What if

Compare two teams

Pick any team from any season stored here, set it against any other, and play the game out on a neutral field.

First team

against

Second team

2026 season

Buffalo

2-3 Index 134th Offense F Defense D+

2026 season

Toledo

4-1 Index 69th Offense B- Defense C+

If they played

1,000 simulated games, neutral field

Toledo wins 85% of them

Average score 14-28

15% Buffalo Toledo 85%

28%decided by 7 or fewer

34%decided by 21 or more

285 to 420average total yards

0.6 to 0.5average giveaways

Each press plays a new game from kickoff. Any single game can go either way.

A what-if, not a forecast of a real game. Run or pass comes from each offense's own tendencies in that situation. The yards come from how its plays went all season against how the other defense's opponents did, with each unit's overall level set by its opponent-adjusted grade. Turnovers happen at each side's own rate, pulled toward average. Penalties, returns, injuries, weather and home field are left out, and fourth downs follow a typical coach.

Side by side

Buffalo Toledo

Overall

2-3 Record 4-1

134th of 137 Power index rank 69th of 137

F, 135th Offense grade B-, 54th

D+, 103rd Defense grade C+, 76th

129th hardest Schedule played 133rd hardest

With the ball

20.4 Points per game 42.4

4.3 Yards per play 7.0

35% Plays that work 45%

162 Passing yards per game 285

152 Rushing yards per game 201

34% Third downs converted 49%

6.4 Big plays per game 9.6

1.48 Points per drive 3.10

35% Red zone plays that work 57%

15% Runs stuffed for no gain 13%

1.2 Giveaways per game 0.6

On defense

30.6 Points allowed per game 25.6

6.3 Yards allowed per play 4.8

38% Plays that work against it 36%

258 Passing yards allowed per game 193

161 Rushing yards allowed per game 135

36% Third downs allowed 36%

7.4 Big plays allowed per game 6.0

1.79 Points per drive allowed 2.11

47% Red zone plays that work against it 33%

17% Havoc plays made 13%

0.4 Takeaways per game 0.8

How they call it

51% Runs, share of plays 48%

63% Predictability 61%

Each team's numbers are from its own season. The bold number is the better one. Ranks and grades are against the other FBS teams of that same season, so a rank from one year and a rank from another are not the same yardstick. Yards and points are plain totals, not adjusted for opponent.

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