852%
35%109th of 138 Third downs converted 20th of 13849%
15%28th of 138 Big plays on offense 4th of 13818%
10%12th of 138 Runs stuffed for no gain 48th of 13814%
2.0087th of 138 Points per drive 35th of 1382.73
40%57th of 138 Plays that work against the defense 67th of 13841%
47%123rd of 138 Third downs allowed 75th of 13838%
10%15th of 138 Sacks by the defense, per dropback 33rd of 1388%
14%136th of 138 Sacks allowed, per dropback 73rd of 1385%
13%104th of 138 Havoc plays by the defense 79th of 13815%
1.8562nd of 138 Points per drive allowed 76th of 1381.96

Each key sets one team's offense against the other's defense in the same situation, using Navy's 4 games and Memphis's 5 so far, garbage time left out. The bold number in the comparison is the better one, and the small number beside it is that team's rank among FBS teams. Havoc plays are losses, sacks, passes broken up and takeaways. The win chance comes from this site's power index, and it is not a betting line.

Plays

    Next play

    Waiting for the snap

    Run–
    Pass–
    No call yet
    Last play

    The game has not started.

    Odds come from how every team calls this situation, shifted for how this team calls its own. This game's plays are left out.

    Passing game

    Passing

    This gameSeason

    Where the ball goes

    Season numbers are the other games this year plus this one so far. Short and deep are the stat crew's labels, so a few throws have neither.

    Team stats

    Navy Memphis

    Talking points

    This season

    14%of dropbacks end in a sack
    Offense

    Protect the quarterback

    J. Gutierrez has been sacked on 14% of dropbacks (9 of 65), against 5% for all teams.

    19%of passing downs work
    Offense

    Get out of passing downs

    Navy's plays work only 19% of the time on passing downs (second and 8 or more, third and 5 or more), against 30% for all teams. That ranks 138th of 138.

    39%of middle eight plays work
    Offense

    Own the middle eight

    In the last four minutes of the first half and the first four of the second, Navy's plays work 39% of the time, against 43% for all teams. That ranks 105th of 138.

    57%of middle eight plays work against it
    Defense

    Hold the middle eight

    In the last four minutes of the first half and the first four of the second, opponents' plays work 57% of the time against Navy, against 43% for all teams. That ranks 135th of 138.

    88%of third and short converted against them
    Defense

    Get off the field on third and short

    Opponents convert third and short 88% of the time (14 of 16), against about 62% for all teams.

    All of Navy's keys

    "Today" counts every play in this game so far and updates as it goes. "This season" leaves garbage time out. Copy puts the stat on your clipboard.

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