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Has the ball Fresno State 0
Loading Week 4, 2026
Has the ball Rice 0
Field position FRESNO STATE RICE 10 10 20 20 30 30 40 40 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10

 

The situation

Waiting for the first snap

Once the game starts, this shows what each side needs and what it is trying to do on this snap.

Game flow

Points each offense has added, snap by snap. The line sits on the side of the team that has won more of the down-to-down battle.

Points added1st2nd3rd4thGame
Fresno State0.00.00.00.00.0
Rice0.00.00.00.00.0

This is not a win probability. It adds up how much each play changed the points a team could expect from its field position. Kicks and returns are not counted.

Plays

    Next play

    Waiting for the snap

    Run–
    Pass–
    No call yet
    Last play

    The game has not started.

    Odds come from how every team calls this situation, shifted for how this team calls its own. This game's plays are left out.

    Passing game

    Passing

    This gameSeason

    Where the ball goes

    Season numbers are the other games this year plus this one so far. Short and deep are the stat crew's labels, so a few throws have neither.

    Team stats

    Fresno State Rice

    Talking points

    This season

    38%of short yardage runs converted
    Offense

    Convert short yardage

    Small sample

    Fresno State converts 38% of its runs on third or fourth and 2 or less, against 71% for all teams. That ranks 128th of 130.

    59%of throws to him work
    Offense

    Get the ball to J. Freeman

    J. Mandal to J. Freeman works 59% of the time (20 of 34 throws, 25 caught, 9.5 yards a throw). Everything else through the air works 42%. He gets 28% of the targets.

    50%passes that work
    Offense

    Throw it more on 2nd & 4-6

    On 2nd & 4-6 they run 58% of the time, but runs work 18% (2 of 11) and passes work 50% (4 of 8).

    30%all teams 39%
    Defense

    Stopping the pass on 2nd and long

    Opponents' passes on 2nd and long (7 or more) work 30% of the time, against 39% for all teams (10 of 33 plays).

    58%all teams 69%
    Defense

    Stopping the run on 3rd and short

    Small sample

    Opponents' runs on 3rd and short (1-3 yards) work 58% of the time, against 69% for all teams (7 of 12 plays).

    All of Fresno State's keys

    "Today" counts every play in this game so far and updates as it goes. "This season" leaves garbage time out. Copy puts the stat on your clipboard.

    From the season so far

    Keys to the game

    Model: Fresno State 85%, by about 14
    85% Fresno StateRice 15%

    What Fresno State needs to do

    36%Rice allows 38%
    With the ball

    Rice takes away the run on 2nd and short

    Fresno State's runs on 2nd and short work 36% of the time (4 of 11), and Rice holds them to 38% (3 of 8). All teams: 68%.

    3.3yards a carry
    With the ball

    More carries for J. Gillick

    Runs by J. Gillick work 42% of the time (8 of 19, 3.3 yards a carry). Rice lets runs work 46% of the time (all teams 45%).

    44%Rice allows 80%
    With the ball

    Throw on 3rd and medium

    Fresno State's passes on 3rd and medium work 44% of the time (7 of 16), and Rice lets them work 80% (8 of 10). All teams: 42%.

    50%of throws to him work
    On defense

    Take away J. Clark

    Small sample

    J. Brown to J. Clark works 50% of the time (7 of 14 throws, 10 caught, 6.9 yards a throw). Everything else through the air works 25%.

    10%of Rice dropbacks end in a sack
    On defense

    Get to the quarterback

    Rice's quarterback has been sacked on 10% of dropbacks (7 of 71). Fresno State gets a sack on 9%. All teams: 5%.

    Tale of the tape

    Fresno State Rice
    41%102nd of 137 Plays that work on offense 88th of 13742%
    35%125th of 137 Runs that work 54th of 13747%
    47%38th of 137 Passes that work 132nd of 13730%
    39%86th of 137 Third downs converted 110th of 13734%
    12%69th of 137 Big plays on offense 74th of 13712%
    23%126th of 137 Runs stuffed for no gain 55th of 13714%
    2.2469th of 137 Points per drive 100th of 1371.82
    40%62nd of 137 Plays that work against the defense 83rd of 13743%
    31%22nd of 137 Third downs allowed 115th of 13744%
    9%21st of 137 Sacks by the defense, per dropback 95th of 1375%
    3%22nd of 137 Sacks allowed, per dropback 125th of 13710%
    17%43rd of 137 Havoc plays by the defense 104th of 13713%
    1.2019th of 137 Points per drive allowed 106th of 1372.30

    Each key sets one team's offense against the other's defense in the same situation, using Fresno State's 5 games and Rice's 5 so far, garbage time left out. The bold number in the comparison is the better one, and the small number beside it is that team's rank among FBS teams. Havoc plays are losses, sacks, passes broken up and takeaways. The win chance comes from this site's power index, and it is not a betting line.

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