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About and data sources Suggest an improvement
Has the ball UConn 0
Loading Week 10, 2026
Has the ball North Carolina 0
Field position UCONN NORTH CAROLINA 10 10 20 20 30 30 40 40 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10

 

The situation

Waiting for the first snap

Once the game starts, this shows what each side needs and what it is trying to do on this snap.

Game flow

Points each offense has added, snap by snap. The line sits on the side of the team that has won more of the down-to-down battle.

Points added1st2nd3rd4thGame
UConn0.00.00.00.00.0
North Carolina0.00.00.00.00.0

This is not a win probability. It adds up how much each play changed the points a team could expect from its field position. Kicks and returns are not counted.

Before kickoff

Keys to the game

Model: UConn 51%
51% UConnNorth Carolina 49%

What UConn needs to do

7.6yards a carry
With the ball

More carries for C. Bowers

Runs by C. Bowers work 55% of the time (24 of 44, 7.6 yards a carry). North Carolina lets runs work 48% of the time (all teams 45%).

8%of dropbacks end in a sack
With the ball

Keep K. Osborne clean

K. Osborne has been sacked on 8% of dropbacks (12 of 142), and North Carolina gets a sack on 8%. All teams: 5%.

35%North Carolina allows 29%
With the ball

Throw on 3rd and long

UConn's passes on 3rd and long work 35% of the time (9 of 26), and North Carolina lets them work 29% (4 of 14). All teams: 26%.

62%of throws to him work
On defense

Take away J. Shipp

B. Edwards Jr. to J. Shipp works 62% of the time (15 of 24 throws, 19 caught, 10.8 yards a throw). Everything else through the air works 38%.

32%UConn allows on 2nd and long
On defense

Force North Carolina into 2nd and long

North Carolina's passes on 2nd and long work 33% of the time (8 of 24), and UConn holds them to 32% (13 of 41). All teams: 39%.

Tale of the tape

UConn North Carolina
43%77th of 137 Plays that work on offense 60th of 13744%
45%67th of 137 Runs that work 66th of 13746%
42%86th of 137 Passes that work 71st of 13743%
42%62nd of 137 Third downs converted 95th of 13737%
13%55th of 137 Big plays on offense 32nd of 13714%
16%82nd of 137 Runs stuffed for no gain 72nd of 13715%
2.4951st of 137 Points per drive 87th of 1372.00
43%86th of 137 Plays that work against the defense 108th of 13745%
40%88th of 137 Third downs allowed 102nd of 13741%
4%118th of 137 Sacks by the defense, per dropback 30th of 1378%
8%112th of 137 Sacks allowed, per dropback 85th of 1376%
16%71st of 137 Havoc plays by the defense 113th of 13713%
1.8965th of 137 Points per drive allowed 82nd of 1372.00

Each key sets one team's offense against the other's defense in the same situation, using UConn's 5 games and North Carolina's 4 so far, garbage time left out. The bold number in the comparison is the better one, and the small number beside it is that team's rank among FBS teams. Havoc plays are losses, sacks, passes broken up and takeaways. The win chance comes from this site's power index, and it is not a betting line.

Plays

    Next play

    Waiting for the snap

    Run–
    Pass–
    No call yet
    Last play

    The game has not started.

    Odds come from how every team calls this situation, shifted for how this team calls its own. This game's plays are left out.

    Passing game

    Passing

    This gameSeason

    Where the ball goes

    Season numbers are the other games this year plus this one so far. Short and deep are the stat crew's labels, so a few throws have neither.

    Team stats

    UConn North Carolina

    Talking points

    This season

    8.8yards to go on an average third down
    Offense

    Win first down to shorten third

    Third downs average 8.8 yards to go, against 7.0 for all teams. First-down plays work 43% of the time (53 of 123).

    7.6yards a carry
    Offense

    More carries for C. Bowers

    Runs by C. Bowers work 55% of the time (24 of 44, 7.6 yards a carry). Every other back combined: 34% (19 of 56).

    8%of dropbacks end in a sack
    Offense

    Protect the quarterback

    K. Osborne has been sacked on 8% of dropbacks (12 of 142), against 5% for all teams.

    50%of red zone plays work against it
    Defense

    Tighten up in the red zone

    Inside the 20, opponents' plays work 50% of the time against UConn, against 43% for all teams. That ranks 99th of 126.

    29%all teams 41%
    Defense

    Stopping the run on 1st and long

    Opponents' runs on 1st and long (7 or more) work 29% of the time, against 41% for all teams (16 of 56 plays).

    All of UConn's keys

    "Today" counts every play in this game so far and updates as it goes. "This season" leaves garbage time out. Copy puts the stat on your clipboard.

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