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About and data sources Suggest an improvement
Has the ball Mississippi State 0
Loading Week 8, 2026
Has the ball Oklahoma 0
Field position MISSISSIPPI STATE OKLAHOMA 10 10 20 20 30 30 40 40 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10

 

The situation

Waiting for the first snap

Once the game starts, this shows what each side needs and what it is trying to do on this snap.

Game flow

Points each offense has added, snap by snap. The line sits on the side of the team that has won more of the down-to-down battle.

Points added1st2nd3rd4thGame
Mississippi State0.00.00.00.00.0
Oklahoma0.00.00.00.00.0

This is not a win probability. It adds up how much each play changed the points a team could expect from its field position. Kicks and returns are not counted.

Before kickoff

Keys to the game

Model: Mississippi State 57%, by about 2
57% Mississippi StateOklahoma 43%

What Mississippi State needs to do

67%of throws to him work
With the ball

Get the ball to A. Evans III

K. Taylor to A. Evans III works 67% of the time (32 of 48 throws, 38 caught, 11.6 yards a throw). Oklahoma lets passes work 33% of the time (all teams 43%).

8%of dropbacks end in a sack
With the ball

Keep K. Taylor clean

K. Taylor has been sacked on 8% of dropbacks (13 of 163), and Oklahoma gets a sack on 13%. All teams: 5%.

38%Oklahoma allows 23%
With the ball

Oklahoma takes away the run on 1st and long

Mississippi State's runs on 1st and long work 38% of the time (21 of 55), and Oklahoma holds them to 23% (10 of 43). All teams: 41%.

65%of throws to him work
On defense

Take away R. Beers

J. Mateer to R. Beers works 65% of the time (13 of 20 throws, 17 caught, 12.2 yards a throw). Everything else through the air works 35%.

25%Mississippi State allows on 2nd and long
On defense

Force Oklahoma into 2nd and long

Oklahoma's runs on 2nd and long work 13% of the time (2 of 15), and Mississippi State holds them to 25% (6 of 24). All teams: 31%.

Tale of the tape

Mississippi State Oklahoma
49%21st of 137 Plays that work on offense 124th of 13737%
50%17th of 137 Runs that work 133rd of 13734%
48%29th of 137 Passes that work 89th of 13740%
50%17th of 137 Third downs converted 101st of 13736%
14%47th of 137 Big plays on offense 118th of 1379%
17%87th of 137 Runs stuffed for no gain 130th of 13724%
2.7633rd of 137 Points per drive 126th of 1371.35
42%80th of 137 Plays that work against the defense 4th of 13730%
39%87th of 137 Third downs allowed 4th of 13725%
6%67th of 137 Sacks by the defense, per dropback 2nd of 13713%
8%106th of 137 Sacks allowed, per dropback 92nd of 1377%
18%27th of 137 Havoc plays by the defense 18th of 13720%
1.8965th of 137 Points per drive allowed 29th of 1371.31

Each key sets one team's offense against the other's defense in the same situation, using Mississippi State's 5 games and Oklahoma's 4 so far, garbage time left out. The bold number in the comparison is the better one, and the small number beside it is that team's rank among FBS teams. Havoc plays are losses, sacks, passes broken up and takeaways. The win chance comes from this site's power index, and it is not a betting line.

Plays

    Next play

    Waiting for the snap

    Run–
    Pass–
    No call yet
    Last play

    The game has not started.

    Odds come from how every team calls this situation, shifted for how this team calls its own. This game's plays are left out.

    Passing game

    Passing

    This gameSeason

    Where the ball goes

    Season numbers are the other games this year plus this one so far. Short and deep are the stat crew's labels, so a few throws have neither.

    Team stats

    Mississippi State Oklahoma

    Talking points

    This season

    5.5yards a carry
    Offense

    More carries for F. Bothwell

    Runs by F. Bothwell work 52% of the time (38 of 73, 5.5 yards a carry). Every other back combined: 26% (8 of 31).

    67%of throws to him work
    Offense

    Get the ball to A. Evans III

    K. Taylor to A. Evans III works 67% of the time (32 of 48 throws, 38 caught, 11.6 yards a throw). Everything else through the air works 41%. He gets 33% of the targets.

    8%of dropbacks end in a sack
    Offense

    Protect the quarterback

    K. Taylor has been sacked on 8% of dropbacks (13 of 163), against 5% for all teams.

    53%of runs gain 4 or more
    Defense

    Close the creases

    53% of opponents' runs gain 4 yards or more against Mississippi State, against 49% for all teams. That ranks 111th of 137.

    49%of middle eight plays work against it
    Defense

    Hold the middle eight

    In the last four minutes of the first half and the first four of the second, opponents' plays work 49% of the time against Mississippi State, against 43% for all teams. That ranks 110th of 137.

    All of Mississippi State's keys

    "Today" counts every play in this game so far and updates as it goes. "This season" leaves garbage time out. Copy puts the stat on your clipboard.

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