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Has the ball Mississippi State 0
Loading Week 5, 2026
Has the ball Alabama 0
Field position MISSISSIPPI STATE ALABAMA 10 10 20 20 30 30 40 40 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10

 

The situation

Waiting for the first snap

Once the game starts, this shows what each side needs and what it is trying to do on this snap.

Game flow

Points each offense has added, snap by snap. The line sits on the side of the team that has won more of the down-to-down battle.

Points added1st2nd3rd4thGame
Mississippi State0.00.00.00.00.0
Alabama0.00.00.00.00.0

This is not a win probability. It adds up how much each play changed the points a team could expect from its field position. Kicks and returns are not counted.

Plays

    Next play

    Waiting for the snap

    Run–
    Pass–
    No call yet
    Last play

    The game has not started.

    Odds come from how every team calls this situation, shifted for how this team calls its own. This game's plays are left out.

    Passing game

    Passing

    This gameSeason

    Where the ball goes

    Season numbers are the other games this year plus this one so far. Short and deep are the stat crew's labels, so a few throws have neither.

    Team stats

    Mississippi State Alabama

    Talking points

    This season

    5.5yards a carry
    Offense

    More carries for F. Bothwell

    Runs by F. Bothwell work 52% of the time (38 of 73, 5.5 yards a carry). Every other back combined: 26% (8 of 31).

    67%of throws to him work
    Offense

    Get the ball to A. Evans III

    K. Taylor to A. Evans III works 67% of the time (32 of 48 throws, 38 caught, 11.6 yards a throw). Everything else through the air works 41%. He gets 33% of the targets.

    8%of dropbacks end in a sack
    Offense

    Protect the quarterback

    K. Taylor has been sacked on 8% of dropbacks (13 of 163), against 5% for all teams.

    53%of runs gain 4 or more
    Defense

    Close the creases

    53% of opponents' runs gain 4 yards or more against Mississippi State, against 49% for all teams. That ranks 111th of 137.

    49%of middle eight plays work against it
    Defense

    Hold the middle eight

    In the last four minutes of the first half and the first four of the second, opponents' plays work 49% of the time against Mississippi State, against 43% for all teams. That ranks 110th of 137.

    All of Mississippi State's keys

    "Today" counts every play in this game so far and updates as it goes. "This season" leaves garbage time out. Copy puts the stat on your clipboard.

    From the season so far

    Keys to the game

    Model: Alabama 80%, by about 12
    20% Mississippi StateAlabama 80%

    What Mississippi State needs to do

    67%of throws to him work
    With the ball

    Get the ball to A. Evans III

    K. Taylor to A. Evans III works 67% of the time (32 of 48 throws, 38 caught, 11.6 yards a throw). Alabama lets passes work 40% of the time (all teams 43%).

    8%of dropbacks end in a sack
    With the ball

    Keep K. Taylor clean

    K. Taylor has been sacked on 8% of dropbacks (13 of 163), and Alabama gets a sack on 10%. All teams: 5%.

    62%Alabama allows 44%
    With the ball

    Alabama takes away the run on 2nd and short

    Mississippi State's runs on 2nd and short work 62% of the time (5 of 8), and Alabama holds them to 44% (4 of 9). All teams: 68%.

    78%of throws to him work
    On defense

    Take away K. Edwards

    Small sample

    K. Russell to K. Edwards works 78% of the time (7 of 9 throws, 8 caught, 12.3 yards a throw). Everything else through the air works 48%.

    9%of Alabama dropbacks end in a sack
    On defense

    Get to the quarterback

    Alabama's quarterback has been sacked on 9% of dropbacks (11 of 129). Mississippi State gets a sack on 6%. All teams: 5%.

    Tale of the tape

    Mississippi State Alabama
    49%21st of 137 Plays that work on offense 12th of 13751%
    50%17th of 137 Runs that work 11th of 13752%
    48%29th of 137 Passes that work 23rd of 13750%
    50%17th of 137 Third downs converted 53rd of 13743%
    14%47th of 137 Big plays on offense 3rd of 13718%
    17%87th of 137 Runs stuffed for no gain 57th of 13714%
    2.7633rd of 137 Points per drive 6th of 1373.43
    42%80th of 137 Plays that work against the defense 26th of 13736%
    39%87th of 137 Third downs allowed 25th of 13731%
    6%67th of 137 Sacks by the defense, per dropback 13th of 13710%
    8%107th of 137 Sacks allowed, per dropback 113th of 1379%
    18%27th of 137 Havoc plays by the defense 23rd of 13719%
    1.8965th of 137 Points per drive allowed 58th of 1371.82

    Each key sets one team's offense against the other's defense in the same situation, using Mississippi State's 5 games and Alabama's 5 so far, garbage time left out. The bold number in the comparison is the better one, and the small number beside it is that team's rank among FBS teams. Havoc plays are losses, sacks, passes broken up and takeaways. The win chance comes from this site's power index, and it is not a betting line.

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