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About and data sources Suggest an improvement
Has the ball TCU 0
Loading Week 12, 2026
Has the ball Utah 0
Field position TCU UTAH 10 10 20 20 30 30 40 40 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10

 

The situation

Waiting for the first snap

Once the game starts, this shows what each side needs and what it is trying to do on this snap.

Game flow

Points each offense has added, snap by snap. The line sits on the side of the team that has won more of the down-to-down battle.

Points added1st2nd3rd4thGame
TCU0.00.00.00.00.0
Utah0.00.00.00.00.0

This is not a win probability. It adds up how much each play changed the points a team could expect from its field position. Kicks and returns are not counted.

Before kickoff

Keys to the game

Model: Utah 87%, by about 15
13% TCUUtah 87%

What TCU needs to do

64%of throws to him work
With the ball

Get the ball to K. Ashley

J. Craig to K. Ashley works 64% of the time (18 of 28 throws, 21 caught, 10.7 yards a throw). Utah lets passes work 29% of the time (all teams 43%).

8%Utah allows 20%
With the ball

Utah takes away the run on 2nd and long

TCU's runs on 2nd and long work 8% of the time (2 of 25), and Utah holds them to 20% (4 of 20). All teams: 31%.

62%TCU allows on 2nd and medium
On defense

Shore up the run defense on 2nd and medium

Utah's runs on 2nd and medium work 100% of the time (9 of 9), and TCU has let them work 62% (5 of 8). All teams: 50%.

67%of throws to him work
On defense

Take away D. Bray

Small sample

D. Dampier to D. Bray works 67% of the time (6 of 9 throws, 9 caught, 6.3 yards a throw). Everything else through the air works 54%.

Tale of the tape

TCU Utah
42%90th of 137 Plays that work on offense 7th of 13752%
42%95th of 137 Runs that work 25th of 13749%
43%76th of 137 Passes that work 5th of 13755%
39%81st of 137 Third downs converted 17th of 13750%
11%94th of 137 Big plays on offense 42nd of 13714%
19%108th of 137 Runs stuffed for no gain 76th of 13716%
1.67108th of 137 Points per drive 4th of 1373.55
37%32nd of 137 Plays that work against the defense 5th of 13731%
33%35th of 137 Third downs allowed 12th of 13728%
7%49th of 137 Sacks by the defense, per dropback 103rd of 1375%
8%111th of 137 Sacks allowed, per dropback 12th of 1372%
16%65th of 137 Havoc plays by the defense 6th of 13722%
1.2121st of 137 Points per drive allowed 4th of 1370.79

Each key sets one team's offense against the other's defense in the same situation, using TCU's 5 games and Utah's 4 so far, garbage time left out. The bold number in the comparison is the better one, and the small number beside it is that team's rank among FBS teams. Havoc plays are losses, sacks, passes broken up and takeaways. The win chance comes from this site's power index, and it is not a betting line.

Plays

    Next play

    Waiting for the snap

    Run–
    Pass–
    No call yet
    Last play

    The game has not started.

    Odds come from how every team calls this situation, shifted for how this team calls its own. This game's plays are left out.

    Passing game

    Passing

    This gameSeason

    Where the ball goes

    Season numbers are the other games this year plus this one so far. Short and deep are the stat crew's labels, so a few throws have neither.

    Team stats

    TCU Utah

    Talking points

    This season

    22%of passing downs work
    Offense

    Get out of passing downs

    TCU's plays work only 22% of the time on passing downs (second and 8 or more, third and 5 or more), against 30% for all teams. That ranks 127th of 137.

    64%of throws to him work
    Offense

    Get the ball to K. Ashley

    J. Craig to K. Ashley works 64% of the time (18 of 28 throws, 21 caught, 10.7 yards a throw). Everything else through the air works 38%. He gets 20% of the targets.

    43%of runs gain 4 or more
    Offense

    Give the backs a crease

    Only 43% of TCU's runs gain 4 yards or more, against 49% for all teams. That ranks 118th of 137.

    33%all teams 68%
    Defense

    Stopping the run on 2nd and short

    Small sample

    Opponents' runs on 2nd and short (1-3 yards) work 33% of the time, against 68% for all teams (4 of 12 plays).

    28%all teams 41%
    Defense

    Stopping the run on 1st and long

    Opponents' runs on 1st and long (7 or more) work 28% of the time, against 41% for all teams (16 of 58 plays).

    All of TCU's keys

    "Today" counts every play in this game so far and updates as it goes. "This season" leaves garbage time out. Copy puts the stat on your clipboard.

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