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Has the ball California 0
Loading Week 12, 2026
Has the ball Stanford 0
Field position CALIFORNIA STANFORD 10 10 20 20 30 30 40 40 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10

 

The situation

Waiting for the first snap

Once the game starts, this shows what each side needs and what it is trying to do on this snap.

Game flow

Points each offense has added, snap by snap. The line sits on the side of the team that has won more of the down-to-down battle.

Points added1st2nd3rd4thGame
California0.00.00.00.00.0
Stanford0.00.00.00.00.0

This is not a win probability. It adds up how much each play changed the points a team could expect from its field position. Kicks and returns are not counted.

Before kickoff

Keys to the game

Model: California 73%, by about 8
73% CaliforniaStanford 27%

What California needs to do

53%of throws to him work
With the ball

Get the ball to A. Mohammed

J. Sagapolutele to A. Mohammed works 53% of the time (10 of 19 throws, 17 caught, 8.8 yards a throw). Stanford lets passes work 47% of the time (all teams 43%).

38%Stanford allows 75%
With the ball

Stanford takes away the run on 2nd and short

California's runs on 2nd and short work 38% of the time (3 of 8), and Stanford holds them to 75% (6 of 8). All teams: 68%.

67%Stanford allows 50%
With the ball

Throw on 2nd and medium

California's passes on 2nd and medium work 67% of the time (6 of 9), and Stanford lets them work 50% (5 of 10). All teams: 51%.

58%of throws to him work
On defense

Take away N. Brown

Small sample

D. Warren to N. Brown works 58% of the time (7 of 12 throws, 8 caught, 10.4 yards a throw). Everything else through the air works 35%.

92%California allows on 3rd and short
On defense

Shore up the run defense on 3rd and short

Stanford's runs on 3rd and short work 78% of the time (7 of 9), and California has let them work 92% (11 of 12). All teams: 69%.

Tale of the tape

California Stanford
38%121st of 137 Plays that work on offense 115th of 13739%
37%119th of 137 Runs that work 91st of 13742%
38%109th of 137 Passes that work 114th of 13737%
35%105th of 137 Third downs converted 110th of 13734%
9%121st of 137 Big plays on offense 126th of 1379%
19%112th of 137 Runs stuffed for no gain 122nd of 13722%
1.9096th of 137 Points per drive 106th of 1371.72
36%30th of 137 Plays that work against the defense 131st of 13749%
39%82nd of 137 Third downs allowed 132nd of 13751%
6%66th of 137 Sacks by the defense, per dropback 127th of 1373%
4%46th of 137 Sacks allowed, per dropback 60th of 1375%
13%111th of 137 Havoc plays by the defense 111th of 13713%
2.24101st of 137 Points per drive allowed 128th of 1372.71

Each key sets one team's offense against the other's defense in the same situation, using California's 5 games and Stanford's 5 so far, garbage time left out. The bold number in the comparison is the better one, and the small number beside it is that team's rank among FBS teams. Havoc plays are losses, sacks, passes broken up and takeaways. The win chance comes from this site's power index, and it is not a betting line.

Plays

    Next play

    Waiting for the snap

    Run–
    Pass–
    No call yet
    Last play

    The game has not started.

    Odds come from how every team calls this situation, shifted for how this team calls its own. This game's plays are left out.

    Passing game

    Passing

    This gameSeason

    Where the ball goes

    Season numbers are the other games this year plus this one so far. Short and deep are the stat crew's labels, so a few throws have neither.

    Team stats

    California Stanford

    Talking points

    This season

    43%of runs gain 4 or more
    Offense

    Give the backs a crease

    Only 43% of California's runs gain 4 yards or more, against 49% for all teams. That ranks 120th of 137.

    36%of middle eight plays work
    Offense

    Own the middle eight

    In the last four minutes of the first half and the first four of the second, California's plays work 36% of the time, against 43% for all teams. That ranks 116th of 137.

    53%of throws to him work
    Offense

    Get the ball to A. Mohammed

    J. Sagapolutele to A. Mohammed works 53% of the time (10 of 19 throws, 17 caught, 8.8 yards a throw). Everything else through the air works 36%. He gets 10% of the targets.

    11%of opponents' runs stuffed
    Defense

    Win more first contact

    California stuffs only 11% of opponents' runs for no gain, against 16% for all teams. That ranks 127th of 137.

    13%of snaps end in a havoc play
    Defense

    Make more plays behind the line

    California wrecks 13% of opponents' snaps with a loss, a break-up or a takeaway, against 15% for all teams. That ranks 111th of 137.

    All of California's keys

    "Today" counts every play in this game so far and updates as it goes. "This season" leaves garbage time out. Copy puts the stat on your clipboard.

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