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About and data sources Suggest an improvement
Has the ball Cincinnati 0
Loading Week 12, 2026
Has the ball Colorado 0
Field position CINCINNATI COLORADO 10 10 20 20 30 30 40 40 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10

 

The situation

Waiting for the first snap

Once the game starts, this shows what each side needs and what it is trying to do on this snap.

Game flow

Points each offense has added, snap by snap. The line sits on the side of the team that has won more of the down-to-down battle.

Points added1st2nd3rd4thGame
Cincinnati0.00.00.00.00.0
Colorado0.00.00.00.00.0

This is not a win probability. It adds up how much each play changed the points a team could expect from its field position. Kicks and returns are not counted.

Before kickoff

Keys to the game

Model: Cincinnati 57%, by about 2
57% CincinnatiColorado 43%

What Cincinnati needs to do

10.6yards a carry
With the ball

More carries for C. Tabb

Runs by C. Tabb work 59% of the time (17 of 29, 10.6 yards a carry). Colorado lets runs work 40% of the time (all teams 45%).

29%Colorado allows 30%
With the ball

Colorado takes away the pass on 3rd and medium

Cincinnati's passes on 3rd and medium work 29% of the time (4 of 14), and Colorado holds them to 30% (3 of 10). All teams: 42%.

42%Colorado allows 30%
With the ball

Throw on 3rd and long

Cincinnati's passes on 3rd and long work 42% of the time (5 of 12), and Colorado lets them work 30% (9 of 30). All teams: 26%.

71%of throws to him work
On defense

Take away Q. Farrakhan Jr.

Small sample

J. Lewis to Q. Farrakhan Jr. works 71% of the time (10 of 14 throws, 12 caught, 10.6 yards a throw). Everything else through the air works 40%.

7%of Colorado dropbacks end in a sack
On defense

Get to the quarterback

Colorado's quarterback has been sacked on 7% of dropbacks (11 of 153). Cincinnati gets a sack on 5%. All teams: 5%.

Tale of the tape

Cincinnati Colorado
45%48th of 137 Plays that work on offense 106th of 13740%
43%81st of 137 Runs that work 118th of 13738%
48%33rd of 137 Passes that work 70th of 13743%
47%26th of 137 Third downs converted 98th of 13736%
14%36th of 137 Big plays on offense 92nd of 13711%
13%39th of 137 Runs stuffed for no gain 68th of 13715%
2.6742nd of 137 Points per drive 118th of 1371.52
45%110th of 137 Plays that work against the defense 29th of 13736%
48%126th of 137 Third downs allowed 65th of 13737%
5%91st of 137 Sacks by the defense, per dropback 59th of 1377%
6%84th of 137 Sacks allowed, per dropback 98th of 1377%
14%88th of 137 Havoc plays by the defense 15th of 13720%
1.9067th of 137 Points per drive allowed 44th of 1371.62

Each key sets one team's offense against the other's defense in the same situation, using Cincinnati's 5 games and Colorado's 5 so far, garbage time left out. The bold number in the comparison is the better one, and the small number beside it is that team's rank among FBS teams. Havoc plays are losses, sacks, passes broken up and takeaways. The win chance comes from this site's power index, and it is not a betting line.

Plays

    Next play

    Waiting for the snap

    Run–
    Pass–
    No call yet
    Last play

    The game has not started.

    Odds come from how every team calls this situation, shifted for how this team calls its own. This game's plays are left out.

    Passing game

    Passing

    This gameSeason

    Where the ball goes

    Season numbers are the other games this year plus this one so far. Short and deep are the stat crew's labels, so a few throws have neither.

    Team stats

    Cincinnati Colorado

    Talking points

    This season

    10.6yards a carry
    Offense

    More carries for C. Tabb

    Runs by C. Tabb work 59% of the time (17 of 29, 10.6 yards a carry). Every other back combined: 33% (28 of 85).

    42%passes that work
    Offense

    Throw it more on 3rd & 7+

    On 3rd & 7+ they run 40% of the time, but runs work 0% (0 of 8) and passes work 42% (5 of 12).

    38%of middle eight plays work
    Offense

    Own the middle eight

    In the last four minutes of the first half and the first four of the second, Cincinnati's plays work 38% of the time, against 43% for all teams. That ranks 105th of 137.

    56%of runs gain 4 or more
    Defense

    Close the creases

    56% of opponents' runs gain 4 yards or more against Cincinnati, against 49% for all teams. That ranks 132nd of 137.

    38%of passing downs work against it
    Defense

    Finish passing downs

    Opponents' plays work 38% of the time on passing downs against Cincinnati (second and 8 or more, third and 5 or more), against 30% for all teams. That ranks 125th of 137.

    All of Cincinnati's keys

    "Today" counts every play in this game so far and updates as it goes. "This season" leaves garbage time out. Copy puts the stat on your clipboard.

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