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About and data sources Suggest an improvement
Has the ball BYU 0
Loading Week 13, 2026
Has the ball Cincinnati 0
Field position BYU CINCINNATI 10 10 20 20 30 30 40 40 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10

 

The situation

Waiting for the first snap

Once the game starts, this shows what each side needs and what it is trying to do on this snap.

Game flow

Points each offense has added, snap by snap. The line sits on the side of the team that has won more of the down-to-down battle.

Points added1st2nd3rd4thGame
BYU0.00.00.00.00.0
Cincinnati0.00.00.00.00.0

This is not a win probability. It adds up how much each play changed the points a team could expect from its field position. Kicks and returns are not counted.

Before kickoff

Keys to the game

Model: BYU 97%, by about 27
97% BYUCincinnati 3%

What BYU needs to do

5.2yards a carry
With the ball

More carries for P. Rex

Runs by P. Rex work 65% of the time (11 of 17, 5.2 yards a carry). Cincinnati lets runs work 51% of the time (all teams 45%).

80%Cincinnati allows 62%
With the ball

Run on 2nd and medium

BYU's runs on 2nd and medium work 80% of the time (8 of 10), and Cincinnati lets them work 62% (8 of 13). All teams: 50%.

58%Cincinnati allows 54%
With the ball

Cincinnati takes away the run on 2nd and short

BYU's runs on 2nd and short work 58% of the time (7 of 12), and Cincinnati holds them to 54% (7 of 13). All teams: 68%.

64%of throws to him work
On defense

Take away G. Grover

Small sample

J. French IV to G. Grover works 64% of the time (7 of 11 throws, 8 caught, 8.0 yards a throw). Everything else through the air works 46%.

27%BYU allows on 1st and long
On defense

Win 1st and long against the run

Cincinnati's runs on 1st and long work 35% of the time (23 of 66), and BYU holds them to 27% (9 of 33). All teams: 41%.

Tale of the tape

BYU Cincinnati
53%6th of 137 Plays that work on offense 48th of 13745%
58%3rd of 137 Runs that work 81st of 13743%
47%38th of 137 Passes that work 33rd of 13748%
56%5th of 137 Third downs converted 26th of 13747%
15%23rd of 137 Big plays on offense 36th of 13714%
9%7th of 137 Runs stuffed for no gain 39th of 13713%
3.0818th of 137 Points per drive 42nd of 1372.67
36%24th of 137 Plays that work against the defense 110th of 13745%
34%47th of 137 Third downs allowed 126th of 13748%
7%52nd of 137 Sacks by the defense, per dropback 91st of 1375%
3%30th of 137 Sacks allowed, per dropback 84th of 1376%
17%35th of 137 Havoc plays by the defense 88th of 13714%
1.1112th of 137 Points per drive allowed 67th of 1371.90

Each key sets one team's offense against the other's defense in the same situation, using BYU's 4 games and Cincinnati's 5 so far, garbage time left out. The bold number in the comparison is the better one, and the small number beside it is that team's rank among FBS teams. Havoc plays are losses, sacks, passes broken up and takeaways. The win chance comes from this site's power index, and it is not a betting line.

Plays

    Next play

    Waiting for the snap

    Run–
    Pass–
    No call yet
    Last play

    The game has not started.

    Odds come from how every team calls this situation, shifted for how this team calls its own. This game's plays are left out.

    Passing game

    Passing

    This gameSeason

    Where the ball goes

    Season numbers are the other games this year plus this one so far. Short and deep are the stat crew's labels, so a few throws have neither.

    Team stats

    BYU Cincinnati

    Talking points

    This season

    73%of throws to him work
    Offense

    Get the ball to W. Lyons

    Small sample

    B. Bachmeier to W. Lyons works 73% of the time (8 of 11 throws, 8 caught, 8.1 yards a throw). Everything else through the air works 43%. He gets 13% of the targets.

    27%of passing downs work
    Offense

    Get out of passing downs

    BYU's plays work only 27% of the time on passing downs (second and 8 or more, third and 5 or more), against 30% for all teams. That ranks 105th of 137.

    2 of 4third and fourth downs converted
    Offense

    W. Lyons on third down

    Small sample

    On third and fourth down, B. Bachmeier to W. Lyons has moved the chains 2 of 4 times (50%).

    27%all teams 41%
    Defense

    Stopping the run on 1st and long

    Opponents' runs on 1st and long (7 or more) work 27% of the time, against 41% for all teams (9 of 33 plays).

    38%all teams 49%
    Defense

    Stopping the pass on 1st and long

    Opponents' passes on 1st and long (7 or more) work 38% of the time, against 49% for all teams (16 of 42 plays).

    All of BYU's keys

    "Today" counts every play in this game so far and updates as it goes. "This season" leaves garbage time out. Copy puts the stat on your clipboard.

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