nextsnap
About and data sources Suggest an improvement
Has the ball SMU 0
Loading Week 8, 2026
Has the ball California 0
Field position SMU CALIFORNIA 10 10 20 20 30 30 40 40 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10

 

The situation

Waiting for the first snap

Once the game starts, this shows what each side needs and what it is trying to do on this snap.

Game flow

Points each offense has added, snap by snap. The line sits on the side of the team that has won more of the down-to-down battle.

Points added1st2nd3rd4thGame
SMU0.00.00.00.00.0
California0.00.00.00.00.0

This is not a win probability. It adds up how much each play changed the points a team could expect from its field position. Kicks and returns are not counted.

Before kickoff

Keys to the game

Model: SMU 90%, by about 18
90% SMUCalifornia 10%

What SMU needs to do

71%of throws to him work
With the ball

Get the ball to J. Cooper

K. Jennings to J. Cooper works 71% of the time (17 of 24 throws, 19 caught, 12.6 yards a throw). California lets passes work 32% of the time (all teams 43%).

71%California allows 92%
With the ball

Run on 3rd and short

SMU's runs on 3rd and short work 71% of the time (10 of 14), and California lets them work 92% (11 of 12). All teams: 69%.

47%California allows 36%
With the ball

California takes away the run on 2nd and medium

SMU's runs on 2nd and medium work 47% of the time (7 of 15), and California holds them to 36% (4 of 11). All teams: 50%.

33%SMU allows on 2nd and short
On defense

Win 2nd and short against the run

California's runs on 2nd and short work 38% of the time (3 of 8), and SMU holds them to 33% (5 of 15). All teams: 68%.

53%of throws to him work
On defense

Take away A. Mohammed

J. Sagapolutele to A. Mohammed works 53% of the time (10 of 19 throws, 17 caught, 8.8 yards a throw). Everything else through the air works 36%.

Tale of the tape

SMU California
50%18th of 137 Plays that work on offense 121st of 13738%
45%69th of 137 Runs that work 119th of 13737%
54%9th of 137 Passes that work 109th of 13738%
53%10th of 137 Third downs converted 105th of 13735%
14%48th of 137 Big plays on offense 121st of 1379%
19%109th of 137 Runs stuffed for no gain 112th of 13719%
2.7436th of 137 Points per drive 96th of 1371.90
38%38th of 137 Plays that work against the defense 30th of 13736%
29%9th of 137 Third downs allowed 82nd of 13739%
11%11th of 137 Sacks by the defense, per dropback 66th of 1376%
4%37th of 137 Sacks allowed, per dropback 46th of 1374%
19%21st of 137 Havoc plays by the defense 111th of 13713%
1.9068th of 137 Points per drive allowed 101st of 1372.24

Each key sets one team's offense against the other's defense in the same situation, using SMU's 5 games and California's 5 so far, garbage time left out. The bold number in the comparison is the better one, and the small number beside it is that team's rank among FBS teams. Havoc plays are losses, sacks, passes broken up and takeaways. The win chance comes from this site's power index, and it is not a betting line.

Plays

    Next play

    Waiting for the snap

    Run–
    Pass–
    No call yet
    Last play

    The game has not started.

    Odds come from how every team calls this situation, shifted for how this team calls its own. This game's plays are left out.

    Passing game

    Passing

    This gameSeason

    Where the ball goes

    Season numbers are the other games this year plus this one so far. Short and deep are the stat crew's labels, so a few throws have neither.

    Team stats

    SMU California

    Talking points

    This season

    61%passes that work
    Offense

    Throw it more on 1st & 7+

    On 1st & 7+ they run 51% of the time, but runs work 39% (28 of 72) and passes work 61% (42 of 69).

    43%of runs gain 4 or more
    Offense

    Give the backs a crease

    Only 43% of SMU's runs gain 4 yards or more, against 49% for all teams. That ranks 119th of 137.

    71%of throws to him work
    Offense

    Get the ball to J. Cooper

    K. Jennings to J. Cooper works 71% of the time (17 of 24 throws, 19 caught, 12.6 yards a throw). Everything else through the air works 51%. He gets 17% of the targets.

    33%all teams 68%
    Defense

    Stopping the run on 2nd and short

    Opponents' runs on 2nd and short (1-3 yards) work 33% of the time, against 68% for all teams (5 of 15 plays).

    26%all teams 39%
    Defense

    Stopping the pass on 2nd and long

    Opponents' passes on 2nd and long (7 or more) work 26% of the time, against 39% for all teams (10 of 39 plays).

    All of SMU's keys

    "Today" counts every play in this game so far and updates as it goes. "This season" leaves garbage time out. Copy puts the stat on your clipboard.

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