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About and data sources Suggest an improvement
Has the ball Miami 0
Loading Week 7, 2026
Has the ball Florida State 0
Field position MIAMI FLORIDA STATE 10 10 20 20 30 30 40 40 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10

 

The situation

Waiting for the first snap

Once the game starts, this shows what each side needs and what it is trying to do on this snap.

Game flow

Points each offense has added, snap by snap. The line sits on the side of the team that has won more of the down-to-down battle.

Points added1st2nd3rd4thGame
Miami0.00.00.00.00.0
Florida State0.00.00.00.00.0

This is not a win probability. It adds up how much each play changed the points a team could expect from its field position. Kicks and returns are not counted.

Before kickoff

Keys to the game

Model: Miami 94%, by about 24
94% MiamiFlorida State 6%

What Miami needs to do

77%of throws to him work
With the ball

Get the ball to D. Upshaw

Small sample

D. Mensah to D. Upshaw works 77% of the time (10 of 13 throws, 12 caught, 9.6 yards a throw). Florida State lets passes work 43% of the time (all teams 43%).

75%Florida State allows 62%
With the ball

Throw on 2nd and medium

Miami's passes on 2nd and medium work 75% of the time (12 of 16), and Florida State lets them work 62% (5 of 8). All teams: 51%.

33%Florida State allows 17%
With the ball

Florida State takes away the run on 2nd and long

Miami's runs on 2nd and long work 33% of the time (3 of 9), and Florida State holds them to 17% (4 of 24). All teams: 31%.

56%of throws to him work
On defense

Take away M. Danzy

A. Daniels to M. Danzy works 56% of the time (9 of 16 throws, 15 caught, 15.2 yards a throw). Everything else through the air works 40%.

8%of Florida State dropbacks end in a sack
On defense

Get to the quarterback

Florida State's quarterback has been sacked on 8% of dropbacks (10 of 125). Miami gets a sack on 8%. All teams: 5%.

Tale of the tape

Miami Florida State
58%1st of 138 Plays that work on offense 49th of 13845%
55%6th of 138 Runs that work 43rd of 13848%
61%1st of 138 Passes that work 76th of 13842%
51%13th of 138 Third downs converted 44th of 13844%
15%19th of 138 Big plays on offense 8th of 13817%
8%3rd of 138 Runs stuffed for no gain 28th of 13812%
3.801st of 138 Points per drive 11th of 1383.18
37%38th of 138 Plays that work against the defense 95th of 13843%
33%34th of 138 Third downs allowed 93rd of 13840%
8%33rd of 138 Sacks by the defense, per dropback 72nd of 1386%
4%45th of 138 Sacks allowed, per dropback 108th of 1388%
15%77th of 138 Havoc plays by the defense 83rd of 13814%
1.0510th of 138 Points per drive allowed 94th of 1382.12

Each key sets one team's offense against the other's defense in the same situation, using Miami's 5 games and Florida State's 5 so far, garbage time left out. The bold number in the comparison is the better one, and the small number beside it is that team's rank among FBS teams. Havoc plays are losses, sacks, passes broken up and takeaways. The win chance comes from this site's power index, and it is not a betting line.

Plays

    Next play

    Waiting for the snap

    Run–
    Pass–
    No call yet
    Last play

    The game has not started.

    Odds come from how every team calls this situation, shifted for how this team calls its own. This game's plays are left out.

    Passing game

    Passing

    This gameSeason

    Where the ball goes

    Season numbers are the other games this year plus this one so far. Short and deep are the stat crew's labels, so a few throws have neither.

    Team stats

    Miami Florida State

    Talking points

    This season

    68%passes that work
    Offense

    Throw it more on 1st & 7+

    On 1st & 7+ they run 57% of the time, but runs work 52% (32 of 62) and passes work 68% (32 of 47).

    77%of throws to him work
    Offense

    Get the ball to D. Upshaw

    Small sample

    D. Mensah to D. Upshaw works 77% of the time (10 of 13 throws, 12 caught, 9.6 yards a throw). Everything else through the air works 60%. He gets 11% of the targets.

    6 of 7third and fourth downs converted
    Offense

    M. Toney on third down

    Small sample

    On third and fourth down, D. Mensah to M. Toney has moved the chains 6 of 7 times (86%).

    26%all teams 41%
    Defense

    Stopping the run on 1st and long

    Opponents' runs on 1st and long (7 or more) work 26% of the time, against 41% for all teams (9 of 34 plays).

    31%all teams 51%
    Defense

    Stopping the pass on 2nd and medium

    Small sample

    Opponents' passes on 2nd and medium (4-6) work 31% of the time, against 51% for all teams (4 of 13 plays).

    All of Miami's keys

    "Today" counts every play in this game so far and updates as it goes. "This season" leaves garbage time out. Copy puts the stat on your clipboard.

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