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About and data sources Suggest an improvement
Has the ball North Carolina 0
Loading Week 9, 2026
Has the ball Miami 0
Field position NORTH CAROLINA MIAMI 10 10 20 20 30 30 40 40 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10

 

The situation

Waiting for the first snap

Once the game starts, this shows what each side needs and what it is trying to do on this snap.

Game flow

Points each offense has added, snap by snap. The line sits on the side of the team that has won more of the down-to-down battle.

Points added1st2nd3rd4thGame
North Carolina0.00.00.00.00.0
Miami0.00.00.00.00.0

This is not a win probability. It adds up how much each play changed the points a team could expect from its field position. Kicks and returns are not counted.

Before kickoff

Keys to the game

Model: Miami 93%, by about 23
7% North CarolinaMiami 93%

What North Carolina needs to do

62%of throws to him work
With the ball

Get the ball to J. Shipp

B. Edwards Jr. to J. Shipp works 62% of the time (15 of 24 throws, 19 caught, 10.8 yards a throw). Miami lets passes work 40% of the time (all teams 43%).

6%of dropbacks end in a sack
With the ball

Keep B. Edwards Jr. clean

B. Edwards Jr. has been sacked on 6% of dropbacks (7 of 109), and Miami gets a sack on 8%. All teams: 5%.

43%Miami allows 26%
With the ball

Miami takes away the run on 1st and long

North Carolina's runs on 1st and long work 43% of the time (21 of 49), and Miami holds them to 26% (9 of 34). All teams: 41%.

77%of throws to him work
On defense

Take away D. Upshaw

Small sample

D. Mensah to D. Upshaw works 77% of the time (10 of 13 throws, 12 caught, 9.6 yards a throw). Everything else through the air works 60%.

62%North Carolina allows on 2nd and medium
On defense

Shore up the run defense on 2nd and medium

Miami's runs on 2nd and medium work 73% of the time (11 of 15), and North Carolina has let them work 62% (5 of 8). All teams: 49%.

Tale of the tape

North Carolina Miami
44%59th of 138 Plays that work on offense 1st of 13858%
46%66th of 138 Runs that work 6th of 13855%
43%69th of 138 Passes that work 1st of 13861%
37%95th of 138 Third downs converted 13th of 13851%
14%32nd of 138 Big plays on offense 19th of 13815%
15%72nd of 138 Runs stuffed for no gain 3rd of 1388%
2.0087th of 138 Points per drive 1st of 1383.80
45%109th of 138 Plays that work against the defense 38th of 13837%
41%103rd of 138 Third downs allowed 34th of 13833%
8%31st of 138 Sacks by the defense, per dropback 33rd of 1388%
6%86th of 138 Sacks allowed, per dropback 45th of 1384%
13%113th of 138 Havoc plays by the defense 77th of 13815%
2.0082nd of 138 Points per drive allowed 10th of 1381.05

Each key sets one team's offense against the other's defense in the same situation, using North Carolina's 4 games and Miami's 5 so far, garbage time left out. The bold number in the comparison is the better one, and the small number beside it is that team's rank among FBS teams. Havoc plays are losses, sacks, passes broken up and takeaways. The win chance comes from this site's power index, and it is not a betting line.

Plays

    Next play

    Waiting for the snap

    Run–
    Pass–
    No call yet
    Last play

    The game has not started.

    Odds come from how every team calls this situation, shifted for how this team calls its own. This game's plays are left out.

    Passing game

    Passing

    This gameSeason

    Where the ball goes

    Season numbers are the other games this year plus this one so far. Short and deep are the stat crew's labels, so a few throws have neither.

    Team stats

    North Carolina Miami

    Talking points

    This season

    62%of throws to him work
    Offense

    Get the ball to J. Shipp

    B. Edwards Jr. to J. Shipp works 62% of the time (15 of 24 throws, 19 caught, 10.8 yards a throw). Everything else through the air works 38%. He gets 24% of the targets.

    35%of red zone plays work
    Offense

    Finish in the red zone

    Inside the 20, North Carolina's plays work 35% of the time, against 43% for all teams. That ranks 105th of 133.

    70%quarterback runs that work
    Offense

    B. Edwards Jr.'s legs are the run game

    B. Edwards Jr.'s runs work 70% of the time (7 of 10). Handoffs work 43% (36 of 84).

    9%of opponents' runs stuffed
    Defense

    Win more first contact

    North Carolina stuffs only 9% of opponents' runs for no gain, against 16% for all teams. That ranks 135th of 138.

    13%of snaps end in a havoc play
    Defense

    Make more plays behind the line

    North Carolina wrecks 13% of opponents' snaps with a loss, a break-up or a takeaway, against 15% for all teams. That ranks 113th of 138.

    All of North Carolina's keys

    "Today" counts every play in this game so far and updates as it goes. "This season" leaves garbage time out. Copy puts the stat on your clipboard.

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