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About and data sources Suggest an improvement
Has the ball Houston 0
Loading Week 13, 2026
Has the ball Baylor 0
Field position HOUSTON BAYLOR 10 10 20 20 30 30 40 40 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10

 

The situation

Waiting for the first snap

Once the game starts, this shows what each side needs and what it is trying to do on this snap.

Game flow

Points each offense has added, snap by snap. The line sits on the side of the team that has won more of the down-to-down battle.

Points added1st2nd3rd4thGame
Houston0.00.00.00.00.0
Baylor0.00.00.00.00.0

This is not a win probability. It adds up how much each play changed the points a team could expect from its field position. Kicks and returns are not counted.

Before kickoff

Keys to the game

Model: Houston 77%, by about 10
77% HoustonBaylor 23%

What Houston needs to do

90%of throws to him work
With the ball

Get the ball to R. Sanford II

Small sample

C. Weigman to R. Sanford II works 90% of the time (9 of 10 throws, 9 caught, 11.6 yards a throw). Baylor lets passes work 35% of the time (all teams 43%).

50%Baylor allows 23%
With the ball

Throw on 3rd and long

Houston's passes on 3rd and long work 50% of the time (6 of 12), and Baylor lets them work 23% (7 of 31). All teams: 26%.

64%Baylor allows 22%
With the ball

Baylor takes away the run on 2nd and medium

Houston's runs on 2nd and medium work 64% of the time (7 of 11), and Baylor holds them to 22% (2 of 9). All teams: 50%.

56%of throws to him work
On defense

Take away J. Porter

D. Lagway to J. Porter works 56% of the time (9 of 16 throws, 9 caught, 10.8 yards a throw). Everything else through the air works 39%.

70%Houston allows on 2nd and medium
On defense

Shore up the run defense on 2nd and medium

Baylor's runs on 2nd and medium work 82% of the time (9 of 11), and Houston has let them work 70% (7 of 10). All teams: 50%.

Tale of the tape

Houston Baylor
54%4th of 137 Plays that work on offense 94th of 13742%
53%10th of 137 Runs that work 78th of 13744%
55%6th of 137 Passes that work 92nd of 13740%
63%2nd of 137 Third downs converted 53rd of 13743%
13%61st of 137 Big plays on offense 76th of 13712%
10%9th of 137 Runs stuffed for no gain 95th of 13717%
3.287th of 137 Points per drive 52nd of 1372.48
40%58th of 137 Plays that work against the defense 12th of 13733%
37%61st of 137 Third downs allowed 75th of 13738%
6%84th of 137 Sacks by the defense, per dropback 41st of 1378%
4%32nd of 137 Sacks allowed, per dropback 47th of 1374%
21%13th of 137 Havoc plays by the defense 8th of 13721%
1.4433rd of 137 Points per drive allowed 22nd of 1371.21

Each key sets one team's offense against the other's defense in the same situation, using Houston's 5 games and Baylor's 5 so far, garbage time left out. The bold number in the comparison is the better one, and the small number beside it is that team's rank among FBS teams. Havoc plays are losses, sacks, passes broken up and takeaways. The win chance comes from this site's power index, and it is not a betting line.

Plays

    Next play

    Waiting for the snap

    Run–
    Pass–
    No call yet
    Last play

    The game has not started.

    Odds come from how every team calls this situation, shifted for how this team calls its own. This game's plays are left out.

    Passing game

    Passing

    This gameSeason

    Where the ball goes

    Season numbers are the other games this year plus this one so far. Short and deep are the stat crew's labels, so a few throws have neither.

    Team stats

    Houston Baylor

    Talking points

    This season

    4.7yards a carry
    Offense

    More carries for M. Hughes

    Runs by M. Hughes work 59% of the time (39 of 66, 4.7 yards a carry). Every other back combined: 44% (28 of 64).

    90%of throws to him work
    Offense

    Get the ball to R. Sanford II

    Small sample

    C. Weigman to R. Sanford II works 90% of the time (9 of 10 throws, 9 caught, 11.6 yards a throw). Everything else through the air works 52%. He gets 7% of the targets.

    88%passes that work
    Offense

    Throw it more on 2nd & 1-3

    On 2nd & 1-3 they run 64% of the time, but runs work 64% (9 of 14) and passes work 88% (7 of 8).

    50%of red zone plays work against it
    Defense

    Tighten up in the red zone

    Inside the 20, opponents' plays work 50% of the time against Houston, against 43% for all teams. That ranks 99th of 126.

    33%of third and long converted against them
    Defense

    Get off the field on third and long

    Opponents convert third and long 33% of the time (11 of 33), against about 25% for all teams.

    All of Houston's keys

    "Today" counts every play in this game so far and updates as it goes. "This season" leaves garbage time out. Copy puts the stat on your clipboard.

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